471
FXUS61 KBOX 081901
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
201 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will usher in a chilly and blustery airmass
tonight into Saturday. High pressure then quickly follows
Saturday night, before moving east of the region Sunday. Low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes into Quebec and northern
New England will bring a period of showers sometime late Sunday
into early Monday. High pressure builds back into the region
later Monday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dry cold front will cross southern New England and move
offshore by late this evening. Besides the wind shift to the
northwest, this is when the colder air will start to arrive.
Despite the clear skies, not expecting much radiational cooling.
The cold advection will be strong enough to maintain gusty winds
all night. Below normal low temperatures, mainly in the 30s
away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure arrives from the west during the day Saturday,
then offshore Saturday night. Gusty northwest winds expected to
continue through the morning hours, then diminishing into
afternoon hours.

Dry weather and below normal temperatures continue through
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points...

* Period of showers Sun night/early Mon
* Partial cleaning Mon afternoon with highs in the 60s
* Dry & trending cooler Tue into Wed back to seasonable levels
* Pattern change with much needed rain by late next week?

Details...

Sunday into Monday...

High pressure slides southeast of the region on Sun as a
shortwave moves across the eastern Great Lakes and into
Quebec/northern New England Mon. The result will be a gradual
increase in clouds during the day Sun...but it should remain dry
with highs well up into the 50s to near 60. Given the track of
this system...the best forcing/deeper moisture will pass well to
our north. Nonetheless...it will induce a modest southwest LLJ
of 40-50 knots and a PWAT plume around 1.25 inches. While this
will be short- lived...there will be enough forcing/moisture for
a period of showers Sun night into early Mon. While we do expect
some measurable rainfall...amounts will be light and short-
lived. In fact, the showers will be already departing early Mon
followed by partial clearing by Mon afternoon. This will allow
highs to reach into the 60s Mon.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

Large high pressure across the northern Great Lakes Tue shifts
into Quebec Wed. The result will be dry weather with temps
trending cooler Tue and back to seasonable levels on Wed. Highs
look to be in the 50s to near 60 Tue and probably upper 40s to
the middle 50s by Wed.

Late Next Week...

There are some signs in the model guidance of a potentially
amplifying northern stream shortwave dropping southeastward from
the Great Lakes. Plenty of uncertainty remains on the strength
and potential amplification of this shortwave. This will
determine, where a surface low pressure system develops and its
potential impacts. If this potential coastal storm develops near
the Benchmark...we may finally see a significant rain event. On
the other hand...if it develops too far to the north and east
of our region we would miss out on the bulk of the rain. Plenty
of spread in the guidance/ensembles at this point...so certainly
will need a few more days to have a better idea. We can say
that if things do break in our favor...we may finally receive a
much needed soaking rainfall but that remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. Gusty W to NW winds into Saturday morning. Gusty NW winds
diminish some Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Scattered
cloud bases down to 040-060 with the passage of a cold front
late this afternoon and evening.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA.

Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories continue into Saturday
morning as a cold front crosses the waters this evening and
overnight. Winds and waves will gradually diminish Saturday
afternoon with Gale Warnings transitioning to Small Craft
Advisories at that time.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers.

Veterans Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The prolonged period of dry weather coupled with a very dry
ground will continue to result in elevated fire weather concerns
through Saturday. Plenty of sunshine is expected. Afternoon
high temperatures Saturday in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Minimum afternoon relative
humidity values Saturday are expected to range between 25 and
40 percent.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>024-
     026.
RI...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ230-233>237.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank
FIRE WEATHER...Belk/Dooley