714
FXUS64 KBRO 291749
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the Bay of Campeche and is
expected to come ashore along the Mexican coast this evening. No
impacts are expected for Deep South Texas, except that we may see
elevated risks of rip currents and an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow due to the unsettled,
moisture-heavy tropical airmass in place over the area. Current
guidance is showing high PWAT values (over 2 inches) for the next
few days due to this heavily moist airmass. Subsequently, the
chances of precipitation tomorrow throughout Deep South Texas are
moderate to high (60-80%) with the highest chances being east of
I- 69C. Precip chances will also be between 20-40% tonight and
tomorrow night as well.

Due to increased cloud cover and higher precip chances, tomorrow`s
high temperatures will be below seasonal values, with highs getting
up into the upper 80s.  Lows will remain fairly consistent in the
mid-70s both tonight and tomorrow night.  Because the air is so
humid, it will feel like it is in the upper 90s tomorrow due to heat
indices around 10 degrees above the actual temperatures.  Winds will
remain southeasterly and skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents tonight, tomorrow, and
tomorrow night due to Tropical Storm Barry swell, so beachgoers
will need to exercise caution if swimming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to steadily decrease
Tuesday through Thursday as Tropical Storm Barry continues to
move inland and away from the region. On Tuesday, there will be a
moderate (30-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout
Deep South Texas. Chances will decrease to around 30% east of
I-69C on Wednesday and 20% on Thursday. By Friday, Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley should be precipitation-free,
which should continue into the weekend as PWAT values continue to fall
and higher pressure settles into the area.

Temperatures are also expected to gradually warm throughout the week
from the upper 80s on Tuesday to the upper 90s by Saturday. Lows
will remain in the mid to upper 70s.  Heat indices are also expected
to gradually increase throughout the week as winds will remain south-
southeasterly, channeling humid Gulf air into the region. Therefore,
heat risk will steadily increase throughout the week as the
temperatures and heat indices rise.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all airports, with the potential
for showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and thunderstorms
immediately impacting area airports could temporarily deteriorate
conditions to MVFR or below. Winds are expected to stay
southeasterly and could be gusty at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Current buoy observations show Small Craft Advisory conditions in
the Southern Bay and Gulf waters, which is expected to decrease
to SCEC conditions by later this afternoon. Therefore, a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect until 4 pm this afternoon only for the
Southern Gulf and Bay waters, with Small Craft Exercise Caution
Conditions ongoing in the Northern waters. SCEC conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in all waters due to a
tighter pressure gradient created by Tropical Storm Barry as it
comes ashore, creating higher windspeeds and wave heights.
Tomorrow, conditions should slightly improve but there could be
lingering higher seas due to arriving swell from the tropical
system. Once TS Barry moves inland and away from the area, seas
should continue to improve, and should return to favorable by the
middle of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  76  85  77 /  70  40  80  40
HARLINGEN               91  74  86  74 /  70  30  80  40
MCALLEN                 93  76  88  76 /  60  20  80  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  74  85  74 /  40  20  70  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  77  85  79 /  70  40  80  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  75  85  76 /  70  30  80  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-150-170.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM