398
FXUS64 KBRO 201130 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The approach, intrusion, and
dissipation of a weak cold front into the BRO CWFA will dominate
this portion of the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area
in a general risk of thunderstorms. The best chance of rainfall is
progged for Monday morning, as the stalled front combines with the
passage of a weak 500 mb shortwave overhead.

Temperature-wise, near normal daytime highs are forecast courtesy of
the chance for precipitation and associated enhanced cloud cover.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a
High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until around sunrise
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A small upper level shortwave will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout Deep South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday
of next week, with the best chances being in the western counties
(up to 50% on Tuesday and around 20% on Wednesday).  A small chance
of precipitation will remain for the Ranchlands counties on Thursday
as well, but the rest of Deep South Texas is expected to be dry.
Friday into the weekend is expected to be completely rain-free as
zonal flow persists with high pressure to the south.

Winds should be southeasterly throughout the duration of the
forecast period, with the highest winds expected on Thursday as the
pressure gradient slightly tightens.  Temperatures are expected to
be warm and around seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s
throughout the forecast period.  Southeasterly winds will bring
higher humidities to the area, but there are no heat risk concerns
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Only minor adjustments made to the previous issuance of TAFs. MVFR
to VFR will continue to prevail at the aerodromes through the next
24 hours. A TEMPO has been retained for afternoon convection,
generated by the approach of a weak cold front. Generally light
winds and mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Today through Monday...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around
18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas of 7.5 feet with a
period of 7 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Adverse marine
conditions, requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory, will occur along the Lower Texas Coast today
through tonight due to a recent enhanced pressure gradient. Winds
and seas will then improve for Monday as the approach and
dissipation of a weak cold front results in a lesser pressure
gradient.

Monday Night through Sunday...Southeasterly winds will prevail, and
conditions should be slightly adverse Monday night through
Wednesday.  On Wednesday, winds will slightly increase and seas will
slightly build and small craft may need to exercise caution through
Friday, when conditions will slightly improve again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  72  84  72 /  30  30  60  10
HARLINGEN               87  69  85  70 /  40  30  60  10
MCALLEN                 88  73  89  73 /  40  20  60  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         85  69  89  72 /  20  10  50  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  72  79  73 /  30  30  50  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  71  83  71 /  30  30  50  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$