893
FXUS61 KBOX 171104
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
604 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday with
decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
settles in. A cold front will bring a period of unsettled
weather Friday which may linger into Saturday, then high
pressure returns next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and chilly today with mainly dry conditions

Mid level shortwave resulting in a few flurries and snow showers
rotating through SNE early this morning. The shortwave moves
offshore before daybreak which will bring an end to this precip.

Upper low lifts northward through the Maritimes today with trough
and cyclonic flow remaining over New Eng. With low-mid level
moisture in place we will see a mix of sun and clouds with diurnal
cu. However, expecting mainly dry weather today as forcing is
minimal. Gusty winds will continue today as strong pressure gradient
persists. Soundings show a well mixed boundary layer with potential
for 25-40 mph gusts. Chilly airmass across SNE with 850 mb temps
dropping to -10C by 12z with only minor recovery today. 925 mb temps
peak around -2C. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Wind chills will be down in the teens and 20s to start the morning
recovering to the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Clearing and cold tonight
* Mostly sunny and still a bit blustery Tue with below normal temps

Upper low continues to move northward across eastern Canada tonight
and Tue and slowly loses its grip on New Eng. Another shortwave
passes to the north and east tonight and should not impact SNE.
Expect clearing skies tonight but pressure gradient will keep winds
a bit gusty into Tue with gusts to 25 mph before diminishing Tue
afternoon as the gradient slackens. The column is quite dry Tue so
expect lots of sunshine. Wind will limit radiational cooling tonight
with lows generally in the mid-upper 20s, except lower 30s near the
coast. Slight moderation in low level temps Tue so highs in the low-
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry with less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal

* Increasing risk of showers Fri with milder temps

* Showers may linger into Sat but confidence is low, then drying
  out Sunday. Temps trending cooler next weekend

Upper level flow deamplifies Wed into Thu as a quasi-zonal flow
develops. High pres builds into the region which will bring dry
weather and less wind Wed and Thu, but below normal temps will
continue. Coastal wave moving off the mid Atlc coast expected to
remain far enough south to keep rainfall south of New Eng but
northern extent of precip could get close to the Islands Wed with
more clouds near the south coast. Then we have a low amplitude
shortwave passage on Thu but global and ensemble guidance is dry
with just an increase in cloud cover.

Pattern becomes more complex for the end of the week and next
weekend. A robust northern stream shortwave tracks to the north Fri
with a cold front passage which should bring increasing risk of
showers and milder temps preceding the front on Fri. There is
uncertainty with how far south the front gets on Sat as a wave moves
along the boundary, and where the front sets up will determine if
unsettled condition linger into Sat. Precip may end up south of New
Eng but confidence is low. Then it appears high pres will settle in
for Sunday bringing dry conditions. Temps expected to trend cooler
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update...

Today through Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR through the period, but areas of MVFR cigs in the
Berkshires today. W-NW gusts 25-35 kt diminishing overnight. W
gusts 20-25 kt Tue.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings continue into tonight for the outer waters.

Gusty W-NW winds will continue today with gusts to 35-40 kt on the
open waters. Winds diminish a bit tonight and should gradually fall
below gale force, with 25-30 kt gusts lingering into Tue. Seas
slowly subside late today through Tue but will remain rough.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC