553
FXUS64 KBRO 242317 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
517 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 123 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure to our west will keep the RGV warm and dry through
the short term. High temperatures for the remainder of Sunday and
Monday will be 10-15 degrees above normal, reaching the upper 80s
today. Monday, some areas along the I-69C corridor could see
highs in the lower 90s. Low temperatures will also remain well
above normal, dipping into the 50s and 60s overnight. I opted to
blend low temperatures with NBM 25th percentile to account for
radiational cooling, as NBM has been overestimating lows.

Southeasterly winds will be gusty during the day and into tonight
as a weak front approaches. Winds will remain light and
southeasterly until overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, when
winds will shift to a northeasterly flow as the front passes. An
increased swell in the Gulf will bring a moderate risk of rip
currents tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

- Key messages

 Two cold fronts will pass through deep South Texas and the RGV
on Tuesday and Thursday. Meager to no precipitation is expected
with either front. A third front may arrive Sunday to early next
week, with slightly better rain chances in an overrunning pattern.

 The Tuesday front will lower temps 5 to 10 degrees, which will
nonetheless remain above normal. The Thursday front will lower
temps closer to normal from Thursday night through Saturday and
Sunday.

 The combination of 20-foot winds, relative humidity values, and
fuel dryness suggest that fire weather watches and warnings will
not be likely.

 Rip current risk along the lower Texas coast will elevate due to
stronger winds and higher seas associated with the cold fronts.

A modest cold front will push south to the coast Tuesday morning,
but will have minor effect on local weather conditions. A few
showers may develop across the marine areas as the front edges
into the Gulf. Temps will lower 5 to 10 degrees with the ECMWF
being the more aggressive of the long range models. Strong Gulf
high pressure interacting with lower Plains pressure will turn
the front back north fairly quickly, and by Wednesday moderate
southeast to south winds will again blow, and temps will rebound
to well above average.

A slightly stronger cold front will arrive on Thursday. Based on
experience, the cooler and thinner wedge of plains air pushing
into the region may outpace the models by a few hours. As well,
I blended in the NBM25 to lower temps just a bit to account for
model lag. Breezy north winds will arrive on Thursday but once
again the best rain chances will manifest over the Gulf. High
pressure will settle over the area through Friday and a coastal
trough may develop; this is fairly common in the wake of colder
air pushing out over the northwest Gulf . Rain chances will be
enhanced -- isolated to scattered showers -- along the coast
through Saturday, when high pressure will again turn north winds
to south.

Yet another surge of Plains high pressure will bring a front
into the region on Sunday. This front will potentially lower
temperatures to below normal. The associated overrunning pattern
will enhance light rain chances in connection with coastal
troughing for at least a couple of days into the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
limited cloud cover and persistent SSE winds occasionally gusting
above 20 kts, mainly late Monday morning through Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tonight through Monday night...Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions with 15-20 knot gusty winds will continue tonight.
Winds will gradually decrease overnight, however, leaving
favorable marine conditions by late Monday morning. Monday
afternoon, waves of 2-4 ft and light southerly flow will persist
until pre-sunrise Tuesday, where northeasterly flow following a
passage of a weak front sets up.

Tuesday through Friday night...An early Tuesday cold front will
bring a brief shift to northeast and east winds for the day, but
no hazards. Moderate to fresh south winds and moderate to high
seas will develop on Wednesday ahead of a Thursday cold front.
Small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft
advisory conditions will be possible on Wednesday. Winds will
become moderate to fresh north late Thursday behind a cold front
and seas will build, with small craft advisory conditions possible
Thursday night and Friday. Conditions will slowly improve Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  86  67  81 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               61  87  62  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 65  91  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         61  89  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  82  72  78 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  85  66  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...56-Hallman