Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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387 FXUS64 KBRO 081722 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1122 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 - High confidence for Marine and Coastal Hazards Friday night through the Weekend due to Hurricane Rafael. Bottom line up front...No Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches or warnings are expected along the lower Texas coast or over the coastal waters. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting for steady weakening of Hurricane Rafael beginning later today through the weekend. This cyclone will be encountering very dry air and increasing westerly shear as it approaches the central Gulf of Mexico. The steering flow breaks down and models show this system slowing down ending up meandering around 25N 92W (350 miles east of mouth of the Rio Grande)Sunday through Tuesday. The official NHC forecast shows this system becoming a remnant low (no convection) Tuesday or Wednesday with the GFS showing an earlier dissipation. Even though the forecast calls for No hurricane or Tropical storm conditions, swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause potential life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the lower Texas coast. What we can expect is deteriorating marine and coastal conditions starting tonight persisting through the weekend. For the coast, High Risk of Rip Currents will likely be the highest impact, next high rough surf coupled with minor coastal flooding especially during high tide cycle occurring around Midnight both tonight and again Saturday night. It is highly emphasized that life-threatening rip currents will occur this weekend and it is advised not to go into the water/surf. Please visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on Rafael. Besides this cyclone lurking well offshore, a weak cold front makes its way through the region late tonight or early Saturday bring with it a slight chance of a showers. Temperatures today will once again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s (7-12 degree above normal), dropping off into the 60s to near 70 Saturday morning and only cooling off to the low to mid 80s Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Hurricane Rafael is expected to begin weakening as it slowly travels west through the central Gulf. The latest NHC forecast has Rafael making a slow loop in the central Gulf early next week, before moving south towards the Bay of Campeche. Swell from this system will likely continue to support hazardous beach conditions along the Lower Texas Coast. A High Risk of Rip Currents will likely persist into early next week, and minor coastal flooding may be possible as well. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Central Plains will lift as it moves into the Great Lakes region as an upper-level ridge builds over Northern Mexico. This will likely support surface winds shifting back to the east to southeast by Monday, with continued warm temperatures going through the middle of the week. Another upper-level trough looks to traverse the Central Plains Wednesday, supporting the development of a cold front that looks to push through Deep South Texas by Wednesday night. Limited moisture ahead of the front looks to keep rain chances along this front below 15%. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s through Wednesday. The frontal passage Wednesday night will likely keep high temperatures in the low 80s Thursday afternoon. Likewise, low temperatures are forecast to range from low 60s to low 70s ahead of the front, and mid 50s to mid 60s behind it. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this evening with southeasterly winds. A cold front arrives with northerly winds and MVFR ceilings a few hours before daybreak. VFR ceilings may return near the end of the TAF period. Isolated brief showers may accompany the front or follow shortly after into mid-morning, mainly along the coastal counties. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Today through Saturday...Marine conditions begin to deteriorate later today with swells generated by hurricane Rafael moving over the coastal waters. Swells continue build through Saturday likely peaking by the end of the day or early Sunday. Small Craft Advisories have been posted beginning at 6 PM today. This long period swell train, 10 feet or greater, is likely to have the biggest marine impact with winds not being an issue as Rafael is expected to stall/meander and weaken around 25N 92W or 350 miles east of the Lower Texas/NE Mexican coast as early as Sunday. Light easterly winds today back northeast tonight and turn northerly Saturday as a weak cold front moves off the lower coast. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible along the front. Saturday night through Thursday...Adverse marine conditions are expected to continue through Sunday night thanks to persistent swell from Hurricane Rafael. The latest NHC forecast has Rafael making a slow loop in the central Gulf early next week, before moving south towards the Bay of Campeche. Light to moderate winds are expected through the period, initially out of the north, shifting to the east to southeast by Monday night. Slight to moderate seas are expected to return Monday, and continue through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 82 71 85 / 20 20 0 10 HARLINGEN 68 83 67 86 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 70 85 69 89 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 82 64 87 / 20 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 80 75 81 / 20 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 82 69 83 / 20 20 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...59 LONG TERM....60 AVIATION...56-Hallman