903
FXUS64 KBRO 092332 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
532 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tropical Storm Rafael has run into unfavorable conditions, as
expected, and continues to weaken and slow down nearly 350 miles
east of South Padre. The system may meander around for the next
day or two before getting caught in the low level flow and diving
south through the Bay of Campeche.

No direct impacts are expected across the RGV, however, hazardous
beach and marine conditions are expected to continue through
Sunday. Coastal flooding may remain somewhat minor, with
astronomical tides already subsiding each high tide cycle and
Rafael weakening over the next 48 hours. At this time, there
remains a High Surf Advisory, High Risk of Rip Currents, and a
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through at least 6 PM Sunday. Next
high tides are around midnight tonight and Sunday night, with
peak water levels likely occurring tonight.

The cold front brought slightly cooler but seasonal temperatures
this afternoon and a thick cloud deck earlier that has given way
to abundant sunshine and fairly comfortable conditions. The
frontal boundary may wiggle north tomorrow slightly, bringing back
warmer temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Coastal hazards due to Rafael currently extend through Sunday, but
the beach runup and rip threats may get pushed into Sunday night or
Monday. Rafael is forecast to weaken and move into the Southwest
Gulf early in the week, which should bring and end to any direct
coastal hazards. Wave heights, however, may remain just high enough
to keep a moderate rip current risk going through around Tuesday. A
mid-week low rip risk may be short lived, however, as we head toward
a full moon and slightly rebuilding seas on the 15th.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge building over North Mexico and
extending north into the Plains early next week will help keep the
area out of significant weather. The tail end of a weak surface cold
front will push south into the Gulf under the ridge Monday and
Tuesday and will extend over the Northwest Gulf and into South Texas
as Rafael fades over the Southwest Gulf. The front won`t do much
for us and will eventually fade.

An upper-level trough will move across the Central Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will support the development of a
trailing cold front, which should move toward, if not through, deep
South Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. The push will shift east
quickly with the boundary moving north again as a warm front on
Friday. By Friday and Saturday, broad high pressure will set up over
the Southeast U.S., returning deep South Texas and the RGV to a more
typical southeast flow and autumn pattern (sans fronts).

Looking at the NBM grids used in the forecast, the best rain
chances will be Wednesday into Thursday, with isolated to low end
scattered convection with the stronger of the two fronts. QPF
amounts will not be anything to write home about, remaining low
and confined mostly to immediate frontal passage or after from the
second half of Wednesday to the first half of of Thursday. Temps
will be above average until after the Wednesday front when they
will decrease slightly but remain above average Thursday and
Friday, and trend higher on Saturday. The coolest night will be
Thursday night to Friday morning with lows in the upper 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South Texas
early this evening. Light and variable winds tonight will become
northerly on Sunday. Some low cloud decks along the coast may
drift inland, especially near the coast, later this evening into
tonight. However, confidence remains too low in mention in this
TAF cycle. Any MVFR ceilings/low clouds that develop and move
into the area tonight, should improve after daybreak on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Now through Sunday Night...Tropical Storm Rafael remains out in
the Southern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to meander around
before diving south into the Bay of Campeche into early next week.
The system will continue to weaken over the next few days. Long
period swell and elevated seas persist through the weekend. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least 6 PM Sunday and
may need to be extended into Sunday night across offshore Gulf
waters.

Monday through Thursday night...Moderate north to northeast winds
will persist Monday to Monday night, along with slightly elevated,
longer period swells. Small craft may need to exercise caution on
the Gulf waters. For the rest of the forecast, moderate northeast
to east winds and moderate seas will prevail. Much of the long
term forecast is predicated on the evolution of now Tropical Storm
Rafael, which will will remain in the West Central Gulf through
Monday before weakening and heading southwest into the Southwest
Gulf. Isolated Gulf convection will be possible from time to time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               66  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 67  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         62  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  82  75  82 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     69  84  70  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...63-KC