


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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833 FXUS61 KBOX 031917 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 317 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures and tolerable levels of humidity is anticipated for most of the upcoming workweek, to go along with coastal seabreezes. Our next chance for rain may not materialize until next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Hazy skies through the afternoon * Temperatures tonight similar to last night with clear skies again Hazy skies due to Canadian wildfire smoke will continue over much of southern New England for the rest of the day today, along with mostly clear skies. Some areas have seen slight visibility reductions due to this smoke, but these are not expected to get worse. Other than that, not much change from our previous forecasts for tonight. Sea breezes will continue until around sunset tonight. Lows tonight expected to be in the mid to upper 50s for the region, with urban areas and spots on the outer Cape in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Haze from Canadian wildfire smoke * Dry with continued seasonable temperatures and slightly cooler temperatures on the immediate coasts from local sea breezes Continued dry conditions as high pressure over the region continues to dominate the pattern. Seasonable high temperatures with sea breezes cooling the coasts will be the norm through this period (and past it). Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to move into southern New England, which may have some concentrations near the ground. Seasonable overnight conditions expected again Monday night. Some guidance indicates slightly higher relative humidity values aloft overnight, which lines up with expected increasing cloud cover heading into Tuesday morning. No rain expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Other than low (<20%) chances at showers or t-storms Tue-Thu in/around the Berkshires, an extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures remains in the offing for the first week of August. * Highs mid 80s with lows mid 50s to low 60s, to go along with cooler seabreezes each day. * Uncertainty increases for late in the weekend / early next week due to possible subtropical development off the Carolina coast. Details: Overall no substantial changes noted in today`s guidance versus yesterday`s in terms of the forecast for much of the upcoming workweek into the early weekend. We still anticipate an extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels for most of the upcoming workweek, driven by established high pressure near Nova Scotia vicinity. We did opt to add a slight- chance mention of diurnally-driven showers/t-storms in the terrain areas in western/northwest MA Tue thru Thu, but won`t be raining the whole time in these locations. Other than that though, it`s a dry forecast through at least Sat with highs in the mid 80s and lows mid 50s to lower to mid 60s. Dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s to boot too, so humidity levels should be tolerable. Uncertainty then increases into Sunday and early next week, as the ridge in place weakens. Further southward off the Carolina coast, the NHC is monitoring a couple areas of disturbed weather. One area designated on NHC`s Tropical Weather Outlook as having a strong likelihood of development (up to 70%) is expected to pass well to our southeast later this week, as it will be suppressed by the strong Nova Scotia high pressure. Another area of disturbed weather with lower chance at development (up to 20%) is north of the Bahamas and southeast of the Carolina coast. This feature is forecast to drift northwestward towards the Carolina coast and then may recurve NE late in the weekend or early next week. There are some GFS and GEM-based model solutions which bring this system close enough to our southeast in which some effects could be possible, but without a well-defined circulation center, tough to have much confidence in any potential outcome at this time. We`ll continue to monitor this area closely through the workweek but as of now, it`s way too early to pinpoint impacts, if there were to be any at all. For the latest on the tropics, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the NHC. If nothing else, it serves as a reminder that we are in the midst of tropical cyclone season. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds for many terminals, with some more consistently S/SW or light N/NE. Local sea breezes continuing until around 00z tonight, then light winds shift more consistently S/SW across all terminals. Hazy skies from Canadian wildfires, but not expected to impact surface visibility. Some visibility reductions from radiational fog are possible overnight in SE MA and parts of the south coast into eastern CT. Monday...High confidence. VFR. Light N to NW winds Monday morning, before sea breezes develop once again. Haze from wildfire smoke, potentially close to the surface. Minor visibility impacts possible. Monday Night...High confidence. VFR. S winds shift more N overnight but remain light. Increased cloud cover heading into the morning hours, but ceilings should remain firmly VFR. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Thursday Night: VFR. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High confidence. High pressure continues to build over the waters through Monday. A period of relatively light winds and seas with good visibility continues. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin NEAR TERM...Hrencecin SHORT TERM...Hrencecin LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin