658
FXUS61 KBOX 140744
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
244 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cool today then high pressure builds into the region
later tonight into Saturday with less wind. A frontal system will
bring mainly rain Saturday night, then drying out and becoming windy
Sunday. Blustery and cool weather prevails early next week, then
diminishing wind and continued dry weather into midweek as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and cool conditions today

Weak subsidence today across SNE then the last in a series of
shortwaves will be dropping south into northern NY/VT later today.
Plenty of sunshine expected this morning, then diurnal cu will
develop this afternoon as cold pool aloft acts on residual moisture
in the column. Dry weather today, but as shortwave approaches from
the north could see a few rain/snow showers develop across NW MA
late in the day. Low level temps cool today so it will be a few
degrees cooler than Thu with highs mostly in the mid 40s, but closer
to 40 over the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Decent pressure
gradient over New Eng will lead to NW winds occasionally gusting to
20-25 mph which will add to the chill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Clearing and cold tonight with diminishing wind
* Sunshine followed by increasing clouds Sat

Tonight...

The last piece of shortwave energy moves through SNE this evening.
Moisture is lacking so expect a mainly dry shortwave passage
although can`t rule out a passing flurry early this evening. Then
clearing after shortwave moves offshore, and winds diminish as high
pres builds in from the west. Decent radiational cooling will
develop allowing low temps to drop into the low-mid 20s away from
immediate coast and urban centers.

Saturday...

High pres slides south of New Eng then moves offshore during the
afternoon. Morning sunshine will give way to increasing afternoon
clouds as warm advection develops with de-amplifying ridge aloft
allowing mid-high clouds to move into the region. Rain will be
approaching from the west later in the day ahead of the warm front,
but much of the rain should hold off until after dark. Highs will be
mostly in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Rain overspreads the region Saturday night, with low risk of
  freezing rain at the onset in far northern MA

* Rain ends by Sun morning, then becoming windy with seasonable
  temps

* Blustery and chilly Mon with mainly dry weather pattern into Thu
  with below normal temps through the period

Saturday night and Sunday...

Potent northern stream approaches from the Gt Lakes Sat night with a
warm front moving into SNE from the SW. Decent moisture advection
with PWATs increasing to around 1 inch combined with modest forcing
for ascent ahead of the warm front and within left exit region of
upper jet will support a period of widespread rain moving across SNE
Sat night. Rain will quickly develop in the evening from west to
east. Temps over higher terrain north of Route 2 will be near
freezing as rain moves in so can`t rule out a few pockets of
freezing rain at the onset. But duration and areal coverage of any
icing will be limited as temps expected to rise through the night so
not expecting much if any impacts. System is rather progressive as
dry slot is moving in from the west late Sat night so rain is
expected to taper off toward daybreak Sunday.

The cold front will be moving through early Sunday and should be
offshore by mid morning followed by much drier moving in from the
west. Not expecting much rainfall Sunday and skies should eventually
become partly sunny. Potent shortwave rotates through the region in
the afternoon but PWATs are falling rapidly so don`t expect much
more than a few spot showers. Wind will become a factor behind the
front as strong cold advection develops with a deepening boundary
layer. W wind gusts to 30-40 mph expected to develop by late morning
and there is some risk for even higher gusts. Temps will rise into
the 50s Sun morning in the coastal plain before cooling in the
afternoon, with temps falling into the 30s across interior MA.

Monday through Thursday...

Pattern features upper low moving into the Maritimes early next week
as series of shortwaves rotate through New England. Moisture is
limited so mainly dry conditions expected with just a low risk of a
few spot rain/snow showers. Global guidance is showing an
approaching shortwave with a wave moving off mid Atlc coast Tue
night, but dominant northern stream across New Eng should keep
moisture south of New Eng and this is supported by global ensembles.
Then pattern de-amplifies for the middle and end of the week. Below
normal temps expected through the period. Coldest day will be Monday
which will also feature gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z Update...

Today through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. Sct-bkn diurnal strato-cu 5-7k ft
developing this afternoon, then clearing tonight but ocean
effect clouds lingering over the outer Cape. Gradually lowering
cigs (mid-high clouds) Sat afternoon. NW wind gusts to 20 kt
today, NW 5-10 kt tonight becoming W-SW 5-10 kt Sat afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
RA, chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...

Marginal SCA winds over southern waters into this morning will
diminish this afternoon, with winds and seas below SCA
thresholds tonight and Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231-
     250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC