795
FXUS61 KBOX 121742
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
Issued by National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and blustery conditions continue with below normal
temperatures expected through the rest of this week and into
Saturday, with nothing more than a few brief passing rain/snow
showers. A frontal system will bring mainly rain Saturday night
into early Sunday, drying out Sunday afternoon. Blustery and
cool conditions will follow Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* A few flakes or sprinkles remain possible into this evening over
  the Berkshires.

* Milder temps but still below normal into the late afternoon and
  evening.

* Mainly dry and chilly tonight.

Tonight...

One shortwave moves to the east while another shortwave within
active northern stream jet approaches from the Gt Lakes. Weak
subsidence between these two shortwaves will lead to mainly dry
conditions although can`t rule out a few snow showers in the
Berkshires into tonight. Variable amounts of clouds expected with
modest W winds which will prevent good radiational cooling. Lows
will be mostly in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and cool Thursday

Thursday...

Mid level shortwave moving SE from the Gt Lakes will pass mostly
south of New Eng. It looks like a mostly dry day as PWATs are
decreasing, but shortwave will bring a pocket of colder temps aloft
in the afternoon with -32C at 500 mb. This will result in diurnal cu
increasing in coverage and can`t rule out a stray sprinkle or
flurry. Winds will pick up a bit with shortwave passage with NW
gusts to 25 mph. Not much change in thermal profile so expect highs
mid-upper 40s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and cool Fri and Sat

* A frontal system will bring a period of rain Sat night into early
  Sunday which may begin as some ice at the onset across northern MA

* Mainly dry and blustery early next week with continued below
  normal temps

Multiple shortwaves will be rotating south into New Eng maintaining
upper trough through the end of the week which will eventually slide
to the east on Sat with final shortwave passage. Other than a
passing flurry or light shower Fri it looks dry, then mostly sunny
day Sat as trough axis slides to the east. Temps will remain below
normal Fri and Sat.

Global guidance is indicating a fairly robust northern stream upper
trough/low diving SE across eastern Canada and into northern New Eng
Sat night into Sun. Progressive pattern with parent low approaching
from the Lakes and tracking to the north on Sun. Warm frontal
overrunning precip is expected Sat night with cold front passage
during Sun. The column is warming ahead of this system so mainly
rain is expected, but there could be some marginal low level cold
air to support brief icing at the onset Sat night across interior
northern MA. Rain may linger into Sun morning but trend will be for
drying conditions on Sun as cold front sweeps through. Timing of the
front is not certain which will determine when precip exits. Behind
the front, blustery conditions will develop into early next week
with below normal temps and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update...

Today...High confidence.

VFR cigs. SW wind 10-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt Cape/Islands.

Tonight...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR cigs with clouds scattering out overnight. West wind
5-10 kt, with gusts 15-20 kt at ACK.

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR. Increasing WNW winds with gusts to 20-25 kts developing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
RA likely.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories for all waters, soon dropping on the
Harbor at 3PM.

Gusts to 25-30 kt over the waters into the late afternoon and
evening. Winds back mainly W into tonight with speeds
decreasing below SCA over NE MA waters. Winds remain gusty over
southern waters tonight and continue into Thu as winds become
NW. Rough seas.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BR