010
FXUS61 KBOX 292354
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
654 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold weather continues tonight, along with a diminishing
wind. A warm front brings a period of rain and wind late Sunday
morning into the afternoon/evening, with rain moderate to heavy
at times, along with milder temperatures. A cold front ushers in
a return to drier and colder conditions Monday. Low pressure
tracking south of New England likely brings the seasons first
accumulating snow to interior portions of CT and MA. However,
details regarding the rain/snow line and specific accumulations
are still uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...

* Another cold night with lows in the 20s

Previous forecast remained on track this evening. Just looking
at some higher clouds moving in overnight with diminishing wind.
Mainly minor tweaks to bring the forecast back in line with
observed trends.

Previous Discussion...

1030+ MB ridge west of New England continues to advect eastward
this afternoon, resulting in diminishing winds. This combined
with a mostly clear conditions and a dry airmass, with dew pts
in the teens, will support ideal radiational cooling conditions
tonight. Thus, we followed the colder MOS guidance for lows
tonight, mainly in the 20s regionwide. As WAA aloft commences
later tonight, increasing high clouds combined with surface
winds becoming SE, will likely result in temps leveling off
late. Hence, coldest temps occur late this evening to just after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Rain late Sunday morning into afternoon & evening

* Milder, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in SE MA

* Becoming breezy with south winds 15-25 mph

Chilly, but a dry start to the day Sunday. However, rain
overspreads the region from late morning into the early
afternoon, as a warm front approaches the area. Model soundings
suggest the column may be cold enough for the precip possibly to
begin as a brief period of snow across western/central CT/MA
between 10 AM and 1 PM. This will be short lived, as the
boundary layer rapidly warms, with any snow quickly changing to
rain. Otherwise, strong thermal and moisture advection results
in a period of rain, briefly moderate to heavy at times. Good
model agreement on QPF totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.50, with
steadiest and heaviest rain from approximately 4P-10P, west to
east. A chilly rain for the interior, but in the coastal plain
(including the I-95 corridor), dew pts rise through the 40s to
near 50, as the warm sector advects northeast. This will yield a
noticeably milder day, with highs in the 40s regionwide and low
50s possible over southeast MA.

Becoming breezy Sunday afternoon & evening, especially in the
coastal plain, as warm sector overspreads the region. Model
soundings support south winds 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph
across southeast MA possible, including Cape Cod and the
Islands. Less wind across the interior valleys, as it takes
longer to scour out/erode today/tonight cold air.

The system remains progressive, with FROPA occurring later
Sunday night and dry weather overspreading SNE, along with
increasing CAA toward Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages

* Dry with seasonable temperatures to start the work week on
  Monday

* A coastal low-pressure system will bring substantial
  precipitation to southern New England Tuesday evening, with
  the potential for a plowable/shovelable snow for interior
  southern New England

* Cold and dry Wednesday-Saturday with next chance for precip
  Friday night

Monday and Monday night

Low-level northwest flow behind an exiting cold front will
support cold/dry weather in southern New England on Monday
with modest northwest winds. High pressure builds over the
region Monday afternoon supporting sunny skies. Temperatures
will be below normal on Monday with highs in the upper 30s to
low 40s. For reference, the normal high temperature in Boston
for December 1st is 52 degrees.

Monday night is expected to feature efficient radiational
cooling with light winds and clear skies for at least the
first half of the night. Later in the evening winds are forecast
to shift south as high pressure builds east of the region. This
will result in increasing cloudiness into Tuesday morning as
warmer air from the south overruns the cooler air already in
place. Nonetheless, we should radiate enough to experience
chilly temperatures Tuesday morning with lows in the teens and
20s for much of southern New England. The coastal areas,
especially The Cape/Islands should be more mild with temps in
the upper 20s/low 30s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

The highlight of the extended forecast is the forecast for
Tuesday. An area of low-pressure is expected to develop near
the Gulf Coast and move up the eastern seaboard Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Confidence is moderate to high that this
system will bring substantial precipitation to southern New
England between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. NBM
probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches of liquid
precipitation are currently ranging from 75-90 percent. There is
far less confidence however, with respect to potential snowfall
for southern New England. A few scenarios are in play, but
latest ensemble guidance has given the best chance for a
plowable/shovelable (3-4 inches) of snowfall across interior MA
and the high terrain.

Snowfall potential will be largely governed by the storm track,
which remains uncertain at this time. Until we can get a
clearer picture/higher confidence in the storm track we can only
lean on probabilistic forecasts to gauge who can expect what.
Probabilities for greater than 4 inches of snowfall are
currently ranging from 30 to 60 percent for areas in
Massachusetts north and west of I-495. Elsewhere, probabilities
for 4+ inches of snow are 30 percent or less with near zero
probabilities for southeast MA, the southern half of RI, Cape
Cod, and the Islands. That`s not to say no measurable snow is
possible, but the highest chances for a plowable snow reside
across the interior.

Wednesday through Saturday

Low-presure exits east over The Atlantic Wednesday morning. This
will be followed by a cold/dry air mass settling over the
Northeast for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be
well below normal through next Friday with daily high/low temps
in the upper 30s/low 40s and the teens/20s respectively.
Thursday night/Friday morning looks particularly frigid with
low temperatures currently forecast in the low to mid teens. NBM
probabilities for MinT<10 degrees are between 20 and 40 percent
for Thursday night. The next chance for precipitation looks to
be Friday night/Saturday when a wave of low- pressure may pass
north and west of southern New England. Stay tuned for further
details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW winds diminish.

Sunday...High confidence on trends, somewhat uncertain on exact
timing.

VFR to start the day, but rain and MVFR conditions quickly
overspread CT/MA/RI between 15z-18z from west to east. Then a
period of IFR/LIFR possible 20z-02z from west to east, in
moderate to heavy rain, low cigs and areas of fog. Light SE
winds in the morning, become S 15-25 KT afternoon and evening,
with gusts up to 30 kt along the south coast. This should
minimize LLWS, however the core of the low level jet may yield
marginal LLWS 21z Sun to 03z Mon over southeast MA,
WS020/18045KT.

Sunday night...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing.

MVFR/IFR at 00z, but quickly improving to VFR with FROPA and the
wind shift to the west 15-25 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF through Sunday morning.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF through 12z Sunday, then some
uncertainty on exact timing details.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA,
chance SN.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

With diminishing winds this evening, will let the Small Craft
Advisory expire shortly. Will likely need another such advisory
sometime from Sunday afternoon into Monday night.

Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence.

Gusty WNW winds diminish Saturday evening and overnight. Dry
weather and good vsby prevail into Sunday morning. Then a warm
front results in a period of rain from late Sunday morning into
Sunday evening, with rain and fog limiting vsby to 1-3 miles at
times. Light SE winds Sunday morning, become south in the
afternoon and evening, increasing with gusts up to 30 kt. Then a
cold front sweeps across the RI/MA waters later Sunday night,
ushering in dry weather and a wind shift to the west, with
speeds 15-25 kt.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough
seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Belk/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Belk/RM/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/RM/Nocera