830
FXUS61 KBOX 040058
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
858 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After lingering showers end tonight, quiet weather will follow
for Independence Day into the weekend, but heat and humidity
kick up for Sunday and the start of next week. Unsettled weather
may make a return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...

* Severe weather threat has ended - Watch canceled.

Storms have moved offshore and have weakened so the Watch has
been canceled for the rest of SNE. Quite an impressive event
with numerous reports of wind damage, especially from Providence
to New Bedford, as well as hail as large as golf balls in
Sterling, CT.

Back edge of stratiform precip will move offshore before
midnight, then clearing works into region later tonight behind
cold front with much drier airmass in place by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry & sunny for Independence Day.

Once the colder airmass moves into place overnight, we`ll start
to see some drying and more pleasant weather. Friday should be
quite sunny, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s under a
high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry and sunny through the weekend.

* Heat and humidity increase Sunday into early next week.

* Unsettled weather returns around late Mon/Tue but low
  confidence in timing/location details.

The mid level trough finally exits east on Saturday with
ridging building in followed by a weak shortwave early next
week. This will pump up the heat and humidity, really starting
on Sunday when the 90s return and continuing until at least
Monday. Beyond that there is some uncertainty owing to the
timing of a frontal system which may bring down temperatures
while also introducing a chance for showers and thunderstorms as
early at late Monday. For now, best chance of unsettled weather
looks centered on Tuesday, which would bring down temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...High confidence.

Areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms, primarily in RI and
SE MA this evening. Clearing tonight with SKC Fri and Fri night.
Winds shift to NW tonight and could gust to 20kt Fri before
diminishing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. TS expected to remain
south of airport this evening.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Independence Day...High confidence.

Winds/seas stay below small craft advisory thresholds through
Friday. Winds will generally be in SW direction on the order of
7-15 knots before switching too a more NW direction tonight
behind the cold front.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory
winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McMinn
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...McMinn/FT/JWD
MARINE...McMinn