065
FXUS61 KBOX 261943
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
343 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering rain will move out of the region, and a cold front
then ushers in a much cooler airmass tonight. Cloudy, cool, and
blustery conditions on Sunday. High pressure returns with dry
conditions for Monday and Tuesday, along with mild to warm
temperatures. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday
with a few showers possible late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Seasonable temperatures to end the week with
the next chance for rain by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Drying out with dropping temperatures and gusty winds with frontal
  passage tonight

Any lingering rain will exit the region tonight around midnight
and a cold front will progress through, which will also help
clear some of today`s cloud cover. Gusty west winds to around
25 knots will be possible. Drier conditions take hold as this
cooler and drier airmass moves in; dewpoints expected to fall
from the 50s and 60s down to the 30s and 40s, and PWATs decrease
down to around 0.5". Lows tonight expected to be in the low 40s
across the interior, with mid 40s for much of the coastal plain
into the Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Cool and blustery before winds diminish overnight

Clouds return for Sunday due to the cyclonic flow aloft from a
trough sitting over the region. Winds shift more NW as the day goes
on. CAA will continue to promote the mixing of winds aloft down to
the surface, fueling gusts to 35 kt in the highest elevations. Most
guidance is indicating that the highest winds are possible in
the afternoon to evening hours when the core of the 50-60 kt
jet will be over much of southern New England as the trough
continues to move east. However, the mixing of the strongest
winds may be cut off as the jet decouples in the evening hours,
so held off on any wind headlines for the time being. Clear
conditions make a return Sunday night as high pressure begins to
move in after the low exits. Highs Sunday are expected to be in
the 50s, and lows Sunday night should be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Much warmer with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. A few showers
  are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an
  approaching cold front.

* Near seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday. While Thursday is
  likely dry, rain chances return for Friday.

High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast early neat week, but
extends far enough north into New England to maintain dry weather
through Tuesday. Our region will also be on the warmer side of this
high pressure with increasing southwest winds, especially Tuesday.

A low pressure moving across eastern Canada should push its cold
front across southern New England some time Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This will mean a chance for showers during this
time.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday with dry weather, but this
time its positioning will lead to lower temperatures. Another low
pressure moving across eastern Canada should send another cold front
our way late next week. Thus, there is a risk for more showers late
next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Rest of Today: Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR/IFR in bands of steady moderate rain, most of which
has started to move offshore. More rain and continued IFR
conditions are moving through the region at this time, which is
expected to continue through the rest of today. Possible SCT
SHRA/TS near/west of ORH after 20z, although development and
strength of any TS would depend on how quickly we see any breaks
in OVC. If we do see any storms, they would likely be weakening
as they move east of ORH. Occasional rumbles of thunder also
possible south of the Cape. S/SW winds around 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts up to upper 20-kt range.

Tonight: High confidence.

Improvement toward SCT-BKN VFR with cold frontal passage,
though some MVFR bases may develop overnight in western
airports. Winds become W/WNW around 10-15 kt with gusts 25 kt
(up to 30 kt high terrain).

Sunday through Sunday Night: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 30-35 kt possible across the
region during the afternoon/evening hours, dropping off
overnight.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in timing.

Scattered RA possible over the next few hours, ending around 02z.
Cigs improving to borderline VFR levels overnight. Gusty winds
continue through tonight with the cold frontal passage.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Timing for lifting of cigs dependent on frontal passage.
Improvement to MVFR possible around 21z, but may be later.
Isolated TS could be possible this evening.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Southerly flow continues to strengthen into the SCA range for
the rest of today, with winds 25-30 kt and seas 4-7 ft. Rain
and reduced visibilities expected until a sharp frontal passage
this evening, bringing a windshift to W/NW around 15-25 kt.
Sunday NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft.
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue through
Sunday night across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and
Cape Cod Bay, with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas
Sunday night ranging from 4-6 ft.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250-
     254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin/Mensch