058
FXUS64 KBRO 200334
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1034 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The mid-level ridge continues to gradually retreat into the Four
Corners by late week, as Hurricane Erin swings by the US East
Coast. This leaves weaker pressure at 500mb along the western
Gulf. Moisture builds through the weekend into early next week as
a weak coastal low and coastal trough persist along the lower
Texas coast. This sets up multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall
each day through the forecast period, with the highest POPs
topping 50-60 percent Thursday and Friday. High pressure returns
towards the western Gulf by mid next week cutting down rain
chances.

Overall, there does not appear to be much flow at the surface
either, with most convection developing along the sea breeze or
any meandering or colliding outflow boundaries. The convective
activity today featured strong outflow boundaries running away
from most storms fairly quickly at 40-50 mph, with a near severe
57 mph gust at MFE. Slower moving storms with abundant moisture
increases the flooding rain threat. At the moment, WPC has dipped
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall across
portions of the ranchlands Thursday through Thursday night.

Temperatures remain near normal, with highs gradually dropping a
degree or two each day through the forecast period where heavy
rain persists or gets kicked up early, and lows remaining warm.
Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day. Patchy fog
may develop each night and early morning, especially across the
eastern ranchlands and coastal counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with easterly winds and another round of convection
possible late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon,
especially near the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

With generally weak flow across coastal waters, expect generally
favorable marine conditions through the forecast period. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms persists offshore into next
week, working closer to the coast each night and early morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  94  77  96 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN               74  95  73  97 /  20  40  10  20
MCALLEN                 78  98  77 101 /  30  50  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  98  76 102 /  30  50  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  88  79  89 /  20  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  91  76  93 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman