Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
547 FXUS64 KBRO 110503 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1103 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 -Rain free and pleasant conditions continue through Thursday, with a warming trend into the weekend -Low to medium (30 to 40%) rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday along a stalling frontal boundary && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 In the wake of the week cold front that moved through the area Wednesday afternoon, light northerly winds are forecast to continue into the day Thursday. This cooler air mass looks to keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, winds look to shift back to the southeast, allowing warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday. A broad upper-level trough looks to remain over the Eastern US this weekend, with an embedded shortwave moving into the Upper Midwest Saturday. This looks to drive another surge of cold air southward, with a cold front forecast to move through Deep South Texas Sunday. Rain chances look to increase to around 30-40% Sunday as the front moves through the area. An overrunning pattern may setup behind the front, allowing increased cloud cover persist into Monday or Tuesday, though rain chances look to decrease to below 10%. Low temperatures Sunday night look to drop into the 50s to low 60s while high temperatures Monday look to range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Southeasterly return flow looks to setup again by Tuesday afternoon, allowing warmer temperatures to return by mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Latest model runs and observations have trended downwards on wind speeds tonight, especially for Cameron County. This has increased the potential for fog development overnight, given the small dewpoint depressions currently observed at all three airfields. Confidence is highest for dense fog developing at BRO, with LIFR visibility and ceilings forecast after midnight. Confidence is a bit lower at HRL as wind speeds remain slightly higher. IFR visibility and ceilings will likely develop at HRL, and LIFR conditions cant be ruled out. Winds are forecast to remain higher at MFE overnight, likely favoring development of low stratus instead of fog. This will still likely result in IFR ceilings developing before sunrise at MFE as well as IFR to MVFR visibility. Stronger northerly winds look to move into the area around or shortly before sunrise, which would likely begin to lift the fog/stratus deck. VFR conditions are forecast to return by mid morning and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds look to shift easterly to southeasterly Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Favorable marine conditions look to persist through Saturday. The arrival of a cold front Sunday will likely see winds increasing to around 20 knots and seas building to 5-6 feet. This will likely require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or a Small Craft Advisory Sunday through Monday morning. Conditions look to improve by Monday afternoon. With light to moderate winds and moderate seas likely continuing through the remainder of the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 77 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 56 76 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 58 77 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 53 76 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 72 67 76 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 74 62 80 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...60-BE