431
FXUS61 KBOX 040725
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
325 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Quiet weather with less humidity for Independence Day into the
weekend, but heat and humidity kick up for Sunday and the start of
next week. Rain returns Tuesday into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Dry, sunny, and less humid for Independence Day.

We`ll ring in the holiday weekend with a beautiful weather day for
outdoor activities. A drier post frontal airmass ahead of building
high pressure will bring seasonable high temperatures in the upper
70s and low 80s across the region. Winds will be light out of the
northwest. Overnight, lower dewpoints will allow temps to drop into
the upper 50s outside of Cape Cod and the islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Dry and sunny Saturday, a bit warmer.

Saturday mid level heights will be on the rise as 500 mb ridging
moves overhead with high pressure at the surface. This keeps in
place sunny skies with light winds, while weak WAA will allow high
temps to creep up a few degrees into the mid-upper 80s. Even so,
dewpoints remain in the 50s for most, so humidity remains
comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Dry Sunday and Monday.

* Heat and humidity increase Sunday into early next week.

* Chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday night into
  Tuesday.

The synoptic pattern features an east coast ridge on Sunday followed
by generally zonal flow to start the week, then a mid level trough
digs into the Midwest/Great Lakes Tue-Thu. SNE will be placed
downstream of the trough, pumping up the heat and humidity on warm,
moist SW flow through at least Monday. This brings the return of 90s
for high temperatures Sunday and Monday with dewpoints in the upper
60s and low 70s. A few shortwaves will round the base of the trough
and move over SNE through the week bringing the risk for showers and
thunderstorms, first around Tuesday then again toward Thursday.
Confidence in timing and coverage is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

SKC Fri Through Sat. Winds shift to NW tonight and could gust
to 20kt Fri before diminishing. SW winds 5-10 kts on Sat.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...High confidence.

Winds/seas stay below small craft advisory thresholds through
Saturday. Winds will generally be between 5 and 15 kts with wave
heights between 2-3 ft on Friday and between 1-2 ft on Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory
winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW