800
FXUS61 KBOX 061303
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
803 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wintry mix ending this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slippery travel still possible this morning before
  temperatures slowly rise above freezing, but black ice
  may be a concern tonight.

- Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and with risk for
  showers Sat night into early Sun.

- Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next
  week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which
  would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead
  to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A
  period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then
  turning cooler towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slippery travel still possible this morning before
temperatures slowly rise above freezing, but black ice may be a
concern tonight.

Winter Weather Advisories remain posted until noon.

Back edge of wintry mix was moving off coast and should be over
by 10 am. Weak low that passed offshore shifted winds to N and
caused temperatures to quickly drop below freezing roughly as
far south Hartford, Providence, and Taunton, and coincided with
morning commute. Travel conditions will improve slowly, but it
may take much of the morning north of the Mass Pike for temps to
rise above freezing.

Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual
moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could
produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and
with risk for showers Sat night into early Sun.

A mid-level ridge/surface high moves into the western Atlantic this
weekend directing milder S-SW flow into the region. While mid level
temperatures surge (850mb temps as high as 13C) poor mixing with an
inversion just off the deck will keep us from tapping into the truly
mild temps. Even so, compared to highs in the low to mid 30s on
Friday, Saturday will be warmer simply thanks to the winds at the
surface flipping from NE to S/SW. Expect a cloudy day with highs in
the mid 40s. A cold front then swings through Sunday, and out ahead
of that the combination of a 50-60 kts LLJ and a 1.25"+ PWAT plume
will lead to scattered light showers. The best consensus for timing
is overnight Saturday but still need to get some higher resolution
guidance to increase confidence, as some guidance wants to keep
shower chances around through the day on Sunday. The best chance
for this is southeast MA/coastal RI. For now sticking with
thinking that showers and clouds clear out later Sunday allowing
temps to further increase well into the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild
conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north
which  would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead
 to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A  period
of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then  turning cooler
towards the end of the week.

The warm advection pattern continues through at least Tuesday before
our next frontal system brings rain and colder temps mid week. We
continue to see signals for highs well into the 60s by Tuesday but,
as is fairly typical this time of year, a high pressure over eastern
Canada may send a back door cold front into SNE around late Tuesday.
This has the potential to spoil the warm temperatures early,
especially for northeast MA. It could be a situation where we have a
very large temperature gradient between northeast MA and southwest
CT. Either way, confidence is higher that a cold front moves through
with precipitation and a cooler airmass around Wednesday. Before
that, though, increased temps and dewpoints will lead to significant
loss of our snowpack, so will have to monitor for rises on rivers
and streams.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence.

IFR/LIFR conditions dominate today. The threat of accumulating
snow/sleet across north central and northeast MA will come to an
end by 13z/14z. Meanwhile...south of I-90 in the lower
elevation, ptype mainly will be rain but some sleet may be mixed
in at times.

All precipitation tapers to mainly spotty light rain/drizzle by mid-
late morning. However...IFR/LIFR conditions likely persist
along with areas of fog due to continued onshore flow. Any
spotty freezing drizzle will mainly be confined to the highest
terrain by late morning and afternoon. NE winds 5 to 15 knots
with some 20-25 knot gusts possible near the coast and up to 30
knots or so for parts of the outer-Cape and Nantucket.

Tonight...High confidence.

IFR-LIFR persist. Winds slacken, but remain NE. Areas of spotty
light rain/drizzle and fog persist at times. We may have to watch
for spotty freezing drizzle/black ice with temps flirting with 32
degrees.

KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF. The threat for
freezing rain/snow likely comes to an end by 14z but low
confidence how quickly temperatures rise above freezing so some
- FZDZ is possible until that happens.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Areas BR, chance DZ, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Areas
BR, chance FZDZ, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and tonight...High confidence.

Large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes coupled with low
pressure to the south of the waters will continue to generate NE
wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots and 4 to 8 foot seas today. Small craft
headlines posted for all open waters today. The gradient/NE winds
slacken tonight...but will need to continue small craft headlines
for all outer-waters given long NE fetch and lingering swell.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of drizzle, areas fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Patchy
fog.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ002>015-
     026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for RIZ001-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/BW/JWD
AVIATION...Frank/BW
MARINE...Frank/BW