193
FXUS61 KBOX 071156
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
756 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return Sunday
  afternoon into early evening, focused mainly across eastern
  New England. Cooler and drier conditions arrive Sunday night.

- Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday.

- Summerlike heat and humidity returns next week, no notable
  storms, though a front may bring a period of showers and
  thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms return
Sunday afternoon into early evening, focused mainly across eastern
New England. Cooler and drier conditions arrive Sunday night.

Subsidence behind the departing front allows for mainly clear skies
this morning, though this will be short-lived as a mid-level trough
and accompanying shortwave push south out of northern New England
this afternoon. While forcing aloft appears favorable, surface-based
instability remains limited, generally less than 500 J/kg. Continued
thinking supports mainly showery activity this afternoon rather than
a widespread washout. That said, some showers may be capable of
producing locally heavy downpours given PWAT values around 1.5
inches. While severe storms are not anticipated, thunder remains
possible and, due to colder temperatures aloft, small hail cannot be
ruled out. Although a few showers will be possible across the entire
region, areal coverage should be greatest across central and eastern
MA as well as RI, where instability appears slightly more favorable.
Cooler air arrives more gradually, which may allow highs to still
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s before northeast flow develops
later in the evening. Otherwise, drier and much cooler air works
into the region overnight. Lows by daybreak Monday will fall into
the middle to upper 40s across outlying locations and the lower to
middle 50s in the urban centers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday.

Sundays mid-level trough exits east of New England by early Monday
morning as an amplified ridge shifts toward the eastern third of the
CONUS. The trough eventually evolves into a cutoff mid-level low
over the Canadian Maritimes, helping to slow the eastward
progression of the ridge and supporting another stretch of
summerlike temperatures across southern New England. Monday will
likely be the coolest day of next week due to north-northeast flow
aloft draining a cooler airmass southward into the region. Forecast
soundings Monday afternoon depict a well-mixed atmosphere with the
boundary layer extending to around 850 mb and temperatures at that
level ranging from +7C to +10C. Naturally, the farther east, the
cooler temperatures will be, with Cape Cod, the Islands, Boston, and
the eastern coastal plain largely remaining in the 70s, while the
Connecticut River Valley reaches the lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Summerlike heat and humidity returns next week, no
notable storms, though a front may bring a period of showers and
thunderstorms mid to late week.

Through much of next week, an anomalous ridge extending north toward
Hudson Bay in Canada favors mainly dry and increasingly hot
conditions. 850 mb temperatures rise to around +15C Tuesday, then
increase to around +18C Wednesday through Friday. This should
support highs in the middle 80s to near 90 Tuesday, followed by
upper 80s to lower 90s through much of the remainder of the week.
The first half of next week should feature relatively comfortable
dewpoints in the 50s. However, by late week, dewpoints rise into the
60s, leading to a more humid airmass. While outside the forecast
period, there is a signal for heat to continue into next weekend,
reflected in CPC outlooks depicting a Slight Risk (20 to 40 percent
probability) for extreme heat across portions of the Northeast.
There is still time to assess this signal in forthcoming guidance,
though heat headlines may eventually be needed for portions of the
period. In terms of precipitation, there does not appear to be
anything appreciable on the horizon through much of next week.
However, a frontal passage later in the week may bring a period of
showers and thunderstorms as heat and humidity continue to build.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update:

Today...Moderate confidence in the areal extent of shower
activity and period of MVFR.

VFR. Showers develop after 16Z across northeastern MA,
expanding across eastern MA and RI after 18Z through the early
evening hours. While the risk remains low, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible as well. Breezy WSW/W winds gusting
to 20 to 25 kt today shifting WNW this afternoon. Winds shift
more NW with the arrival of showers.

Tonight...High confidence.

Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR as shower activity comes to an
end, though conditions should return to VFR by 03Z at BOS and by
08Z at FMH/HYA/ACK. Showers end across eastern MA and RI
between 03-05Z. Winds shift more N behind exited showers. Winds
shift more NNE for BOS and Cape/Island terminals with a period
of gusts around 20 kts. Winds/gusts decrease after 03Z.

Monday...High confidence.

VFR. NE winds around 10 to 15 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.

A few showers or a weak thunderstorm are possible Sunday between 18Z
and 00Z, with showers ending between 00-02Z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...High confidence.

Marginal 5 ft seas will continue across portions of the southern
waters into Sunday, while the remainder of the waters remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, a surge of northerly Small
Craft Advisory-level wind gusts is expected Sunday night behind the
departing cold front, especially across the eastern waters, which
may briefly increase seas as well.

Additional Small Craft headlines may eventually be needed once
current advisories expire. Seas gradually subside and NE winds fall
below advisory criteria Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley