040
FXUS64 KBRO 262313 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as the region
remains under the influence of a mid level trough/low. The 12Z
BRO upper air sounding observed a precipitable water value of 2.23
inches, which is above the 90th percentile for July 26th. The
combination of high moisture content, diurnal instability, and
weak forcing for ascent will continue to allow for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through tomorrow
evening. While severe weather is not expected, anyone spending
time outdoors should keep an eye on the weather as lightning is a
threat with all thunderstorms. The main threats with any showers
or thunderstorms will be brief, locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to around 20-40 MPH. Otherwise, the increase in cloud cover
should result in high temperatures closer or slightly below
seasonal normals for late July.

Generally rain-free conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures will return by Monday and persist through much of
next week. In combination with the humidity, heat index values
will range from around 100-110 degrees each afternoon. Expect a
minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk to
continue across Deep South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Scattered to broken VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the 00Z TAF cycle across all sites, with breezy southeasterly
winds gradually lessening beyond sunset this evening. Overnight,
there is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of brief intervals of
MVFR ceilings, followed by the potential for MVFR ceilings and/or
reduced visibility from heavy rain and gusty winds within quick-
hitting thunderstorms throughout Sunday morning and afternoon
hours. The best chances for convection on Sunday exists for KHRL
and KBRO, however confidence is low (20% chance) and a stray
shower or thunderstorm at KMFE can not be ruled out. Southeasterly
winds pick back up by late Sunday morning, possibly to 10-15
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with low to
moderate seas and light to moderate southeasterly to southerly
winds. Low to medium (20-40%) precipitation chances continue
through Sunday, with rain-free condition expected to return on
Monday and prevail through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  93  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  95  76  96 /  10  20   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  97  78  99 /  10  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  97  77  99 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  80  88 /  10  20  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  78  93 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...65-Irish