373
FNUS71 KBOX 081939
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Middleton Power Lines Brush Fire...MEMA
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
239 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 EST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions prevail through Saturday. Gusty west winds are
expected the rest of today, then a strong cold front will move
through this evening followed by a period of gusty northwest
winds overnight into Saturday.

Lowest relative humidities will range from 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, and 25 to 35 percent Saturday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...Sunday through Wednesday...

High pressure moves east of the region Sunday. Low pressure
tracking across the Great Lakes into Quebec/northern New England
will bring a period of showers sometime late Sunday into early
Monday. High pressure builds back into the region later Monday
into the middle of next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Max apparent temp...60.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to around 32
                    mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to around 32
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (68400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................91 decreasing to 32 to 36 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 4.5.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 9 mph with gusts to around 19
                    mph.

TIME (EST)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  24  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0
Temp............60  58  56
Dewpoint........36  36  37
RH..............41  44  49
Heat index (F)..60  58  56
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  14  13
20 FT wind gust.32  32  32
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.9   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.19  19  19
Surface wnd dir.W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.15  14  13
Surface wnd gst.32  32  32
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 3.3 3.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W
Transp wind spd.32  26  24
LVORI...........1   1   1
ADI.............91  36  32
Haines index....2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..117 76  68
Ventrate Cat....VGD GD  GD
Ceiling (kft)...20  9.0 4.5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........59 percent.
Dewpoint............34 decreasing to 24.
Min apparent temp...29.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (87800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (57200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................31 to 36 increasing to 36 to 42 in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......4.5 increasing to 25.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    19 mph.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  38  26  20  17  10  6   6   4   3   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  55  53  50  47  45  44  42  41  40  39  38
Dewpoint........36  36  34  33  30  29  27  26  25  25  24  24
RH..............50  49  48  52  51  53  51  53  52  55  54  57
Heat index (F)..54  55  53  45  41  39  38  35  33  32  31  29
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  13  13  14  13  14  14  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.32  31  31  30  30  30  31  29  29  28  28  28
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9
Eye lvl wnd gst.19  19  19  18  18  18  19  17  17  17  17  17
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.13  13  13  13  13  14  13  14  14  15  15  15
Surface wnd gst.32  31  31  30  30  30  31  29  29  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.24  23  26  31  28  26  29  29  30  29  28  28
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............32  31  36  42  37  36  39  39  40  39  37  37
Haines index....2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..68  65  71  88  71  68  79  84  78  68  57  57
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.0 6.0 25  25  25  25  25  25

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Dewpoint............22.
Min apparent temp...28.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 26
                    mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 26
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 32 mph decreasing to around 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (102300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................37 increasing to 60 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 75 to 81 through early afternoon
                    decreasing to 61 to 68 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 14 to 15.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   3   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  38  40  43  44  46  48  49  49  48  47  44
Dewpoint........24  24  23  23  23  22  22  21  21  21  20  21
RH..............59  57  50  45  43  38  35  33  33  34  34  39
Heat index (F)..28  30  33  36  37  40  43  44  44  43  42  39
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  13  14  14  13  13  12  12  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.26  26  24  25  25  24  24  23  22  20  20  17
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.16  16  14  15  15  14  14  14  13  12  12  10
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.14  14  13  14  14  13  13  12  12  12  10  9
Surface wnd gst.26  26  24  25  25  24  24  23  22  20  20  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.28  28  32  30  28  26  25  23  23  23  23  21
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
ADI.............37  60  81  80  79  77  75  68  65  61  15  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58  60  92  96  102 101 101 92  84  73  62  43
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD GD  GD  GD  GD  FR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
Forecaster...Dooley
Requested by...Brian Rushlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426121.0/BOX
.DELDT 11/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.c.rushlow@mass.gov