843
FXUS61 KBOX 151514
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1014 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes, though temperatures have trended cooler for
next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with continued dry conditions.

- Some snow showers remain possible Sunday night into Monday
  morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts
  expected.

- An active, low-predictability pattern will bring milder
  temperatures with periodic rain/snow showers and breaks of dry
  weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today with continued dry conditions.

A weak cold front is expected to push southward across the region
early this morning resulting in cooler temperatures. 925mb
temperatures drop 2-4 degrees from yesterday yielding high
temperatures in the 30s. Despite a frontal passage, there won`t be a
strong pressure gradient to support gusty winds. Light N winds may
lighten further and transition NNE to E later in the afternoon. If
there is more of an onshore component, temperatures may end up
cooler on the eastern coast(low 30s) relative to more inland (mid
30s).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Some snow showers remain possible Sunday night into
Monday morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts
expected.

Model guidance continues to keep the coastal storm to our south
Sunday night into Monday. This has lowered the risk for higher
impact winter weather. However, a period of light snow showers
remains possible the south coast and portions of CT and west MA.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the tracking
of two separate waves. A southern stream wave tracks across the
southeast U.S. with a surface low developing and tracking off of the
coastal Carolinas into the outer mid-atlantic waters late Sun-Mon.
In a similar timeframe, a northern stream shortwave trough tracks
east across the Great Lakes toward southern New England. What has
remained consistent from previous model runs is that these features
don`t phase in a timely manner. As a result, the surface low is
suppressed and tracks well offshore. This has reduced the risk
of a impactful winter storm for southern New England. However,
this doesn`t mean all snow potential is gone. The waves will
help bring a plume of slightly above normal moisture with the
highest moisture just offshore combined with with broad ascent.
This would support light snow showers from the north wave,
mainly in western/central MA and a potential "graze" impact from
the offshore low with light snow for the south coast.

Any accumulations will be low, which is reflected well among
ensemble guidance. Could see a dusting to a few tenths around the
south coast and west interior MA/CT. 75th percentiles show around
0.5-1.0" possible for south coast and near Nantucket. However, it is
also worth noting that the 25th percentiles of ensemble guidance
also shows little to no accumulation, so this is a potential
scenario as well. Overall, this at most would result in very minor
impacts (if any) to areas Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Key Message 3...An active, low-predictability pattern will bring
milder temperatures with periodic rain/snow showers and breaks of
dry weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

No major changes are expected to the forecast from Tuesday through
Saturday. The overall synoptic pattern features a subtropical ridge
building over the Gulf and Central America, which displaces the
subtropical jet northward and results in generally zonal flow across
the southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern supports an active
regime with somewhat milder temperatures for southern New England.

Late Monday night into Tuesday, a weak northern-stream shortwave
traverses the Northeast. With modest PWATs in place, scattered light
snow showers are possible, mainly across interior portions of
southern New England, with only minor accumulations expected.

From Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, unsettled conditions
persist as multiple shortwave impulses eject from the Pacific and
track across the CONUS. As noted by the previous forecaster, this
pattern carries low-predictability regarding finer details such as
timing and precipitation type. As warmer air advects into the
region, thermal profiles will support a rain/snow mix at times, with
the greatest potential for snow confined to the higher terrain of
western and northern Massachusetts. It is worth emphasizing the
precipitation is not expected to be continuous from Wednesday
through Saturday, periods of dry weather are likely between system.
However, confidence remains low in pinpointing the exact timing of
these breaks at this range.

Temperature trend milder overall, though not the extent of feeling
spring-like. Expect a return to near-seasonable or slightly above-
normal temperatures, with daytime highs generally in the low to mid
40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR. North winds 5-10 kt, veering to NE by mid-afternoon.

Tonight: High confidence overall, though moderate for PVD, Cape
and Islands.

Mainly VFR ceilings. Winds easterly at 5-10 kts. Dry weather
for most terminals. Low chance for a snow shower mainly at PVD
and Cape/Islands. Few snow showers possible in far west
Massachusetts. Too low probability to include in TAF at this
time. Main window would be 05-12Z. Brief MVFR possible in any
showers.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR ceilings. Light NE/E winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. NW winds this morning turning N at 8-10 kts. Winds potentially
wavering toward NE/E late afternoon/early evening as winds
become light (and possibly VRB at times).

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Light winds N/NNE less than 10 kts today. Low chance for an
isolated snow shower after 03Z tonight. Not high enough
probability to include in TAF. Brief MVFR possible in showers.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHSN.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
slight chance FZRA.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SN likely, RA
likely.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN,
slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday... High Confidence.

A cold front moving over the waters early this morning brings a
period of slightly elevated NW winds over the northeastern waters.
Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible, but are not expected to be
widespread. Seas 2-3 ft are still expected with the outermost areas
of the northern waters seeing some pockets of 4 ft seas as that
front pushes through. Some light freezing spray is possible for the
northeastern waters as well.

High pressure takes control once more for the rest of the weekend,
keeping seas and winds calmer for Sunday. A deepening low pressure
system moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night into early
Monday morning, this will result in build seas for the southern
outer waters, possibly reaching 3-5 ft. This may result in marginal
small craft conditions Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of snow, slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch