996
FXUS61 KBOX 232323
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
723 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for dangerous rip currents will remain elevated
through Sunday in the wake of Erin. Cooler and dry through the
weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Monday ahead of
a cold front. Then trending drier and cooler, with temperatures
falling below the climatological normal Tuesday through the
week, as an area of high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* High Surf Advisory expires this evening. Dangerous Rip
  currents remain through the weekend.

High surf comes to an end this evening, but dangerous rip
currents remain a significant threat for beachgoers through the
weekend.

Other than rough waters, today remains dry and breezy.
Afternoon highs in the low 80s across southern New England, with
overnight temperatures dropping to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Another mostly quiet day ahead of the next chance for
  showers/storms

Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Also expecting another day of
breezy southerly winds, with gusts in the afternoon up to 25
mph at times. Most of southern New England should remain dry
through Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west,
but there is a small change for a spot shower or two Sunday
evening across portions of the far northwestern interior.

Dangerous rip currents should slowly decrease starting Sunday
evening as waves begin to calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warm, muggy, with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
  on Monday, otherwise a dry week ahead as high pressure builds
  in and brings slightly below normal temperatures.

We are heading into the last full week of August, hard to
believe how quickly the warmer months are zipping by. Will kick
off the week with seasonably warm and humid conditions on Monday
with showers and rumbles of thunder. Drying and cooling
conditions follows on Tuesday with a mostly dry stretch of days
ahead. Will need to keep an eye out on Thursday to Friday time
frame as a mid-level shortwave moves down from the northwest,
PWATs are arguably minimal so not expecting anything more than a
spot shower at best. Otherwise, will have an area of high
pressure in control through the week and into next weekend.

A weak area of low pressure passes through the coastal waters
early Monday morning, increasing the chances for rain mainly for
eastern coastal Massachusetts. In addition, a cold front slowly
moves across southern New England late in the afternoon to
early evening, given the time of day, storm development may be
limited due to the earlier sunset/ending of day time heating.
That said, there are ingredients there for thunderstorms, though
the coverage would more than likely be isolated. No concerns
with excessive rainfall either as PWATs are less than 1.5" which
is near normal for late August.

A noticeable chance to the airmass on Tuesday, which will
remain with us through the week. Guidance remains consistent
with temperatures aloft at 850mb drop between +8C and +12C, this
will yield day time highs in the lower to middle 70s and
nightly lows in the 50s. These temperatures are slightly below
the normal for late August, in which highs range from the upper
70s to lower 80, and lows in the low to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z Update...

Through Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Winds from the S/SW up to 10 kts with gusts close to 20
kts. Winds start to decrease to near 5 kts 23-02z tonight.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. Light S/SW winds in the morning increasing to around 10
kts, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts, in the afternoon.

Sunday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. S/SE winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for southern coastal
areas, including the Cape and Islands. Waves will continue to
decrease down to 5-7 ft by the evening hours. Rip currents will
stay a significant concern with the elevated surf through at
least Sunday. High Surf Advisories continue through this
evening.

Small Craft Advisories in effect for the lingering high seas
will gradually end this weekend, taking longest across the outer
coastal waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-
     019>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...Dooley/McMinn