876
FNUS71 KBOX 092157
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Middleton Wild FIre...Massachusetts Emergency Management
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
457 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0000 EST on November 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty NW winds will diminish this evening, becoming calm
overnight. Sunday winds will be out of the SW, lighter than
today 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative
humidities on Sunday will be slightly higher than today, around
30 percent. Rain arrives after 8pm on Sunday and exits by 7am
Monday.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............22 increasing to 31.
Min apparent temp...21.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph
                    through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 14 to 21
                    mph early.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (50100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 8 increasing to 15 late in the morning,
                    then increasing to 35 to 44 increasing to 54
                    early in the afternoon decreasing to 44 to 48
                    increasing to 56 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 12 to 14.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......23 decreasing to 16.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southwest up to 5 mph
                    through early afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  11  10  15  22  35  44  59  52  65  69  77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............25  26  32  39  45  49  52  55  56  57  55  53
Dewpoint........20  20  21  21  21  22  23  24  26  27  29  31
RH..............81  78  63  48  38  34  32  30  31  31  37  43
Heat index (F)..21  22  27  35  41  46  52  55  56  57  55  53
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.7   7   9   12  14  16  17  18  18  18  17  17
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   4   5   7   8   10  10  11  11  11  10  10
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.3   3   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8   8
Surface wnd gst.7   7   9   12  14  16  17  18  18  18  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 1.3 0.8
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   12  16  17  20  20  21  20  16  14
LVORI...........5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
ADI.............3   8   6   15  35  44  54  44  48  56  14  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   4   11  24  31  40  46  50  42  18  9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  23  21  19  19  19  18  18  17  17  16

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening, then
                    rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 81 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 50.
Max apparent temp...54.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 to 13.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......14 decreasing to 12 early, then decreasing to
                    9.0 late in the evening decreasing to 6.3
                    decreasing to 4.5 decreasing to 2.7 decreasing
                    to 0.9 decreasing to 0.8 after midnight
                    decreasing to 0.7 increasing to 0.9 early in
                    the morning.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82  80  80  85  90  94  95  96  95  95  99  100
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC LKY DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   30  30  30  30  30  30  80  80  80  80  80
Temp............52  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  51  52  53  54
Dewpoint........32  34  37  40  42  44  46  49  49  49  50  51
RH..............46  54  61  68  74  80  86  96  93  89  89  90
Heat index (F)..52  47  47  47  47  47  48  48  51  52  53  54
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   7   7   8   9
20 FT wind gust.16  16  15  15  14  14  14  14  15  15  16  17
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   7   7   8   9
Surface wnd gst.16  16  15  15  14  14  14  14  15  15  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  14  13  14  17  14  14  13  14  14  15  15
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   5   5   5
ADI.............8   9   8   9   12  9   9   8   9   9   13  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   9   12  10  14  10  9   8   9   10  12  14
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...15  14  12  9.0 6.3 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9

.VETERANS DAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy then becoming mostly sunny. Chance of
                    rain in the morning. Slight chance of rain.
                    Patchy fog early in the morning.
CWR.................81 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Dewpoint............53 decreasing to 47 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...65.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    through early afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 25 mph shifting to the west
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (103000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (38500 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to excellent
                    (122900 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................18 to 27 increasing to 35 early, then
                    increasing to 48 late in the morning increasing
                    to 63 to 72 increasing to 77 to 85 decreasing
                    to 74 early in the afternoon increasing to 90
                    decreasing to 12 to 15 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......1.2 increasing to 20.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    through early afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 81  68  53  39  31  24  17  14  10  7   7
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  54  57  59  62  64  65  65  65  64  62  60
Dewpoint........51  54  54  54  55  53  51  49  49  48  47  46
RH..............90  100 90  83  79  68  61  56  57  57  58  59
Heat index (F)..54  54  57  59  62  64  65  65  65  64  62  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.17  18  20  21  23  23  24  24  23  21  20  17
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  11  12  13  14  14  14  14  14  13  12  10
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.9   10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  10  10  9
Surface wnd gst.17  18  20  21  23  23  24  24  23  21  20  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  16  20  22  25  26  26  28  25  24  22  18
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
ADI.............18  27  35  48  63  72  77  85  74  90  15  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  22  31  49  70  88  103 123 100 83  64  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD GD  GD  PR
Ceiling (kft)...1.2 1.4 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 9.0 14  20  20

$$
Forecaster...BRW
Requested by...Paula Cutten
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426206.0/BOX
.DELDT 11/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Paula.Cutten@mass.gov