832
FXUS64 KBRO 080540 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 6 OM CDT for Inland
Kenedy, Inland, Willacy, Inland Cameron, Hidalgo, and Starr Counties.

- Widespread Major (level 3 of 4) to increasing areas of Extreme
(level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will continue through early next week.

- There remains a low (20-30%) chance of sea breeze showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Hot, mainly dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue to be
the theme through early next week as an anomalously strong and
elongated 591-594 dam heat ridge complex remains anchored over the
southern U.S. This persistent and dominant feature in our pattern
will continue to foster record to near record-breaking heat over the
next several days (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). High
temperatures are progged to continue in the upper 90s to mid 100s
through the forecast period with overnight lows in the 70s to lower
80s. Peak heat indices ranging between 105-115F degrees will warrant
day-to-day or near daily Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or
Heat Advisories through this week. The combination of very hot
temperatures during the day and very warm temperatures at night
providing little relief, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk
to increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be the
case through this week (at least).

Aided by persistent southeasterly winds, low grade (20-30%) chances
for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze is possible
Tuesday through Thursday of this week as Deep South Texas sits on
the on the southern periphery of the aforementioned heat ridge. The
best chances for any showers and storms will be along and east of
IH- 69C/US-281. Additional rain chances (20-30%) are possible
Sunday through the early part of next week, according to a few
computer models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the
period, however there is a 20% chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions are
possible if any convection moves over an airfield. Southeasterly
winds are forecast to continue through Tuesday evening, with wind
speeds and gusts increasing Tuesday afternoon. Winds will likely
become light and variable Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Outside of any shower and thunderstorms, marine conditions will
remain favorable through this week with low to moderate winds and
seas (i.e. wave heights between 1-3 feet). Moderate seas are
possible over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record to near record-breaking temperatures are possible through
Saturday, courtesy of a persistent and strong 591-594 dam heat ridge
complex established over the southern U.S. Below is a list of the
record highs from Tuesday September 8th to Saturday September 12th.

Tuesday September 8, 2026:

Brownsville: 102F set in 2023
Harlingen: 103F set in 2023
McAllen: 105F in 2012

Wednesday September 9, 2026:

Brownsville: 102F in 1893
Harlingen: 102F in 2023
McAllen: 103F in 2023 & 2016

Thursday September 10, 2026:

Brownsville: 102F in 2023
Harlingen: 102F in 2023
McAllen: 105F in 2023

Friday September 11, 2026:

Brownsville: 100F in 1900 & 1893
Harlingen: 103F in 1937
McAllen: 103F in 2023

Saturday September 12, 2026:

Brownsville: 100F in 1919
Harlingen: 101F in 2011 & 1930
McAllen: 103F in 1987

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             98  80  96  80 /  20  10  30   0
HARLINGEN              101  76 100  76 /  20   0  30   0
MCALLEN                104  81 102  80 /  20   0  30   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        104  79 103  79 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  82  89  82 /  10  10  20   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     96  79  95  78 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ251>255-353.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE