162
FXUS64 KBRO 232323 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
523 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Benign weather pattern expected to prevail through the short term
forecast period courtesy of continued influence from a broad 1020-
1025 hpa sfc high in place over the Gulf Coast States into the
Southeastern U.S.

Several computer models/ensembles continue to advertise a
strengthening/expanding 591 mb ridge over the western and
northwestern parts of Mexico. Given the close proximity, with our
CWA being on the eastern flank of this feature, temperatures are
expected to run warmer than normal levels.

Sunday will be our warmest day of the weekend with daytime highs
topping out in the mid to upper 80s (some 5-10F degrees above
average). It will be cooler near the coastline/beach areas (due to
the onshore flow) with highs expected to range between the upper 70s
to mower 80s. Tonight and Sunday night, overnight lows will also be
warmer than normal with values holding mainly in the 60s (lower 60s
across the Northern Ranchlands; mid to upper 60s mid to lower
RGV).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Mid-level ridging to our west will dominate for a majority of the
long term, keeping temperatures toasty and skies rain-free.
Temperatures, both high and low, are expected to remain well above
average for late November for a majority of the period with highs
in the 80s to low 90s, until a cold front on Thursday ushers in
more seasonable temperatures.

A weak cold front is expected on Tuesday bringing few impacts and
little relief from the unseasonable temperatures. The greatest
impacts of this front will be felt before and during fropa with
increased winds and a brief shift to northerly winds. Temperature
impacts are expected to be minimal, with a couple degrees of relief
shown in high temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday.

The second front, expected to pass through the CWA Thursday, is a
tad stronger and will negotiate the high temperatures down to near-
normal. Increased winds ahead of the front, beginning as early as
Wednesday night, and directional shift to northerly winds remaining
through Friday will keep temperatures comfortable. The increased
winds associated with both fronts have potential to raise coastal
concerns, including a moderate risk of rip currents, as well as
other marine hazards discussed below. Moisture will increase
Saturday as flow returns to being more south-southeasterly, however,
even the highest PoPs along the coast and over the Gulf are low
(20%).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Currently, all TAF sites are experiencing scattered VFR clouds
with a gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze. Clouds are
expected to remain scattered VFR throughout the TAF cycle with a
few MVFR clouds possible overnight. Winds should diminish after
sunset to light and variable at KBRO while KHRL and KMFE could
continue with a light southeasterly breeze. Winds will pick up to
a moderate southeasterly breeze with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots by
late Sunday morning due to an enhanced pressure gradient.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Tonight through Sunday Night...Slightly adverse marine (SCEC)
conditions are expected to develop along the Lower Texas Coast on
Sunday due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Overall, light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail with high
pressure largely in control over the south- central and
southeastern U.S.

Monday through Saturday...Moderate seas and light winds will
decrease early in the period and be generally favorable until
midweek ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate winds and seas
return midweek with Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible. A shift of winds from southerly to
northerly is expected on Thursday as the cold front crosses the
region. Rain chances are slim until the tail end of the period, with
a low chance on Friday and Saturday (20%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  84  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               62  86  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 65  88  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         62  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  81  76  82 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  83  68  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...65-Irish