522
FXUS64 KBRO 250828
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
228 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure is currently over the Rio Grande Valley, resulting in
dry conditions and much warmer than average temperatures today. A
weak cold front is supposed to make its way through Deep South Texas
on Tuesday, which will lower temperatures closer to a seasonal
level, though temperatures will still remain slightly above average.
Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s/lower 90s today,
with low temperatures in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday night.
After the front passes through Tuesday morning, temperatures in the
Rio Grande Valley will get up to the upper 70s/lower 80s.

There is a small chance of showers Tuesday in the Offshore Gulf
waters associated with the frontal passage, but little-to-no
precipitation is expected over land.  Winds will be light and
southeasterly today, shifting northerly (but staying light) on
Tuesday morning.  Rip current risk will be moderate in the earlier
part of Monday, but as wave heights and swell diminish throughout
the day, the risk should lessen and remain low into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

The most significant events during this portion of the total
forecast will be the Thursday and Sunday passage of cold fronts
through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Although no
precipitation will accompany the first frontal passage, and a
majority of the period in general, the Sunday cold front will have
the potential to generate convection Saturday night through the
end of the weekend.

Temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight
lows will prevail in advance of the Thursday cold front, with the
passage of this feature bringing values closer to near normal
levels from Thursday night through Friday. A return to unseasonal
temperatures will occur during the weekend in advance of the
Sunday front.

Regarding wildfire concerns, an examination of relative humidity
combined with winds at the 20-foot level suggest that Fire Weather
Watches and subsequent Red Flag Warnings will not be needed with
either frontal passage.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast suggest that a
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents may be a concern at the
local beaches for much of the long term forecast period due to the
approach and passage of the cold fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
persistent SSE winds gusting towards 20 kts late Monday morning
through Monday afternoon. Patchy fog may reduce visibility Monday
night, just beyond this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Today`s wave heights will start off around 3-5 feet with
southerly winds between 15 and 20 knots. These will diminish to
10-15 knots throughout the day Monday and sea heights will lessen
to 2-4 feet, making marine conditions turn more favorable for the
latter part of Monday. On Tuesday, a weak cold front is expected
to pass through the area, shifting winds to a northeasterly
direction between 5-10 knots. There is also a small chance of
showers (approximately 20%) on the Offshore waters in wake of a
passage of this front. While marine conditions are expected to
remain favorable overall on Tuesday, conditions could temporarily
deteriorate immediately surrounding any showers that may happen to
form over these waters.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Despite the Tuesday passage of a weak cold front, light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast until another, stronger cold front Thursday
afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed Thursday night through Friday
night, with winds and seas becoming much more favorable on
Saturday before deteriorating again on Sunday due to another
cold front passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  66  81  68 /   0   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               88  61  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 91  64  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         89  61  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  71  78  73 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     85  66  79  66 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Marcelloni-55
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66