120
FXUS64 KBRO 241844
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
144 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A mid-level ridge conditons to be the dominate influence for the
weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short
term forecast. This will result in a lack of rain chances for the
region, even though there will be southeasterly winds at the surface
that will bring in more warm and moist air. This will bring above
normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 90s and a few locations
could reach into the triple digits. While the heat indices are
mostly below the criteria for Heat Advisory with the heat indices in
the range of 106 to 108. There are a few places that could get close
to 111 or above for a short period of time, thus a Heat Advisory
might be needed for tomorrow. However, confidence is not high at
this point. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow
night are expected to be mostly in the 70s while southern parts of
the CWA could be in the low 80s.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to
produce a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

High pressure in place over Deep South Texas shifts east into next
week as a trough moves through the Midwest bringing a series of
short waves and cold front into Central Texas by Wednesday. With
plenty of moisture available, rain chances will increase Tuesday
night with unsettled weather continuing through the period.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the period.
Heat indices will be highest in the first part of the period with
feels like temperatures between 105 and 110 degrees. Increased cloud
cover by midweek and rain chances will keep heat indices slightly
lower, generally between 100 and 106 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR TAFS are expected to persist through the afternoon and into
the early part of the overnight hours before the southeasterly
flow brings more low-level clouds. This will likely result in MVFR
conditions for the TAF sites. However VFR conditions are likely to
return by tomorrow morning. Southeasterly winds are expected to be
breezy for a most of the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Tonight through Sunday Night...Moderate southeasterly
winds and seas are expected to continue to persist through Sunday
night. With a slightly enhanced pressure gradient over the Lower
Texas Coast, it is possible that a Small Craft Exercise Caution
could be needed during the period especially for the Laguna Madre.

Monday through Friday...Slightly adverse marine conditions
will continue through early Tuesday with an enhanced pressure
gradient over the coastal waters with Exercise Caution expected. The
pressure gradient relaxes on Tuesday afternoon with favorable
conditions returning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday evening through Friday that could locally enhance winds and
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  80  92 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               78  95  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 81  98  81  98 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 100  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  86 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  79  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...64-Katz