368
FXUS64 KBRO 052349
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

 - Moderate to Major heat risk continues across all of Deep South
   Texas through early next week.

 - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Thursday with low to
   medium precipitation chances (20-60%) across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Deep South Texas remains under the influence of mid/upper level
ridging, which will maintain hot and generally rain-free
conditions. Isolated streamer showers may continue through the
afternoon hours, but should reside mainly over the Gulf waters and
near the islands. The combination of slightly above normal
temperatures and elevated dew points will result in heat index
values ranging from 100-110 degrees this afternoon and once again
Friday afternoon. Mild low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to
around 80 degrees are expected tonight and Friday night. A
moderate heat risk will continue through the end of the week.
Otherwise, isolated showers may develop once again over the Gulf
waters and immediate coast tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The heat will continue over the weekend and into the weekend as
mid/upper level ridging remains centered over Northern Mexico and
South Texas, with triple-digit temperatures likely along and west
of US-281. Outside of an isolated shower or storm associated with
the sea breeze, expect most of the weekend to remain rain-free.
Strong subsidence should result in mostly sunny skies and slightly
above normal temperatures. The ridge will shift further west late
Sunday into Monday, and while the region should remain rain-free,
precipitable water value should begin to steadily increase as
persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow transports
Gulf moisture toward the region. Heat index values will be near or
above 111 degrees across portions of the region Sunday through
Tuesday, which may result in the issuance of a Heat Advisory.
Factoring in mild nighttime lows and several days of heat, this
will result in a major heat risk (level 3 of 4) region wide
Saturday through early next week.

Fortunately, there will be some reprieve from the heat as the
ridge remains west of the region and allows for weak embedded
disturbances aloft to approach the region. As these disturbances
encounter high moisture content and instability, expect low to
medium precipitation chances to return Tuesday through Thursday.
Increased cloud cover and daily precipitation chances (30-60%)
should result in slightly lower high temperatures, mostly in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected KBRO and KMFE, with the exception of
KMFE between 07-11z. Southeasterly winds prevail throughout the TAF
period, with sustained winds of 12-15 kt decreasing to 7-10 kt
overnight, before picking up and becoming gusty at 20-23 kt by mid
day into early afternoon. Some low clouds are expected to spread
across the international border from northern Mexico overnight
tonight, with generally FEW to SCT025-035 expected across KBRO and
KHRL but BKN020-025 more probable over KMFE, particularly between 07-
11z. Given the confidence level for MVFR cigs are at 30-50%, opted
to introduce a TEMPO group as opposed to prevailing during that time
frame for KMFE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions will set up over the weekend and early next
week along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to a
locally enhanced pressure gradient. Otherwise, low rain chances
(20% or less) return on Friday over the waters, and low to medium
chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms return next Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  80  94 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  95  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 80  99  80 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  99  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  81  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  79  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...88-Chai