892
FXUS61 KBOX 231524
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1024 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues today with temperatures finally moderating
to normal levels for this time of year. Above normal
temperatures are anticipated for early to mid week and some
locations may reach into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
spot showers are possible around Tuesday, then it gradually
turns cooler and more unsettled toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...

* Clouds give way to sunshine today

Mid and high level clouds were showing signs of dissipating into
this afternoon. More sunshine and a higher starting point that
what we had yesterday, should result in high temperatures
approaching 40 degrees today, and in some cases even the lower
40s towards northern CT, RI and southeast MA. Main changes this
morning were to bring the forecast back in line with observed
trends. Otherwise, main theme remained on track.

Previous Discussion...

A ridge of high pressure to our south will result in pleasant
end to this weekend. A moisture-starved shortwave crossing the
region this morning will result in a period of mid level
cloudiness, but expect increasing sunshine later this morning
and especially this afternoon. Westerly flow combined with the
increasing late February sun angle should allow high temps to
overachieve the guidance a bit. 925T around -4C should allow
afternoon highs to reach between 40 and 45 in most locations.
Westerly winds may gust around 20 mph at times, but overall a
very pleasant afternoon is on tap for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Tranquil tonight with a period of clouds...Lows in the teens/20s
* Partly sunny Mon...Highs middle-upper 40s away from the south coast

Details...

Tonight...

There is another moisture starved shortwave crossing the region
tonight...but surface high pressure will result in continued
dry/tranquil weather. We just expect this shortwave to result in
a period of mid-level cloudiness. Lows will range from the
middle to upper teens in the normally coldest outlying locations
to the 20s elsewhere.

Monday...

High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Mon. This will
allow a southerly flow of continued milder air into southern New
England. 925T moderate to -1C/-2C....so under partly sunshine
expect afternoon highs to overachieve a bit into the middle to
upper 40s. Southerly winds will result in temps being a few
degrees cooler along the very immediate south coast given the
marine influence.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A couple of nuisance systems early next week, better chance
  for a more active pattern by late next week.

* Warming trend through the middle part of the upcoming week,
  then falling temperatures into next weekend.

As discussed previous few nights, next week features mainly
quiet conditions with warming temperatures, dare say it may
feel a bit like early spring? At least through midweek, there
after a trend to cooler temperatures by late week and next
weekend. Until then, there is near zonal flow in the mid-levels,
allowing modified Pacific air to cross the CONUS, leading to
the warmer temperatures. Two pieces of shortwave energy cross
New England Tuesday, with better PWATs and forcing over northern
New England, should be limited to hit or miss showers across
southern New England. Approaching the end of the week,
Thursday/Friday, ridging builds across the western CONUS and
troughing in the eastern CONUS, thus leading to more unsettled
pattern to end the workweek and potentially into next weekend.

Lacking moisture and strong lift, the shortwaves that push
through New England Tuesday are likely to only have nuisance
affects, mainly spot showers. Opt`d to leave low `Chance` POPs
during this period, these showers would be in the form of rain
as temperatures turn mild this week, more on that in a second.
Late this week there is a shift in the mid-level pattern,
leading to a more activity. Period of weather between Thursday
and Friday is unsettled with a deepening trough, surface low
development, and frontal passage. Still a good deal of
uncertainty with the track of the low pressure system, GEM/GFS
have it displaced to the north, tracking across the St. Lawrence
River Valley and the ECMWF further south over southern New
England. Timing is somewhat in better agreement with a trend
towards Thursday and exiting early Friday. Given this is nearly
a week away there are many unknowns; coastal low or inland
runner, cold enough for all snow or wintry mix, and the exact
timing. The unsettled pattern looks to continue into next
weekend, along with colder temperatures, likely leading to mixed
PTypes, although confidence in exact details is low at this
time. Did lean heavily on the NBM which gave widespread `Chance`
POPs Thursday afternoon through midday Friday. Then widespread
`Slight Chance` into Saturday/Saturday night.

As advertised, a mild stretch continues Tuesday and Wednesday,
still have uncertainty with Thursday due to the timing of the
next system. An earlier arrival would shunt potential highs
while a late arrival may allow for another spring-ish day. Enjoy
it, temperatures trend cooler Friday and into next weekend.
Tuesday and Wednesday are the warmest days with daytime highs in
the mid-40s to low-50s. Now, there is a chance we could have
overperforming temperatures on Wednesday afternoon due to clear
skies/plenty of sunshine and deep mixing of the boundary layer.
If this were to occur, could easily reach the mid-50s across
Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, that would be an added
BONUS! As mentioned, Thursday is a bit of a toss, if the next
system is slower to come through, could have a 4th mild day
across the region, before the cooling trend returns Friday into
this weekend. Nightly lows this coming week are "mild" in the
upper 20s and middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

VFR. W winds 7-12 knots with some 15 to 20 knot wind gusts into
this afternoon.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light/calm W winds.

Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. S wind 7-12 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...High Confidence.

High pressure to our south today and tonight will move off the
Mid Atlantic coast Mon. The high pressure system will remain
close enough to result in a weak enough pressure gradient to
keep winds/seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria into Mon.
We do expect some westerly 20+ knot wind gusts today. Also,
expect southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots by late Monday
afternoon/early evening as high pressure exits the mid- Atlantic
coast.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Dooley