109
FXUS64 KBRO 042332 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front Saturday brings cooler weather

- Gusty winds continue tonight, Saturday night

- Hazardous conditions at local beaches; High risk of rip currents,
coastal flood statement, and high surf advisory

A tight pressure gradient continues to bring strong south to
southeasterly winds as Deep S TX sits between troughing in SW
CONUS and ridging in the SE. Gusty winds will continue into this
evening with the Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM tonight, and
lessen over the day Saturday. Saturday night/early Sunday morning,
winds return to gusty (around 25kts/30mph) following passage of a
cold front.

Low temperatures tonight will remain above normal area-wide in the
mid to upper 70s. High temperatures Saturday will remain above
average, but be mellowed out by the cold front passing through
Saturday afternoon and evening. Solar insolation and strong
southerly winds will maintain highs above average, around 90. The
cold front will begin to pass through Saturday morning, and have
completely moved through land portions of the CWA by sunset. Dry air
following the front along with cool air advection will allow low
temperatures overnight Saturday to drop into the 50s.

Gusty winds, rough seas and long period swell leave a High Risk
of rip currents and Elevated Surf conditions at local beaches.
These will persist through the period. Beach runup around high
tides are being observed on live webcams at South Padre Island
thanks to elevated marine conditions - thus, a Coastal Flood
Statement is in effect until 8 PM this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures and lower humidity Sunday through
Tuesday

- Hazardous Marine condition through Monday.

A deepening cold trough over the Great Lakes extending into Texas
and a building upper ridge across the western CONUS sets the stage
for a period of below normal temperatures and comfortable
conditions. The base of the trough lingers over Texas as ridging
takes shape through Monday maintaining cold and dry air advection.
Surface and upper level ridge settles over Texas Tuesday drifting
eastward later Wednesday and Thursday. Expect below normal high and
low temperatures or below average anomalies of 10-15 degrees Sunday
through Tuesday morning followed by a warming trend for midweek.
Sunday it may struggle to reach 70, especially if clouds linger
longer. Monday and Tuesday morning look to be the coldest with lows
in the 40s to near 50 across the RGV and along the coast. Although,
not anticipating any record lows Monday or Tuesday morning which are
in the upper 30s to lower 40s, NBM 10 percentile does hint at these
numbers thus some additional lowering of lows may be necessary.
Highs next week climb through the 70s and 80s.

The lingering energy over Texas may be sufficient to provide mostly
cloudy skies starting off Sunday with some partial clearing through
the day. Not anticipating any rainfall, but some deterministic model
guidance do show 20-25% lingering along the coast early Sunday.
Overall, dry northerly winds lower dew points which will allow for
relative humidity values to crash into the 25-40% range Sunday and
15-30% Monday providing a more comfortable weather regime. Although
fire danger is still expected to be subdued due to the recent heavy
rain and rapid green-up some fine grasses could dry out in the dry
and windy environment becoming susceptible to sparks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Windy from the southeast this evening with MVFR ceilings at KBRO.
Enhanced, moderate to breezy and gusty winds will continue
tonight, expanding the low cloud coverage and MVFR conditions
across the area, though likely not any fog chances. Winds will
weaken late Saturday morning with the approach of a cold front.
Winds will veer to southwest and then northwest late Saturday
morning to early afternoon as the cold front arrives, though some
models are slightly slower with the passage. Guidance lifts
clouds already by Saturday morning, bringing back VFR conditions.
A few coastal showers may develop as the front moves through, with
slightly increased marine coverage Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Tonight through Saturday night...Gusty winds and rough seas will
create hazardous conditions through much of the period. Small Craft
Advisories through the weekend will persist as a cold front
approaches the Gulf Waters late Saturday. Winds may lessen up a bit
Saturday, gusting to around 20 kts, picking up following frontal
passage. Moisture squeezed out of the front during frontal passage
brings a low-moderate (20-40%) chance of rain overnight Saturday,
with highest chances in the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters.

Sunday through Friday...Enhance pressure gradient, this time
from the northwest and north, to provide a continuation of
hazardous marine conditions Sunday and Monday. Strong northerly
winds in wake of Saturday`s cold front may produce occasional gale
force gusts over the Gulf waters mainly Sunday morning. No gale
watch at this time with a low (10-20%) probability of wind gusts
over 40 mph, however slam dunk Small Craft Advisories are a given.
High pressure hangs back over the Southern and Central Plains
through Monday maintain a strong northerly wind and a high sea
state. For the remainder of the week, Surface ridge settles over
Texas Monday night and Tuesday before shifting eastward. Winds and
seas to gradually lower with fair marine weather anticpated later
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  76  91  56 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               92  74  92  54 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 96  76  94  58 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  71  89  52 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  78  82  57 /   0   0  10  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  77  88  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-253>255-351-
     354-355.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...54-BHM