423
FNUS71 KBOX 080000
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Hawthorne Drive Fire...CT DEMHS
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
700 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday. Gusty west winds
are expected Friday, then a strong cold front will move through
by Friday evening followed by a period of gusty northwest winds
Friday night into Saturday.

Lowest relative humidities will range from 30 to 40 percent
Friday afternoon, and 30 to 35 percent Saturday afternoon, except
40 to 50 percent on the outer Cape and Nantucket.

.OUTLOOK...Sunday through Wednesday...

High pressure moves east of the region Sunday. Low pressure
tracking across the Great Lakes into Quebec/northern New England
will bring a period of showers sometime late Sunday into early
Monday. High pressure builds back into the region later Monday
into the middle of next week.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Max apparent temp...64.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming west 5 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to around 28 mph through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 28
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph increasing to 16 to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (97500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 10 increasing to 29 late in the morning,
                    then increasing to 55 increasing to 70 early
                    increasing to 82 decreasing to 70 early in the
                    afternoon increasing to 98 to 99 decreasing to
                    11 to 12 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming west up to 7 mph with
                    gusts to around 17 mph through early afternoon.

TIME (EST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   1   1   1   1   2   3   3   3   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............43  47  52  56  60  62  63  64  63  61  59
Dewpoint........37  37  37  38  37  35  34  35  35  35  35
RH..............82  68  56  51  42  36  34  34  35  38  40
Heat index (F)..40  45  52  56  60  62  63  64  63  61  59
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   5   7   8   10  10  12  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.12  14  17  21  23  24  25  26  28  28  28
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   3   4   5   6   6   7   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.7   8   10  13  14  14  15  16  17  17  17
Surface wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.3   5   7   8   10  10  12  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd gst.12  14  17  21  23  24  25  26  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 2.5 1.8
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.9   12  16  21  22  23  24  25  25  18  16
LVORI...........4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
ADI.............10  9   29  55  70  82  70  98  99  12  11
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4   8   20  40  57  73  92  96  98  40  26
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........58 percent.
Dewpoint............34 decreasing to 25.
Min apparent temp...33.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 26
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (91100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (18600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 to 18.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 7.0 early in the evening, then
                    increasing to 10 early decreasing to 8.0 late
                    in the evening decreasing to 6.0 increasing to
                    7.0 increasing to 8.0 increasing to 15
                    increasing to 25.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    early in the evening.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........11           32           9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............57           50           43
Dewpoint........36           33           29
RH..............45           52           57
Heat index (F)..57           46           37
20 FT wind......NW 10G29     NW 10G22     NW 10G21
Eye level wind..NW 6G17      NW 6G13      NW 6G13
Surface wind....NW 10G29     NW 10G22     NW 10G21
Mix hgt (ft)....1300         3100         3400
Transport wind..NW 16        NW 24        NW 25
LVORI...........2            2            2
ADI.............11           16           17
Haines index....2            2            2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19           66           76
Ventrate Cat....POOR         GOOD         GOOD
Ceiling (kft)...20           6.0          25

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............24.
Min apparent temp...33.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................12 increasing to 37 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 50 early increasing to 62 late in
                    the morning increasing to 73 decreasing to 53
                    to 55 early increasing to 60 to 68 decreasing
                    to 7 to 12 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 7 mph.

TIME (EST)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........2            3            3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............39           46           52
Dewpoint........25           25           23
RH..............57           43           32
Heat index (F)..33           41           52
20 FT wind......NW 9G17      N 10G22      NW 10G20
Eye level wind..NW 5G10      N 6G13       NW 6G12
Surface wind....NW 9G17      N 10G22      NW 10G20
Mix hgt (ft)....2000         4000         4000
Transport wind..N 17         N 20         N 18
LVORI...........2            1            1
ADI.............12           73           68
Haines index....4            4            3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30           68           63
Ventrate Cat....POOR         GOOD         GOOD
Ceiling (kft)...25           25           25

$$
Forecaster...Dooley
Requested by...Josh Cingranelli
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426084.0/BOX
.DELDT 11/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL josh.cingranelli@ct.gov