768
FXUS64 KBRO 101730
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Daily low (20-30%) precipitation chances, mainly along and east
   of US-281/I-69C each afternoon along the sea breeze.

 - Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected to continue
   through mid August, with heat index values ranging from 100-110
   degrees each afternoon.

 - Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk continues through the week
   across Deep South Texas, with a few areas reaching major (level
   3 of 4) heat risk heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Seasonably hot and humid weather conditions will continue across
Deep South Texas through at least the next 7 days, with daily low
(20-30%) chances for showers/thunderstorms associated with the sea
breeze each afternoon. The upper level pattern remains largely
unchanged over the next few days, with two areas of high pressure
remaining centered over the Desert Southwest and Southeastern US,
respectively. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance over the western Gulf
will continue to translate from the Mid/Upper Texas Coast further
inland. Subtle weakness aloft associated with this feature,
diurnal instability, and weak forcing along the sea breeze will
likely result in isolated showers or thunderstorms each afternoon
during the peak heating hours of the day. It is difficult to
pinpoint which areas will see showers or thunderstorms each day
due to the isolated nature. Any activity that develops will be
capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Rain chances
decrease to around 20% or less Thursday and Friday, with rain-free
conditions returning by the weekend as center of mid level high
pressure over the Southeastern US shifts westward.

Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain
elevated dew points/humidity throughout the week. In combination
with afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 90s
along the immediate coast to triple-digits further inland, heat
index values will range from 100 to 110 degrees each afternoon.
Portions of the region may begin to reach Heat Advisory criteria
(heat index of 111 degrees or higher) over the weekend. Regardless
of the issuance of any heat products, there will be a minor to
moderate heat risk through most of the week, before increasing to
a moderate to major heat risk Thursday through the weekend.
Continue to practice heat safety to prevent heat-related illnesses
and always look before you lock!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites as
the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Southeast
winds around 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots will
continue through the afternoon hours before winds fall below 5-10
knots tonight. Isolated convection may develop along the sea
breeze this afternoon, but confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through next
week with light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate
seas. Low precipitation chances (20-30%) will exist each day over
the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Expect locally enhanced winds
and seas within any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  96  79  96 /  10  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               75  98  75  98 /  10  20   0  20
MCALLEN                 78 101  79 101 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 102  78 102 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  81  89 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  94  78  94 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...22-Garcia