141
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
700 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended stretch of dry and early fall like weather will
prevail through much of next week as high pressure remains over
the Northeast. Our next chance for rain may not materialize
until Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Cool overnight with some patchy fog possible in the river valleys

Daytime clouds clear out tonight and high pressure continues to
build in over the region. Good radiational cooling is expected
tonight, leading to lows in the mid 40s and low 50s. Some patchy
fog could develop in the river valleys and in some spots along
the I-495 corridor tonight, but this will depend on how light
winds become over these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Mild with local sea breezes

High pressure continues to dominate through Sunday night.
Temperatures at 925 mb sit around 15C during the day, and with good
mixing highs can be expected to reach the mid to upper 70s. Model
soundings also show continued dry conditions during the day; dew
points will likely stay in the mid 40s to low 50s. Local
seabreezes through the afternoon will keep coastal areas cooler
than the rest of the region by a few degrees.

The story for Sunday night remains essentially the same as
tonight`s: good radiational cooling with the chance for some
patchy fog in the river valleys. Lows may be a few degrees
warmer in some spots with 925 mb temperatures around 15C,
ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and seasonable through Thursday
* Increasing risk of showers Thu night into Fri

Details:

Broad trough and weak upper low will prevail across the NE through
mid week, but high pres will dominate with below normal PWATs
providing dry weather. The dry weather may last into Thu, then by
the end of the week an upper trough will amplify across the Gt Lakes
with deep southerly flow bringing higher PWATs into New Eng. This
will lead to increasing rain chances sometime Thu night into Fri as
a surface wave lifts northward across the region. Another period of
showers is possible Fri night into early Sat but low confidence as
timing of shortwave energy rotating around the trough is uncertain.
However, ensemble consensus favors drying conditions during Sat.

Seasonable temps are expected for much of the upcoming week, with
mild to warm days in the 70s to near 80 and cool nights in the 50s.
NE flow will result in somewhat cooler temps near the coast Mon-Tue
before warming on Wed-Thu which will likely be the warmest days of
the week with highs upper 70s-lower 80s as winds turn southerly.
GEFS and EPS ensembles show highest probs of 80+ on Wed & Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Through Sunday Night...High Confidence.

VFR ceilings/visbys through Sunday night. Only exception is with
patchy fog at BAF, BED and perhaps BDL during the overnight to
pre-dawn hrs tonight into early Sunday morning.

Winds becoming light NW tonight. Light N-NE winds on Sunday,
seabreezes along the eastern coast around 14-15z, which become
light north Sunday evening.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Labor Day through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night...High confidence.

Winds and seas below SCA criterion through at least midweek. W
winds 5-10 kt today, which become N/NE at similar speeds Sun
into Sun night. Seas 3 ft or less all waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Labor Day through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Hrencecin
MARINE...KJC/Hrencecin