163
FXUS61 KBOX 291852
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
152 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold weather continues Saturday night, along with a
diminishing wind. A warm front brings a period of rain and wind late
Sunday morning into the afternoon/evening, with rain moderate to
heavy at times, along with milder temperatures. A cold front ushers
in a return to drier and colder conditions Monday. Low pressure
tracking south of New England likely brings the seasons first
accumulating snow to interior portions of CT and MA. However,
details regarding the rain/snow line and specific accumulations are
still uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Another cold night with lows in the 20s

1030+ MB ridge west of New England continues to advect eastward this
afternoon, resulting in diminishing winds. This combined with a
mostly clear conditions and a dry airmass, with dew pts in the
teens, will support ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight.
Thus, we followed the colder MOS guidance for lows tonight, mainly
in the 20s regionwide. As WAA aloft commences later tonight,
increasing high clouds combined with surface winds becoming SE, will
likely result in temps leveling off late. Hence, coldest temps occur
late this evening to just after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Rain late Sunday morning into afternoon & evening

* Milder, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in SE MA

* Becoming breezy with south winds 15-25 mph

Chilly, but a dry start to the day Sunday. However, rain overspreads
the region from late morning into the early afternoon, as a warm
front approaches the area. Model soundings suggest the column may be
cold enough for the precip possibly to begin as a brief period of
snow across western/central CT/MA between 10 AM and 1 PM. This will
be short lived, as the boundary layer rapidly warms, with any snow
quickly changing to rain. Otherwise, strong thermal and moisture
advection results in a period of rain, briefly moderate to heavy at
times. Good model agreement on QPF totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.50,
with steadiest and heaviest rain from approximately 4P-10P, west to
east. A chilly rain for the interior, but in the coastal plain
(including the I-95 corridor), dew pts rise through the 40s to near
50, as the warm sector advects northeast. This will yield a
noticeably milder day, with highs in the 40s regionwide and low 50s
possible over southeast MA.

Becoming breezy Sunday afternoon & evening, especially in the
coastal plain, as warm sector overspreads the region. Model
soundings support south winds 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph
across southeast MA possible, including Cape Cod and the Islands.
Less wind across the interior valleys, as it takes longer to scour
out/erode today/tonight cold air.

The system remains progressive, with FROPA occurring later Sunday
night and dry weather overspreading SNE, along with increasing CAA
toward Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key Messages

* Dry with seasonable temperatures to start the work week on Monday

* A coastal low-pressure system will bring substantial precipitation
  to southern New England Tuesday evening, with the potential for a
  plowable/shovelable snow for interior southern New England

* Cold and dry Wednesday-Saturday with next chance for precip Friday
  night

Monday and Monday night

Low-level northwest flow behind an exiting cold front will support
cold/dry weather in southern New England on Monday with modest
northwest winds. High pressure builds over the region Monday
afternoon supporting sunny skies. Temperatures will be below
normal on Monday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. For
reference, the normal high temperature in Boston for December
1st is 52 degrees.

Monday night is expected to feature efficient radiational cooling
with light winds and clear skies for at least the first half of the
night. Later in the evening winds are forecast to shift south
as high pressure builds east of the region. This will result in
increasing cloudiness into Tuesday morning as warmer air from
the south overruns the cooler air already in place. Nonetheless,
we should radiate enough to experience chilly temperatures
Tuesday morning with lows in the teens and 20s for much of
southern New England. The coastal areas, especially The
Cape/Islands should be more mild with temps in the upper 20s/low
30s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

The highlight of the extended forecast is the forecast for Tuesday.
An area of low-pressure is expected to develop near The Gulf Coast
and move up the eastern seaboard Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Confidence is moderate to high that this system will bring
substantial precipitation to southern New England between Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. NBM probabilities for greater than 0.25
inches of liquid precipitation are currently ranging from 75-90
percent. There is far less confidence however, with respect to
potential snowfall for southern New England. A few scenarios
are in play, but latest ensemble guidance has given the best
chance for a plowable/shovelable (3-4 inches) of snowfall across
interior MA and the high terrain.

Snowfall potential will be laregly governed by the storm track,
which remains uncertain at this time. Until we can get a clearer
picture/higher confidence in the storm track we can only lean on
probabilstic forecasts to gauge who can expect what. Probablities
for greater than 4 inches of snowfall are currently ranging from 30
to 60 percent for areas in Massachusetts north and west of I-495.
Elsewhere, probabilities for 4+ inches of snow are 30 percent or
less with near zero probabilities for southeast MA, the southern
half of RI, Cape Cod, and The Islands. That`s not to say no
measureable snow is possible, but the highest chances for a
plowable snow residea cross the interior.

Wednesday through Saturday

Low-presure exits east over The Atlantic Wednesday morning. This
will be followed by a cold/dry air mass settling over The Northeast
for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be well below
normal through next Friday with daily high/low temps in the upper
30s/low 40s and the teens/20s respectively. Thurdsay night/Friday
morning looks particularly frigid with low temperatures
currently forecast in the low to mid teens. NBM probabilties for
MinT<10 degrees are between 20 and 40 percent for Thursday
night. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Friday
night/Saturday when a wave of low- pressure may pass north and
west of southern New England. Stay tuned for further details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW winds diminish.

Sunday...High confidence on trends, somewhat uncertain on exact
timing.

VFR to start the day, but rain and MVFR conditions quickly
overspread CT/MA/RI between 15z-18z from west to east. Then a period
of IFR/LIFR possible 20z-02z from west to east, in moderate to heavy
rain, low cigs and areas of fog. Light SE winds in the morning,
become S 15-25 KT afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 30 kt
along the south coast. This should minimize LLWS, however the core
of the low level jet may yield marginal LLWS 21z Sun to 03z Mon over
southeast MA, WS020/18045KT.

Sunday night...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing.

MVFR/IFR at 00z, but quickly improving to VFR with FROPA and the
wind shift to the west 15-25 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF through Sunday morning.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF through 12z Sunday, then some
uncertainty on exact timing details.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA, patchy BR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA,
chance SN.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

130 PM update...

Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence.

Gusty WNW winds diminish Saturday evening and overnight. Dry weather
and good vsby prevail into Sunday morning. Then a warm front results
in a period of rain from late Sunday morning into Sunday evening,
with rain and fog limiting vsby to 1-3 miles at times. Light SE
winds Sunday morning, become south in the afternoon and evening,
increasing with gusts up to 30 kt. Then a cold front sweeps across
the RI/MA waters later Sunday night, ushering in dry weather and a
wind shift to the west, with speeds 15-25 kt.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, patchy fog.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/Nocera
MARINE...RM/Nocera