Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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236 FXUS64 KBRO 220414 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1014 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Pleasant weather conditions will prevail through the short term period across Deep South Texas as surface high pressure continues to influence the region. Expect light and variable winds through Friday morning, before gradual shift to the east and southeast Friday afternoon and night. The combination of clear skies and light winds will yield another night of efficient radiational cooling processes tonight, so I have opted to trend closer to the NBM 50th percentile to lower minimum temperatures around 1-4 degrees across the region. The return of low level southeasterly flow on Friday will result in a slightly warmer day and night, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast to low to mid 80s further inland. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the low 50s across the Northern Ranchlands to around 60 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley due to the slight uptick in moisture content. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 A quiet pattern will persist over a majority of the long term. As surface ridging shifts east this weekend, south-southeasterly flow will increase, allowing temperatures and moisture content to rise. Over the weekend and into early next week, high and low temperatures are likely to be well above normal. A shift in the dominant pattern is expected mid/late next week, however, various global ensembles disagree on a potential mid-level troughs location and timing. GEFS is anticipating this trough over the TX panhandle Wednesday, while European ensemble guidance expects the movement to be slower by a day or two. Coastal showers and increased winds mid-week are possible with this disturbance, but there is a week before this is expected to influence the area, so it will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds should be light and variable overnight, becoming calm at times. Tomorrow, winds should be light and easterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Tonight through Friday night...Favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to moderate winds and low seas. North to northeast winds will gradually shift to the east and southeast through the period. Saturday through Thursday...Southerly flow will increase late Saturday into Sunday, becoming a moderate to fresh breeze Sunday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Sunday. Winds Monday trough midweek are expected to remain moderate out of the south/southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 54 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 50 81 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 53 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 70 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...55-MM