896
FXUS64 KBRO 081935
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
135 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Hurricane Rafael continues a westward trek across the Southern Gulf
of Mexico as a 500mb trough swings into the Plains. Model guidance
has remained split on where Rafael will go beyond the next 24 hours,
with the current NHC track now swinging it briefly north, then south
towards the Bay of Campeche. Regardless, model guidance has been
consistent on Rafael running into increased vertical wind shear and
drier air, which will gradually degrade the system over the next few
days.

No direct impacts are expected across the RGV, however, hazardous
beach and marine conditions are expected as soon as this evening.
The extent of any coastal flooding is a bit of a wild card at the
moment, with the astronomical tides already subsiding each high tide
cycle and Rafael weakening over the weekend. At this time, there
remains a High Surf Advisory, High Risk of Rip Currents, and a
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through at least 7 PM Sunday.

Outside of the tropical weather... in November... a cold front is
approaching Deep South Texas overnight tonight, with the boundary
potentially getting hung up in the vicinity or along the coast. NAM
has come in around 10 degrees cooler for Saturday, with thick cloud
cover and northerly flow. Have blended a little NAM with the NBM to
take the edge off and bring highs below normal for the afternoon,
but still reaching the low 80s for most locations. The chance of
rain still remains generally offshore, with a few short term models
bringing very brief isolated showers south with the front or just
after along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

By the start of the long term period, Hurricane Rafael is
expected to have weakened into a Tropical Storm and remain
centered over the Central Gulf of Mexico. The latest National
Hurricane Center forecast indicates this system will briefly track
north before shifting and tracking towards the Bay of Campeche.
While direct impacts are not expected for Deep South Texas, beach
and marine hazards will continue through at least Sunday evening
along the Lower Texas beaches and over the Gulf waters. Coastal
hazards will begin to improve beginning on Monday as the tropical
system shifts further away.

Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging will build over Northern Mexico,
which will maintain slightly above normal temperatures and
generally rain-free conditions through early next week. By mid
week, an upper level trough will translate across the Plains,
sending a weak cold front across the state of Texas. The latest
guidance suggest this frontal boundary will approach Deep South
Texas Wednesday evening or night. Low moisture content should
limit any precipitation chances along/ahead of the front across
most of the region, with the exception over the Gulf waters.
Otherwise, highs will range from the mid to upper 80s through
Wednesday, and in the low to mid 80s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this
evening with southeasterly winds. A cold front arrives with
northerly winds and MVFR ceilings a few hours before daybreak. VFR
ceilings may return near the end of the TAF period. Isolated
brief showers may accompany the front or follow shortly after into
mid-morning, mainly along the coastal counties.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Now through Saturday night...Hurricane Rafael remains out in the
Southern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to meander around before
diving south into the Bay of Campeche into early next week. The
system will likely weaken below hurricane strength tomorrow and
further degrade over the next few days. Long period swell and
building seas may arrive as soon as this evening and persist
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through at least 7 PM Sunday. A cold front arrives tonight with a
northerly wind shift by sunrise. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible, especially offshore.

Sunday through next Friday...Hazardous marine conditions will
continue through at least Sunday evening as Hurricane Rafael
continues to meander over the Central Gulf of Mexico. The latest
National Hurricane Center forecast indicates this system will
slowly track south and southwest towards the Bay of Campeche by
early next week. As a result, marine conditions should improve as
seas lower Monday into Monday night. Otherwise, expect light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas through the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  82  69  86 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  82  66  86 /  10  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 72  84  69  90 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  81  65  87 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  80  74  81 /  10  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  80  69  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Sunday
     afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...56-Hallman