325
FXUS61 KBOX 241117
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
717 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added Martha`s Vineyard to the Rip Current Statement today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of
  this week.

- Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions
  look to return heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier with more seasonable temperatures today
through much of this week.

Higher dewpoints with light winds and wet surfaces have aided in the
development of areas of fog this morning, particularly in areas that
tend to be more prone to it. This is expected to burn off shortly
after sunrise.

A cold front associated with low pressure centered over eastern
Ontario/western Quebec continues to track east over New England into
the morning hours today. In its wake, clearer skies and breezy
southwesterly winds prevail over southern New England. Occasional
gusts to around 20-25 MPH are possible in the afternoon.
Temperatures today return to more seasonable levels with highs back
in the upper 70s and low 80s. This general pattern will continue at
least into Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds in behind the
front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier
conditions look to return heading into the weekend.

High pressure looks to shift offshore heading into Thursday ahead of
a shortwave over the Great Lakes. Slightly more agreement amongst
the ensembles regarding the track of its associated low pressure has
come into the picture with the latest model runs, but uncertainty
still remains. Low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, which
guidance also resolves as extending up into Hudson Bay on the front
end of the upper level trough. This low pressure is slated to track
east through Canada, bringing showers down through New England.
Timing-wise, guidance continues to key in on late Thursday/early
Friday as the onset time for rain to return to southern New England,
lasting through Friday. NAEFS guidance has continued to show more
anomalous PWATs returning over the region within this timeframe as
well. This will very likely change to some degree in the coming days
as we approach this event.

Following rain towards the end of the work week, there are
indications that high pressure makes a return heading into Saturday,
drying out southern New England once more.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today and Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with SW winds of 7-13 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kts
possible in the afternoon/evening hours across the region,
though ACK may remain under an inversion that prevents the
development of gusts based on the latest forecast soundings. VFR
conditions continue tonight outside of any localized patches of
ground fog that develop in typically prone locations. Winds
become calm/light SW overnight.

Tuesday...High confidence.

Generally VFR, though lower end VFR to higher end MVFR possible
over the interior. W winds 6-13 kt with gusts near the Cape and
Islands nearing 20 kt possible.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds remain
possible through 12z this morning.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower
confidence in specific timing. Fog has not developed yet within
the valley, though could expect it to do so over the next few
hours and reach BDL before sunrise.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

Seas remain generally 2-4 ft through Tuesday. SW winds today
into tonight up to 12 kt may gust to around 20 kt towards the
afternoon hours. Winds then shift more to the W at 10-15 kt
heading into Tuesday morning, though winds over the near
northern waters may remain more S and below 10 kt through the
afternoon. Gusts over the southern waters Tuesday may reach
20 kt or so again in the afternoon.

Swell periods of 11-12 seconds are expected off the coasts of
Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket, which will lead to a higher
risk of rip currents along south-facing beaches there,
warranting expansion of the Rip Current Statement over the
Vineyard. A moderate risk for rip currents extends along SE MA
and RI beaches due to swells as well.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ023-
     024.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin