Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Versions:
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FNUS71 KBOX 170847
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Leyden WMA prescribed fire...Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
447 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will still govern weather conditions near the
prescribed burn site today. Expect full sunshine and a modest
north to northeast wind. Although mixing depths are very low to
start owing to the chilly temperatures carrying over from the
overnight, expect better mixing by mid morning as temperatures
rise and solar heating continues. With high temperatures in the
upper 50s, lowest afternoon relative humidities are expected to
range between 40 and 45 percent.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Dewpoint............33.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming north 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph late in the morning
becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 6 mph
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (30900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................12 increasing to 22 to 30, then increasing to
33 to 40 early in the afternoon increasing to
43 early in the afternoon decreasing to 31
decreasing to 20 late in the afternoon
decreasing to 10.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1 0 0 1 10 9 3 2 1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............38 42 47 51 53 55 55 56 55
Dewpoint........31 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 35
RH..............76 70 58 50 46 43 45 43 47
Heat index (F)..36 40 46 51 53 55 55 56 55
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9
Surface wnd dir.N N N N N N N N N
Surface wnd spd.3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 5
Surface wnd gst.7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.8 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.7 1.9 1.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7
LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
ADI.............12 22 30 33 40 43 31 20 10
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 15 20 23 28 31 21 13 7
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear. Patchy frost after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............33 decreasing to 30 early in the morning.
Min apparent temp...26.
Surface winds (mph).North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 7 mph
around midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 7 mph
around midnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3 to 6.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5
Weather cov..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type.... FST FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............51 47 43 42 40 39 38 36 35 34 33 32
Dewpoint........35 35 35 35 34 34 33 32 31 30 30 31
RH..............54 63 73 76 79 82 82 85 85 85 89 96
Heat index (F)..51 46 41 40 38 36 34 31 30 29 27 26
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 6
20 FT wind gust.8 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10
Surface wnd dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Surface wnd spd.5 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 6
Surface wnd gst.8 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 13 13
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 7
ADI.............3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 4 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny. Patchy frost early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 36 late in the afternoon.
Min apparent temp...24.
Surface winds (mph).North winds 5 to 7 mph becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (32900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6 to 12 increasing to 17 late in the morning,
then increasing to 27 increasing to 40 to 46
early decreasing to 24 to 33 decreasing to 13
late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............31 30 32 37 44 50 55 58 60 61 61 60
Dewpoint........31 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 36
RH..............100 100 100 85 68 56 47 42 39 38 39 41
Heat index (F)..25 24 26 32 41 48 55 58 60 61 61 60
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 3
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 7
Surface wnd dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Surface wnd spd.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 3
Surface wnd gst.10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.13 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 9
LVORI...........9 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
ADI.............6 12 12 17 27 40 42 46 46 33 24 13
Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 4 12 19 28 29 33 33 23 16 9
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...Benjamin Mazzei
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424327.0/BOX
.DELDT 10/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ben.mazzei@mass.gov