908
FXUS61 KBOX 082311
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
611 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry tonight and early Sunday. A warm front will bring
increasing clouds during the day Sunday with showers/rain
arriving afternoon-early evening. Area of low pressure will
bring another round of rain Sunday night into Monday, ending
Monday evening. Blustery and unseasonably cold weather follows
the storm on Tuesday. Temperatures moderate somewhat for
Wednesday and Thursday but remain below normal, then another
surge of colder air moves in for Friday and Saturday with
mostly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Cool and mainly dry tonight.

Brief surface high pressure will be over the region tonight support
dry conditions with clear skies to start the night with a deck of
mid level clouds moving through overnight. High-res guidance hints
at the potential for an isolated shower out west overnight, but
there should be enough dry air in place to limit this, worst case a
sprinkle/flake. NW winds decrease after sunset turning toward the NE
overnight. This will allow decent cooling with temperatures falling
into the 30s for the interior and low 40s for coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Round of showers/rain arrive in the afternoon, decreasing late
  Sunday night.

Details...

A frontal system will approach the region Sunday morning, eventually
pushing northeastward across southern New England toward the
evening. This will consist of a surface low tracking over NY  while
a secondary weak low tracks across SE MA or just offshore. An
associated warm front will push northward on Sunday with higher
moisture advecting into the region while providing some broad
ascent. This will increase clouds Sunday morning generally from SW
to NE. As the low tracks northward, this will push in a round of
rain.

Global and high-resolution models are coming into better agreement
on the timing of the rain with showers increasing from south to
north between 12-4pm. There are still some difference in start time
as there is potential for earlier drizzle ahead of the approaching
warm front as the mid-upper levels gradually moisten. Showers/rain
likely decrease Sunday night with some isolated weak showers or
drizzle before it comes to an end a little around/little after
midnight. HREF guidance shows an areas of weak elevated instability
brush across SE MA around the evening. This may support a brief
rumble of thunder and some briefly higher rain rates. Rain amounts
are expected to be light (< 0.25") for most. Slightly higher for
Cape/Islands with a likely range of 0.25-0.50", locally up to 0.75"
in any embedded convective showers.

High temperatures Sunday will depend on how far north the warm front
makes it across southern New England. The south coast and
Cape/Islands should stay on the warm end with highs in the upper 50s
while northern MA will stay in the low to mid 50s with even some
upper 40s for the higher terrain of northern MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Periods of rain Monday ending during the evening

* Blustery and unseasonably cold Tue. Wind gusts to 30-40 mph

* Mostly dry and blustery at times Wed through Sat with below normal
  temps.

High amplitude upper trough from Gt Lakes to the Gulf coast will
lift NE across New England during Tue. Surface low pres moves off
the mid Atlc coast and tracks across SE New Eng late Mon before
lifting N into Maine Mon night. Strong shortwave energy and
favorable upper jet dynamics combined with deep moisture plume will
bring periods of rain Mon. Ensemble guidance not indicating any
heavy rainfall with 0.50" QPF probs close to zero. Temps may get
close to 60 across SE New Eng where best chance to briefly get into
warm sector along the low track, but low-mid 50s further inland and
40s in the Berkshires. Rain ends Mon evening as the low pres lifts
to the north followed by much drier air moving in from the west. The
rain may end as a brief period of snow showers in the Berkshires as
the column cools from top down, but elsewhere dry air should win out
before it gets cold enough for any snow. Lows Mon night will drop
into the mid-upper 20s interior and lower 30s coastal plain.

Blustery and unseasonably cold day Tue as deep upper trough moves
across New Eng. 850 mb temps drop to near -10C which will result in
highs ranging from mid-upper 30s higher terrain to low 40s coastal
plain. Soundings show a deep and well mixed boundary layer Tue
supporting westerly wind gusts to 30-40 mph in the afternoon making
it feel more like the 20s and 30s. It looks mainly dry as the column
is quite dry with PWATs less than 0.2" but can`t rule out a few
flurries or snow showers in the higher terrain as cold pool aloft
with -35C 500 mb temps move into the region. And a few ocean effect
showers are possible over the Islands. Otherwise sunshine will mix
with developing diurnal cu.

Deep upper trough moves out Tue night but broad trough sets up
across New Eng through the end of the week as a series of fast
moving shortwaves reinforce the trough. The trough then amplifies
east of New Eng on Saturday. Moisture is quite limited so expecting
dry conditions most of the time with sunshine and diurnal cu, but
can`t rule out a few brief showers at times Wed through Fri, with
low confidence on timing. Temps recover Wed-Thu but remain below
normal then another shot of colder air moves back in for Fri-Sat. It
will also be blustery at times from multiple shortwave passages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Winds turn NW to NE under 10 kt through 04-06z. Few mid-
level decks may move through overnight.

Sunday: Moderate confidence.

VFR early AM, trending MVFR after 15z as showers arrive from
the south 17-21z. IFR conditions possible in evening. E winds
8-12 kts with some gusts around 18 kts possible closer to 20 kts
for Cape/Islands.

Sunday Night: Moderate Confidence.

MVFR. Models are trending toward more widespread IFR ceilings
overnight although confidence is still moderate for extent of
IFR. Winds E turning SE for the coastal terminals. Speeds 8-12
kts for eastern terminals and less than 10 kts for interior
terminals. Gusts around 20 kts for Cape/Islands early. Winds
overall decrease toward 12z.


KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
NW to NE winds tonight less than 10 kts. Low end VFR to MVFR
ceilings develop after 15z. Showers likely arrive between 20-22z
with ceilings dropping more uniformly to MVFR. Chance for IFR.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Veterans Day through Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Winds decrease below 25 kts this afternoon-tonight, but seas 3-6
ft have kept SCAs going for the southern outer waters tonight.
There will be a period period of sub-SCA conditions Sunday
morning before SE winds increase to 15-25 kt Sunday
afternoon/evening. This may support another issuance of SCAs for
that time frame. Another period of light rains Sunday
afternoon-night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Veterans Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are still running high coming out of the full
moon from late in the week, but should continue to fall during
the Sunday and Monday. Continuing to monitor the high tides
Sunday and Monday mornings at Nantucket for possible minor
coastal flooding, with Stevens Institute supporting about a 1 ft
storm surge. However, Stevens Institute guidance keeps means
below minor flood stage for Nantucket as well as locations like
Boston for the Sun/Mon high tides. However, their "reasonable
worst case" indicates there is potential for Nantucket to reach
minor flood stage Monday.

Will continue to reassess this potential over the next day/two
for possible coastal flood headlines, but significant flooding
is not expected.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Mensch
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FT
MARINE...KJC/Mensch
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Loconto/Mensch