499
FXUS64 KBRO 040605 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
105 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend,
with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain-
free. Some CAMs increase the chance for thunderstorms in the
evening near Zapata County and across portions of the ranchlands
on Saturday, with a pocket of moisture and increased instability
across the brush country. Otherwise, expect near normal highs and
lows. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat
Risk across the RGV on Independence Day and Saturday.

With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very
borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft
and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will maintain
a moderate rip current risk into Saturday morning for some
additional awareness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW into next
week, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along the lower
Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back some rain
chances. Above normal PWATs return through Wednesday, increasing
POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent, mainly along the sea
breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier air arrives by late
week as high pressure briefly builds again. Expect near to
slightly above normal temperatures through mid week, with above
normal temperatures by late week. Minor (level 1 of 4) to briefly
Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. Low clouds will increase overnight
leading to periods of MVFR ceilings through around mid-morning.
VFR conditions and breezy southeast winds are expected later
this morning into the afternoon. some gusts near 30 knots will be
possible in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Now through Next Friday...Surface high pressure generally holds
across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate
southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to
gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through
Friday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore taper off
tonight and return again Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  79  90  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               93  76  92  75 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 94  78  93  78 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  79  86  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC