248
FXUS64 KBRO 111123
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The Coastal Flood Advisory has been cancelled for Lower Texas Gulf
facing beaches as tides subside, however, a Coastal Flood
Statement has taken its place and is in effect until 7 AM Sunday.
Narrow beaches and brief periods of overwash are possible, and
will be most likely in the hours surrounding high tide (11:57
PM). Predicted MHHW levels at SPI Brazos Santiago in recent nights have
been underforecasted by various guidance, but with an overall
downward trend of predicted water levels during high tide, opted
for a Coastal Flood Statement for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

After several days of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms,
a much more tranquil weather pattern will become established and
persist. This will be due to 500 mb high pressure, the center of
which will ease northeast from Mexico to the Lone Star State, but
remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. Dry weather is anticipated for the BRO CWFA for
the vast majority of the period. However, a shot of convection is
forecast for Tuesday, as a burst of deeper tropical moisture moves
from the southeast out of the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of
America.

Temperature-wise, although no extreme values are forecast, daytime
highs and overnight lows will run above normal for this time of
year.

Finally, at the local beaches, an elevated risk of rip currents is
likely through at least the middle of the new work week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the cycle, with light
and variable winds becoming primarily north-northeasterly
Saturday morning. Light winds have allowed shallow ground fog
development at all sites this morning ranging from IFR to VFR (1
3/4 to 6 SM) vsby conditions. Increasing winds and daytime heating
will mix out said fog by late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected
along the Lower Texas Coast throughout the period courtesy of
persistent high pressure over the western Gulf of America. Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not
likely to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  70  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  77  84  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  70  86  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...69-HK