179
FXUS64 KBRO 191717
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Daily low medium chances of rain return next Monday and become
   region-wide by next Tuesday.

 - Temperatures remain warm but ease off a few degrees from widespread
   areas of low 100s along/west I-69 E to mostly upper 90s by
   Tuesday.

 - Extreme risks of heat-related illnesses (level 4/4) are likely
   to continue for portions of the RGV/Rio Grande Plains while
   the rest of the region experiences moderate to major risks
   (level 2/4 and 3/4).

 - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues
   through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Will continue to see a somewhat unsettled weather pattern through
the forecast period. Aloft, high pressure will prevail over Deep
South Texas which will help suppress rain chances through the
weekend. While we could still see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, will be limited to 15% and be mainly
along the coast.

Rain chances increase as we head into the work week as a cold
front moves into central Texas. The moisture pooling ahead of this
boundary will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms,
especially along the seabreeze. As we head into to late week
models are hinting at a tropical wave moving west which help to
keep rain chances in the forecast, especially each afternoon. Best
rain chances will be Friday (up up 60%), primarily along the
coast into the mid-Valley.

Heat Risk will remain Moderate to Extreme over the next week, though
increased cloud cover and/or showers and thunderstorms could bring a
little relief. Temperatures will still remain above normal into mid
to upper 90s to low triple digits though by Thursday and Friday,
could struggle to reach the triple digits with the excess
cloudcover and rain chances. Heat indices will peak each afternoon
between 105-110 degrees.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches. The
strongest and most life threatening rips currents often occur near
jetties and piers. Use caution if entering the water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail at all aerodromes.
Can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon but chances are less than 15% so kept out of the TAF
package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail with light to moderate
southeasterly winds with seas around 2-3 ft and 6-7 second
periods. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms could lead to
locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  97  79  96 /   0  10  10  30
HARLINGEN               74 100  75  99 /   0  10   0  30
MCALLEN                 78 102  79 101 /   0   0  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         76 102  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  82  89 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  95  78  95 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...68-AM