117
FXUS64 KBRO 052316
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
516 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The short term period will feature above normal temperatures and
generally rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas. A 500 mb low
will continue to track further east of the region tonight into
tomorrow, with surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf.
The latest radar and satellite imagery depict mostly partly to
mostly cloudy skies and generally rain-free conditions outside of
areas along the immediate coast where streamer showers have
developed. While dense marine fog has cleared out somewhat this
afternoon along the Laguna Madre, web cameras across South Padre
Island indicate areas of fog continue along the beaches and
nearshore Gulf waters. Expect areas of fog to continue overnight
along the Lower Texas beaches with visibility ranging from 2-4
nautical miles, and brief reductions to 1 nautical mile at times.
This should clear up by mid to late morning tomorrow. Otherwise,
widespread low clouds will develop across Deep South Texas tonight,
and in combination with persistent southeasterly winds, will result
in another mild and humid night with low temperatures mostly in the
60s. Some patchy fog may develop across the Northern Ranchlands and
along/east of the I-69 corridor, but widespread dense fog is not
expected at this time.

Once morning cloud cover and fog begin to clear out by late Thursday
morning or early afternoon, temperatures should warm into the 70s
along the Lower Texas beaches to upper 80s across the Upper RGV and
Rio Grande Plains. Another round of marine fog over the Laguna Madre
and Gulf waters, and patchy fog further inland cannot be ruled out
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Low temperatures will
once again fall into the 60s region wide Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Pleasant weather is expected to persist to continue over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for most of the long term forecast
period. The persistent onshore flow and clear skies that are
expected could allow for high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s for both Friday and Saturday. A 500mb low will be near the Lower
Texas Coast, which is currently expected to drift southward, before
moving off the the northeast ahead of the weak cold front that will
start to approach the region around the end of the weekend and the
start of the work week on Monday. Ahead of the front the pressure
gradient is expected to tighten and could produce some breezy winds.
Sea fog will remain possible over the next several days as higher
dewpoints will continue to exist over the cooler shelf of the Gulf
waters.

As mentioned previously, towards the end of the weekend and towards
Monday a weak cold front is expected to start to approach the
region. Models have shown some differences what could occur with the
front. The GFS shows that the front does not move into the region
actually stalling out to the north and that a surge of high pressure
is what pushes the front through on Tuesday. It should also be noted
that WPC actually does not have the front push all the way through
the region either, even by Tuesday. The current NBM forecast
projects that the front will push all the way through the region
sometime during the day on Wednesday. As such the majority of the
long term forecast will continue to have high temperatures in the
mid and upper 80s. With the front`s push delayed the chances for
rain have been pushed back towards the end of the long term forecast
period. However they still remain low (less than 30%) along the
coast and over the waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

At this time, all terminals are reporting VFR conditions with
moderate southeasterly winds and gusts up to 20-25 knots at KBRO
and KHRL underneath mainly clear skies other than scattered
streamer clouds over KBRO. Overnight, ceilings are expected to
develop and lower to possibly IFR for KBRO and KHRL while KMFE may
only see see broken MVFR clouds later in the night. Winds are
expected to be slightly elevated overnight, possibly 6-10 knots,
which could inhibit the development of patchy fog. Yet, there is
still a low to medium (20-30%) chance of patchy fog that could
briefly reduce visibility down to 3-5 SM, most likely at KBRO, but
also possibly KHRL. Have not included into the TAF`s as
confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Tonight through Thursday night...Patchy fog will continue over the
Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters tonight into early tomorrow
morning, and a Marine Weather Statement has been issued to account
for visibility between 2 to 4 nautical miles. Visibility may briefly
reduce to near 1 nautical mile at times. Otherwise, southeast winds
and generally low seas will prevail over the Laguna Madre and Gulf
waters.

Friday through Next Wednesday....Sea fog will by the main concern
for the next several days as the warmer air will move over the
cooler sea surface mainly for the Laguna Madre and the Nearshore
Gulf waters. Otherwise generally favorable conditions are expected
until around the end of the period as the pressure gradient tightens
up and the winds start to near Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions as cold front approaches the Lower Texas Coast. Some
isolated showers are possible ahead of the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  84  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               66  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 68  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  72  65  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     65  77  64  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...65-Irish