478
FXUS64 KBRO 081140 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
540 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

- High confidence for Marine and Coastal Hazards Friday night
through the Weekend due to Hurricane Rafael.

Bottom line up front...No Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches or
warnings are expected along the lower Texas coast or over the
coastal waters. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting for
steady weakening of Hurricane Rafael beginning later today through
the weekend. This cyclone will be encountering very dry air and
increasing westerly shear as it approaches the central Gulf of
Mexico. The steering flow breaks down and models show this system
slowing down ending up meandering around 25N 92W (350 miles east of
mouth of the Rio Grande)Sunday through Tuesday. The official NHC
forecast shows this system becoming a remnant low (no convection)
Tuesday or Wednesday with the GFS showing an earlier dissipation.

Even though the forecast calls for No hurricane or Tropical storm
conditions, swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause potential
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the lower
Texas coast. What we can expect is deteriorating marine and coastal
conditions starting tonight persisting through the weekend. For the
coast, High Risk of Rip Currents will likely be the highest impact,
next high rough surf coupled with minor coastal flooding especially
during high tide cycle occurring around Midnight both tonight and
again Saturday night. It is highly emphasized that life-threatening
rip currents will occur this weekend and it is advised not to go
into the water/surf. Please visit the National Hurricane Center
website at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on Rafael.

Besides this cyclone lurking well offshore, a weak cold front makes
its way through the region late tonight or early Saturday bring with
it a slight chance of a showers. Temperatures today will once again
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s (7-12 degree above normal),
dropping off into the 60s to near 70 Saturday morning and only
cooling off to the low to mid 80s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Hurricane Rafael is expected to begin weakening as it slowly
travels west through the central Gulf. The latest NHC forecast has
Rafael making a slow loop in the central Gulf early next week,
before moving south towards the Bay of Campeche. Swell from this
system will likely continue to support hazardous beach conditions
along the Lower Texas Coast. A High Risk of Rip Currents will
likely persist into early next week, and minor coastal flooding
may be possible as well.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Central Plains will
lift as it moves into the Great Lakes region as an upper-level
ridge builds over Northern Mexico. This will likely support
surface winds shifting back to the east to southeast by Monday,
with continued warm temperatures going through the middle of the
week. Another upper-level trough looks to traverse the Central
Plains Wednesday, supporting the development of a cold front that
looks to push through Deep South Texas by Wednesday night. Limited
moisture ahead of the front looks to keep rain chances along this
front below 15%.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low
90s through Wednesday. The frontal passage Wednesday night will
likely keep high temperatures in the low 80s Thursday afternoon.
Likewise, low temperatures are forecast to range from low 60s to
low 70s ahead of the front, and mid 50s to mid 60s behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are observered at all regional airports this
morning with lower clouds noted well north and west of the TAF
sites. VFR with scattered clouds and light east to southeast can
be expected today and into the early evening hours. A weak cold
front moves through the region after Midnight local time with high
probability of MVFR ceiling developing in advance of the front.
Exact timing is uncertain with the front potentially slowing down.
Winds to turn north but remain light.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Today through Saturday...Marine conditions begin to deteriorate
later today with swells generated by hurricane Rafael moving over
the coastal waters.  Swells continue build through Saturday likely
peaking by the end of the day or early Sunday. Small Craft
Advisories have been posted beginning at 6 PM today. This long
period swell train, 10 feet or greater, is likely to have the
biggest marine impact with winds not being an issue as Rafael is
expected to stall/meander and weaken around 25N 92W or 350 miles
east of the Lower Texas/NE Mexican coast as early as Sunday. Light
easterly winds today back northeast tonight and turn northerly
Saturday as a weak cold front moves off the lower coast. A few
showers or thunderstorms are possible along the front.

Saturday night through Thursday...Adverse marine conditions are
expected to continue through Sunday night thanks to persistent
swell from Hurricane Rafael. The latest NHC forecast has Rafael
making a slow loop in the central Gulf early next week, before
moving south towards the Bay of Campeche.

Light to moderate winds are expected through the period, initially
out of the north, shifting to the east to southeast by Monday
night. Slight to moderate seas are expected to return Monday, and
continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  73  82  71 /   0  20  20   0
HARLINGEN               90  68  83  67 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN                 93  70  85  69 /   0  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  67  82  64 /   0  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  76  80  75 /   0  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  71  82  69 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59-GB