919
FXUS61 KBOX 030741
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
241 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering snow bands should exit the area by daybreak. Drier weather
returns for today before an arctic cold front arrives Thursday
afternoon that may have a few snow showers and localized snow
squalls accompany it. This front will also usher in a much colder
airmass going into Thursday night and Friday. A coastal storm
tracks well to the south Friday night and Saturday but may
bring a bit of light snow to the region. Another cold front
moves through Sunday followed by another surge of very cold air
Sunday night and Monday. Mainly dry and cold conditions continue
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow bands early this morning come to an end by ~6 AM

* Drier day ahead with high pressure building in following storm`s
  exit, though temperatures remain below normal

Some light snow showers wrapping around over the region as the
coastal storm exits off to the ENE should come to an end by sunrise
this morning. High pressure then builds in from the SW, setting the
stage for a drier, sunnier day, even with some clouds sticking
around. Winds diminish significantly from the day prior. High
temperatures are still expected to be colder than normal for early
December, not climbing out of the mid 30s across the interior and
higher elevations. Highs should climb into the low 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and chilly overnight ahead of an arctic cold front

* Arctic cold front passes over the region Thursday
  afternoon/evening, bringing the chance for localized snow squalls
  and scattered snow showers

* Much colder air fills in behind the front

Winds tonight remain light with high pressure`s influence as cold
air aloft settles over the region as well. 925 mb temps around -2C
will support lows in the upper teens and low 20s for much of the
region, with temperatures closer to freezing over Cape Cod and the
Islands.

High pressure exits the region early Thursday ahead of an arctic
cold front expected to pass over southern New England during the
afternoon Thursday. The latest NAM and GFS snow squall parameters
are indicating a low chance for localized snow squalls in the
afternoon as this front moves through. Forecast soundings show a
very well-mixed environment post-front, but ahead of that also show
dry low to mid-levels; the instability is there, but there isn`t
much moisture to go with it. So, the chance for snow squalls for
southern New England remains low at this time, but they cannot be
completely ruled out. Some scattered snow showers with mostly
flurries are more likely across the region during this timeframe.
Winds will pick up considerably from the NW in the afternoon with
gusts approaching ~35 MPH for parts of the interior and close to 30
MPH elsewhere. Temperatures will fall quickly heading into the
nighttime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Arctic airmass moves in Thu night-Fri bringing very cold
  temperatures.

* Coastal system passing offshore Fri night-Sat. Light wintry precip
  possible. Minimal impacts expected.

Details...

Thursday Night and Friday:

Thursday night will likely start out on the gusty side with NW winds
behind the passage of a strong arctic front. Gusts 20-30 mph are
possible for the first half of Thursday night with stronger gusts up
to 45 mph possible for the Cape and Islands. Winds gradually trend
downward, especially after midnight. The big story for Thursday
night will be the cold. Diminishing winds later in the night and
minimal cloud cover will support efficient radiational cooling. An
arctic airmass with 850mb temperatures -18 to -21C advects into the
region overnight, setting up the region for the coldest temperatures
so far this season. Temperatures will likely plummet into the single
digits for the interior and teens along the coast. Winds chills may
make it feel more like negative single digits for the higher terrain
and single digits elsewhere overnight.

The arctic airmass remains in place for Friday, although 850mb
temperature anomaly is slightly moderated from overnight around -9
to -12C. This will support a chilly day with highs running 12-20
degrees below normal. Highs stay in the low to mid 20s for interior
southern New England and other areas struggling to reach 30.
Cape/Islands and south coast may end up a bit more moderated in the
low 30s.

Friday Night & Weekend:

Ensemble guidance shows a consensus for a transition to a more
active pattern heading into the weekend with a few weak waves moving
through mainly zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough moves
through the flow with a coastal low tracking offshore Friday night
into Saturday. There is a consensus among guidance that the best
moisture stays to the south of the region with the well offshore
track of the low. However, ensemble means indicate that the system
should brush close enough to bring light QPF amounts across SE and E
southern New England. Details are still lower confidence this far
out (timing, amounts) which will depend on the strength, moisture,
and track of the low. Overall a few snow showers are possible
overnight and rain/snow showers possible for Saturday. This is
appearing to likely be a light event with minor snow accumulations
(< 1.0") and low QPF overall (< 0.25" liquid). Temperatures moderate
more on Saturday with highs in the 30s and low 40s for the
Cape/Islands.

Another weak system moves through with an accompanying cold front
Sunday. This will bring another round of arctic air to southern New
England. High temperatures likely fall back into the 20s and low
30s. Confidence decreases in the details of the pattern toward mid-
week with potential for a few weak disturbances in flow which
could bring periodic chances for light precipitation.
Temperatures lean below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z update...

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence (timing of VFR).

MVFR-IFR improving toward VFR from west to east 06Z-12Z. Light
SN for interior terminals as well as BOS/PVD early this morning,
likely exiting by 12Z. Minor accum (Trace-0.5") possible at
BOS. Rain showers for Cape/Islands through 12Z. N-NNW winds
with gusts to 20-25 kts. 30-40 kt gusts possible for
Cape/Islands.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

Most terminals improve to VFR by 13Z. Cape/Islands will likely
hold onto the lower ceilings a little longer before improving to
VFR 14-18Z. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts (up to 25 kts for
Cape/Islands) in the morning decreasing in the afternoon. Winds
shift WSW after 21Z.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Light snow early this morning, ending 08-10Z. Conditions improve
to VFR 11-13Z. Moderate confidence on timing of VFR.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Thursday...High confidence.

Weak high pressure is expected to build in briefly to our SW today,
allowing winds to diminish as seas also decrease. However, they will
remain just elevated enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories. Winds
and seas may drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight, but
gusty W to NW winds will redevelop going into Thursday as the next
cold front arrives. Winds and seas could approach Gale Warning
criteria Thursday afternoon post-front, so a Gale Watch for the
outer waters, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay has been hoisted.

Higher astro tides will favor a low risk for some very minor coastal
flooding and splashover this morning for the eastern MA coastline
with NW winds, so a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect
through this morning`s high tide. Guidance still favors the highest
risk being south of Boston.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight
chance of snow.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ005-
     006-010>012.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-232-250-
     251-254-255.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ233>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Hrencecin/Mensch