611
FXUS64 KBRO 072338
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Hot and humid conditions are expected for Deep South Texas tomorrow,
as upper level ridging and southeasterly surface flow persists over
the region. This poses a moderate heat risk throughout the area due
to hot temperatures combined with even hotter apparent temperatures.
High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s/lower 100s,
but apparent temperatures (what it actually feels like outside)
could be over 110 tomorrow with the potential for heat
advisories. Little to no precipitation is expected, along with
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and southeasterly winds. Low
temperatures for both tonight and tomorrow should be in the upper
70s/lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Hot, humid, and precipitation-free conditions are expected to
continue through the remainder of the weekend into early next week
as upper level ridging continues and surface winds remain
southeasterly. On Tuesday, a shortwave moves over the area and a
frontal boundary with a surface low is expected to stall north of
the CWA. This will increase chances for precipitation in Deep South
Texas beginning Tuesday, with the greatest chances (approximately 30-
40%) being on Wednesday.  Chances should slightly decrease to around
20-30% on Thursday and Friday, mainly east of I-69E near the coast
due to sea breeze activity and continued shortwaves.

Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s/lower 100s with
potential heat risk concerns through the start of next week.
Temperatures should be a bit lower due to increased cloud cover
Wednesday and Thursday before gradually warming again into the
triple digits for some areas. However, low temperatures are
expected to remain fairly consistent, getting down into the upper
70s/lower 80s each night throughout the forecast period. Winds
should also remain southeasterly and generally light to moderate
throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly clear skies and breezy southeasterly winds of around 15
knots, gusting to 20-25 knots, are expected to continue through
sunset this evening before winds begin to gradually lighten to
possibly 08-10 knots, gusting to up to 15-20 knots, later tonight.
Short range high resolution models indicate a 70-80% chance of
MVFR ceilings developing at KBRO by possibly 04 Z tonight, while
lower chances at KHRL and KMFE carry a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings
through the late night and early morning hours. A TEMPO is
included for the possibility of MVFR ceilings again at KBRO
through sunrise. VFR conditions and breezy to gusty southeasterly
winds return to all terminals throughout Sunday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are ongoing and likely to
continue over the next few days due to increased windspeeds (15
knots or more) over the Gulf waters.  These should gradually
decrease Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, making marine
conditions slightly more favorable on those days.  Windspeeds are
expected to pick up again by Thursday with more SCEC conditions
possible.  Wave heights should generally be between 3 and 5 feet
through the duration of the forecast period, and winds are expected
to remain southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  94  81  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 80 100  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  92  80  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-Irish