033
FXUS61 KBOX 310914
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
414 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include Cape Cod tonight
into Thursday. Gale Warnings will be converted to Small Craft
Advisories by daybreak.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and chilly today. Winds not as strong as yesterday.

- Period of snow tonight into Thursday.

- High pressure brings dry conditions and continued cold
  temperatures through the start of next week.

- Light to moderate freezing spray over the waters is possible
  late this week into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and chilly today. Winds not as strong as
yesterday.

Pressure gradient relaxes significantly compared to yesterday.
Expecting more of a southwest wind today as well. Thus, the
current lake effect snow bands should end later this morning
across portions of western MA. Not expecting much in terms of
snow accumulation for the rest of this morning. For most of
southern New England, today will be dry and not quite as cold as
yesterday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Period of snow tonight into Thursday.

There is growing confidence in a period of snow starting this
evening and ending Thursday morning, coinciding with New Year`s
Eve celebrations. Please plan accordingly.

Confidence remains high in a light snowfall across most of
southern New England. This will be the result of a potent mid
level shortwave arriving about the same time as an arctic cold
front. Anticipating just enough lift to squeeze the limited
moisture into some fluffy snow. Timing-wise, thinking snowfall
starts to arrive from west to east between 9 PM and midnight for
most, with the heaviest snowfall between 3 AM and 7 AM across
portions of southeast MA.

Latest high resolution guidance continued to give confidence in
the risk for ocean-enhanced snowfall across portions of
southeast MA. With water temperatures around 40F, that will
lower snow:liquid ratios slightly. That said, still expecting a
fluffier snow across southeast MA. The main limitation on
snowfall will be its duration, as this arctic front is quite
progressive and much drier air should follow behind it. 31/00Z
HREF had a rather strong signal for around 1 inch/hour snowfall
rates across portions of RI and southeast MA late tonight.

The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include Cape Cod
tonight for snowfall totals of 2-4 inches. There is still a
chance this advisory may need to be expanded into Bristol and
Plymouth Counties in MA. Do not have enough confidence in seeing
more than 3 inches of snowfall there but it could be close,
especially towards the South Coast.

Snow ends mid to late morning on New Year`s Day, followed by
dry and cold conditions. Breezy northwest winds with gusts 20
to 30 mph leads to feels-like temperatures in the single digits
and teens at times.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure brings dry conditions and
continued cold temperatures through the start of next week.

By Friday, high pressure will begin to dominate across southern
New England and a dry pattern will emerge. High pressure
combined with 925 mb temperatures between -10C and -15C will
allow for high temperatures through Monday to remain relatively
stable, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Overnight lows are likely
to be slightly more variable, in the mid teens through the first
half of this weekend, then dropping to single digits to lower
teens by Sunday night.

Some guidance is indicating southern New England could see
another round of snow on Monday. However, uncertainty on timing,
placement, and snow amounts remains high. Something to keep an
eye on through this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Light to moderate freezing spray over the waters
is possible late this week into this weekend.

A lengthy period of cold air over the warmer waters will give rise
to the likelihood of freezing spray becoming a concern for mariners
through a good portion of this weekend. As we get closer to this
weekend, guidance has trended slightly higher with the risk for
pockets of moderate freezing spray. Will need to monitor these
details over the coming days, as freezing spray marine headlines
may be needed across some of the southern inner waters.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence.

VFR through the day. Westerly wind gusts 20-25 kts near the
eastern coast gradually diminishing through the morning.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

MVFR conditions, with pockets of IFR, under -SN spread from
west to east 03-06z Thursday. Minor accumulations likely,
especially across SE MA and Cape/Islands. Southwesterly winds
5-10 kts.

Thursday: High confidence.

MVFR improves to VFR gradually throughout Thursday once the
snow moves out 12-15z.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in arrival time of snow.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in arrival time of snow.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday...High confidence.

Winds and seas continue to diminish this morning. However, it
will take some time for seas to subside less than 5 feet across
the outer coastal waters. Expecting to convert the remaining Gale
Warnings to Small Craft Advisories by daybreak.

The risk for light freezing spray across the coastal waters
continues, mainly across the eastern nearshore waters this
morning. The risk for more widespread freezing spray should
return Thursday.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Freezing spray.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of
freezing rain, slight chance of snow.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for MAZ022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ232>234-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ235-
     250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn