421
FXUS64 KBRO 032342 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
642 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Windy with another Wind Advisory Friday.

- Above Normal Temperatures

- High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories

Not much change in the overall thinking of the short-term forecast.
Breezy to windy conditions and above normal temperatures can be
expected tonight, Friday and Friday night. Cold mid-upper level
trough continues to deepen over the western CONUS combining with a
large subtropical Ridge extending from the SE Atlantic across the
Gulf. A strong pressure gradient exist between these pressure cells
which will continue to provide breezy to windy conditons for the
next 36-42 hours. As has been the case the last few days, the low
level jet (LLJ) restrengthens tonight and Friday night ahead of
surface low and cold front over the southern and Central Plains.
Models continues to indicate the LLJ peaking at 50kts each morning
which translate to strong surface winds. As the upper trough to the
west reaches its most southern apex Friday night Wind Advisory
criteria (sustained of 30-40 mph, gusts over 40-57 mph) could start
as early as 9 AM and continue well pass sunset Friday evening.

Atmospheric moisture profile remains limited and shallow, providing
mostly cloudy nights as the marine layer moves inland and mostly
sunny skies as daytime mixing allows for drier air to mix-out the
morning stratus thus rain chances remain near zero if not zero.
Temperatures remain elevated due to the robust southerly winds and
sunny daytime conditions. Overnight lows and daytime highs range 8
to 12 degrees above normal, which equates to lows in the 70s and
highs in the 90s. Can not rule out a few western Valley locations
touching 100 degrees Friday afternoon.

Finally, the strong southerly winds persisting over the coastal
waters and western Gulf to maintain high rough surf and a high risk
of rip currents at our local beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An upper-level trough looks to be situated along the front range
for the Rockies Saturday morning. As the trough shifts east, it
will help drive a cold front through the CWA Saturday. Afternoon
high temperatures may still reach the upper 80s to low 90s
Saturday, however cooler temperatures are expected behind the
front. Overnight low temperatures Saturday night are expected to
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northerly winds behind the
front will support cooler temperatures into early next week. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Sunday, slowly returning to the 80s by mid week.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf
waters Saturday and Saturday night, however rain chances over land
look to remain below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Breezy southeast winds with some low MVFR clouds near the coast.
Winds are expected to slowly decrease through this evening but
should remain breezy and gusty overnight with occasional gusts as
high as 30 knots. MVFR ceilings will return after sunset with
occasional break in the ceilings due to the strong winds aloft. A
mix of SCT to BKN low clouds between 12-16Z Friday with VFR
conditions after 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Tonight through Friday night...Enhance pressure gradient over the
coastal waters and western Gulf persist through Saturday morning
as high pressure combines with a strengthen low pressure trough
settling over the Southern Rocky Mountains and northern Mexico. A
diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds developing
overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on the Laguna
Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon hours with
slightly lower winds during the overnight hours. Seas to remain
elevated offshore even as the winds relax during the daytime
hours. Overall, hazardous marine conditions persist with no
change in the timing or placement of the Small Craft Advisories
already posted.

Saturday through next Thursday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain high through the weekend, with more favorable conditions
returning early next week. A cold front is expected to move
through the area Saturday, with strong northerly winds in its
wake. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through Sunday
night, and possibly into Monday morning as seas begin to subside.
Lighter winds are then expected to prevail through the remainder
of the period, with winds shifting back to the southeast Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  90  76  90 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  93  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  96  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  99  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  82  74  82 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  90  74  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC