303
FXUS64 KBRO 020534 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

* Hot conditions continue into next week. Heat indices could reach
  between 110-115 at times along the coastal counties.

* Low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms east of US-281 on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Mid-level ridging sets up over the Desert Southwest/Four Corners
into next week. This will maintain hot conditions across Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will top out each
afternoon in the upper 90s to low 100s with heat indices between 105
and 115 degrees each day with the highest heat indices will be
across the inland coastal counties. For Saturday, conditions look
be be just shy of Heat Advisory conditions, so an SPS for heat
indices of 105-110 should suffice, though some areas could see
heat indices exceeding 111 degrees briefly. Will continue to watch
in the case we need to upgrade to a Heat Advisory. Conditions
look to stay just below Heat Advisory criteria through the
remainder of the forecast, but will continue to monitor. Heat risk
will reach Major (level 3 out of 4) for portions of the Rio
Grande Valley Saturday through Monday, with Moderate (level 2 out
of 4) for the remainder of next week.

Mostly dry conditions will continue through the forecast period,
though on Tuesday a boundary moving off the central/western Gulf
coast could lead to showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
US-281. Chances of rain are 10-20% for Tuesday. Otherwise, could
see a stray sea breeze shower each afternoon but chances remain
under 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South
Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds overnight will
increase and become moderate later this morning into the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off
the lower Texas coast. Wave heights will remain at 1 to 2 feet with
3 to 5 second periods. Could see some periodic showers and
thunderstorms which could lead to localized areas of elevated winds
and seas. Tuesday will see the best chance for this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             98  79  98  79 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN              100  76 101  76 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                103  78 103  78 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        104  77 105  77 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  80  89  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     95  77  96  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...63-KC