677
FXUS64 KBRO 071909
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
209 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

High pressure has settled over Deep South Texas, resulting in clear
skies, precipitation-free conditions, and pleasant temperatures.
Tonight and tomorrow night`s low temperatures are expected to be
cool, with low temperatures in the upper 40s/lower 50s tonight, and
the low-to-mid 50s tomorrow night.  Radiational cooling due to clear
skies and light winds could result in even cooler temperatures in
localized areas. Tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be mild
and below-average, with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Winds will
be light and variable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A fairly quiet weather pattern sets across South Texas through next
weekend with high pressure ridging dominating the region. A highly
amplified mid-level eastern trough, western ridge pattern will be
slow in progressing the next several days. Large scale ridge over
the Inter-mountainwest maintains a dry northwest flow over Texas.
The ridge gets squashed south to southeast dominating Texas as we
move into the weekend and next week as an upstream trough moves in
from the Pacific Northwest and the trough in the east moves off the
Atlantic coast.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement with this
pattern which will translate to a benign and persistent forecast for
all of Deep South Texas and our adjacent coastal waters. A slow
gradual increase in temperatures and humidity will be briefly
interrupted by a weak cold front or bridging surface high pressure
Friday.  Warming trend resumes Saturday with the temperatures
trending above normal next Sunday or Monday. Overall,   Seasonal
temperatures (highs in the 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s) with
seasonal humidity and a weak to moderate pressure gradient are
expected through the work week into Saturday. Slightly higher wind,
and warmer temperatures for next Sunday and Monday are in the
trending forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected over all airports as
high pressure settles in over the area. Light to moderate winds
will gradually shift from a northwesterly to a northeasterly
direction this afternoon by 23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Tonight through Tuesday...Marine conditions will continue to
improve overnight, becoming favorable by morning. Marine
conditions will remain favorable tomorrow into tomorrow night,
with light to moderate northerly winds turning southeasterly
tomorrow night.

Wednesday night through Monday... Initial Surface high pressure
settles over the Central Gulf Wednesday and Thursday providing a
light to moderate southerly flow and a low sea. Models suggest
another surface high building south through Texas and into the
Western Gulf Friday and Saturday before settling to the next
weekend. Light to moderate north to northeast winds and moderate
seas midweek will be followed by a return of onshore south winds
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             51  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               48  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         49  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      60  73  65  76 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     52  76  57  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...55-MM