335
FXUS61 KBOX 291109
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
609 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues today. Gusty winds persist early this morning
and into much of Saturday, although not as strong as yesterday. Low
pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night
bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for Monday as
a cold front passes through. Monitoring a storm Tuesday into
Wednesday which could bring wintry weather to portions of Southern
New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Temps in the 30s and low 40s.

* Breezy

* Colder tonight with lows in the mid 20s.

Lake effect snow showers come to an end for southern New England
today leaving a cold and breezy start to the weekend. This, as high
pressure builds in from the south further decreasing the pressure
gradient and continuing the cold NW flow. While blustery, winds
won`t reach the speeds we saw yesterday as we only mix down gusts on
the order of 20-30 mph. Strongest winds will be the first half of
the day, coming down by late afternoon as the high shifts overhead
and loss of daytime heating causes the boundary layer to decouple.

Mid/high clouds move in from the west between 6 and 9 pm allowing
for several hours of potential radiational cooling before warmer air
begins to move in on southerly winds toward Sunday morning. Low
temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night.

* Much warmer, in the 40s and low 50s for highs.

Clouds continue to increase as a warm front lifts north early Sunday
morning. This will bring temperatures back above normal with highs
reaching the upper 40s and low 50s (warmest on the south coast). The
warm front is associated with a shortwave trough and surface low
moving from the Great Lakes through northern New England. While in
the warm sector we`ll see widespread stratiform rain showers
overspread in the afternoon and evening. The system is progressive,
and by the time the cold front swings through Sunday night and shuts
off precipitation most locations could see around a quarter inch of
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

*  A wintry event remains possible Tue into early on Wed. Confidence
   remains low on the details. Greatest chance for snowfall
   accumulations with possible impacts remains across interior
   Southern New England.

* Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures
  favored.

Latest guidance suite remained rather consistent with the overall
forecast theme for this time period. Still monitoring the potential
for some snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by colder and
drier conditions late next week.

That said, like most early season winter storms, timing is
everything. We are still at the time of year where snowfall is more
likely at night than during the day. This is largely due to
temperatures. These are just the details that are just not known
with enough certainty to get specific on potential snowfall
accumulations. The latest NationalBlend had a 6-7 inch spread in
snowfall accumulations between the 25th and 75th percentile, which is
a sign of this uncertainty.

To put it another way, there is a rather high probability of at
least 1 inch of snowfall across interior southern New England,
generally about 70-90%, within the 48-hour period ending 7 AM
Thursday. However, the probability of more than 6 inches of snowfall
is only 30-50% for that same period. Closer to the coasts, the
probability for 1 inch of snowfall is less than 50%, with the
probability for 6 inches of snow dropping to less than 20%.

It is expected that these probabilities will change with later
forecasts, as the details become better known.

Once this low pressure passes by later Wednesday, colder air should
then arrive for late next week. Early indications are this will be a
significant cooldown, with temperatures some 10-20 degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. W wind becoming more NW. Winds 8-12 kts gusting to 20-25
kts. Winds diminish Saturday night.

Sunday...High Confidence.

VFR to start, cigs decreasing to MVFR/IFR in -RA. Light SE winds
increase becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, slight chance
SN.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Sunday... High confidence.

* Gale Warning through early this morning across all waters.

Winds and seas slowly decrease into early Saturday. Gale Warnings
will be likely replaced with SCAs once the Gale Warning expires.

Seas 4-6 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3 ft overnight then increasing
to 4-6 ft again on Sunday.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW