Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
948 FXUS64 KBRO 092350 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 550 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Ridging aloft keeps very low (less than 10%) probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) today through Friday. - Average temperatures today and tonight become above average tomorrow through the majority of the 7 day forecast as winds generally return out of the south-southeast, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. - Low chances of rain (15-30%) are possible over the weekend as several cold fronts arrive near to or pass through the County Warning Area (CWA). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Persistent ridging aloft is expected to maintain dry (less than 10% PoPs) conditions and plentiful sunshine across Deep South Texas today through Friday. Northerly winds gradually veer to southerly by late tonight as a surface high pressure shifts from the Deep South US to to the Southeast coast. A weak cold front approaches the northern ranchlands tomorrow afternoon and possibly moves southward into portions of the CWA overnight, briefly shifting winds out of the north late tomorrow night into Thursday morning before returning out of the south-southeast by Thursday evening. Another cold front moving into central Texas on Friday may lead to weak coastal troughing with a low (15-20%) chance of rain along the coast Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Low (15-30%) chances of rain may return on Sunday across the entire region as yet another cold front approaches and possibly passes through Deep South Texas, with coastal troughing keeping a low (15-30%) chance of rain near the coast, lingering into Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains in timing, location and strength of these upcoming cold fronts, so chances of rain and forecast temperatures (below) are subject to chance. Near average temperatures are expected today and tonight with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s and overnight lows falling to the 50s inland and 60s across the barrier islands. Above average temperatures return tomorrow and into the rest of the forecast period as winds become mainly southeasterly to southerly, with highs in the 80s tomorrow, 70s and 80s on Thursday and 80s Friday through Sunday. Following the cold front on Sunday, average temperatures are possible next Monday (in the 70s), but warm again with 80s possible on Tuesday. Overnight lows generally remain in the 50s and 60s. A low risk of rip currents continues today through the afternoon tomorrow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 About as good as it gets for general aviation takeoffs and departures for the next 24 hours. Other than patchy cirrus streaking across the sky courtesy of an upper-level shear axis, the combination of minimal low level moisture and a weak pressure gradient will maintain VFR skies and light winds, veering to the south overnight. The combination of just enough wind (3-4 knots at 10 meters) and modest starting dewpoints will preclude any fog at all Valley terminals. Could see few-scattered low VFR cumulus at Harlingen and Brownsville after noon Wednesday...with just a continuation of few-scattered cirrus otherwise. Southerly flow becomes established as well but speeds are well in hand at 10 knots or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Favorable marine conditions are anticipated over the next 7 days across the Lower Texas coastal waters as gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 ft) seas prevail through at least Saturday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on Sunday as a cold front possibly moves through, leading to potentially moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas, followed by moderate easterly winds and seas by Monday, becoming southeasterly again next Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 57 82 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 52 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 56 84 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 82 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 76 66 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 80 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION Update...52-Goldsmith