229
FXUS64 KBRO 181122 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
622 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

As an upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners region today, a
shortwave will move across Texas, which could support a low chance
for some isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily
over western portions of the CWA.  Another opportunity for isolated
showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon, as a
slight increase in moisture is expected. With PWATs climbing to
around 1.5 inches, weak forcing along the seabreeze could trigger
some isolated convection.

The primary concern through the short term will continue to be a
high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding. Surface high
pressure over the eastern US will continue to support stronger
pressure gradients across the Northern Gulf. This setup will foster
increasing swell period and wave heights through the period.  A High
Risk of Rip Currents is in effect until Saturday evening. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect until early Saturday morning. Additional
coastal flooding may occur late Saturday afternoon ahead of high
tide, and an additional advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The combination of closed 500 mb low pressure moving slowly
through the Four Corners area and a brief surge of deep tropical
moisture from the southern Gulf of Mexico will produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the BRO CWFA Saturday
night through Monday night. The best chance for precipitation
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be on
Sunday, and given precipitable water values increasing to near 2
inches at that time, a mention of heavy rainfall may be needed in
the official forecast as the day draws closer. Dry weather will
return for Tuesday through Thursday as the aforementioned mid-
level low ejects east, the deeper moisture wanes, and 500 mb high
pressure develops over the Lone Star State.

Additionally, for the local beaches along the Lower Texas Coast,
elevated seas will warrant a High Risk of rip currents through
Tuesday, with a Coastal Flood Statement or Coastal Flood Advisory
running in tandem.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period at all
three TAF sites. Easterly to southeasterly winds are expected to
become gusty this afternoon, with gusts diminishing late this
afternoon or early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

High pressure over the eastern US will continue to support increased
pressure gradients across the Northern Gulf. This long fetch across
the Gulf will support increasing swell period and wave heights
through the short term period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
headlines will likely be needed for the Gulf waters through the
period. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Saturday afternoon,
especially for the offshore waters.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
An enhanced pressure gradient across the entirety of the Gulf of
Mexico will produce adverse marine conditions along the Lower
Texas Coast from Saturday night through Monday night. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be
needed during this time period, but mainly for the Gulf of Mexico
waters. A gradual improvement in conditions will occur for Tuesday
through Thursday as the gradient weakens and is replace by surface
high pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  72  85  73 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               85  68  86  69 /  10   0  20  10
MCALLEN                 88  71  89  71 /  10   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         85  69  87  68 /  20   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  77  83  77 /   0  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  72  84  72 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...60-BE