816
FXUS64 KBRO 041718
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure over the Gulf continues to maintain mostly dry
conditions. There is a low chance of precip this evening into
tonight in western counties (Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg) as convection
to the north brushes the CWA. A similarly low chance of precip on
Saturday (<15%) for northwestern portions of the CWA. Breezy winds
today and tomorrow along the coast and into mid-upper RGV with gusts
up to 25 mph possible; no concern for wind advy, but important to
keep in mind for Independence Day celebrations into this evening.

Despite below average high temperatures in the low 90s, a Moderate
Risk (Level 2 of 4) of heat-related impacts persists tomorrow as
"feels like" temperatures climb into the triple digits, up to mid-
100s, primarily east of US Hwy 281. Lows overnight are seasonable in
the mid to upper 70s.

At local beaches, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is in place
through at least Saturday morning with elevated winds and swell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure building over the desert SW will allow for moisture to
return into the region. There exists a chance each afternoon,
especially early in the long term, for showers along the coast
associated with the sea breeze.

Come midweek, high pressure building over South Central TX will
bring subsidence and leave little room for precip the remainder of
the period. Subsidence and increased sunshine may the bring
temperatures to or above normal, with at least a Minor Risk (Level 1
of 4) of heat related impacts expected through the long term.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the mid-upper 70s will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions and southerly flow prevails. Gusty winds around 25
kts at all sites expected to continue into the evening. Overnight,
winds lessen. VFR is expected through the overnight, with a low
chance of MVFR to temporarily IFR conditions due to low clouds
possible between 06Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Tonight through next Friday...Gusty, moderate southeasterly winds
are maintaining seas of 3-4 ft. Seas are expected to lessen
overnight as winds lighten up, however, breezy (gusts around 20
kts) conditions return tomorrow. There is a low chance (10-20%) of
showers in the northern Gulf waters tomorrow. Sunday, high
pressure over the region settles in and allows for gentle to
moderate southeasterly flow and slight seas. Low chance of precip
returns early next week as an inverted trough approaches from the
Gulf, but should be overtaken by high pressure over TX midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  79  90  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               93  76  92  75 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 94  78  93  78 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  76  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  79  86  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK