073
FXUS61 KBOX 061902
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
Issued by National Weather Service New York NY
302 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will move through the area
this afternoon into early Thursday.

- A cool down to near seasonable temperatures with unsettled
conditions this weekend through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will move through the area
this afternoon into early Thursday.

Increasing clouds and increasing shower chances this
afternoon from west to east as a cold front approaches the area from
the west. Latest KBOX reflectivity showing the first batch of light
to moderate rainfall quickly moving east across central MA/CT.
Latest CAMs/short term guidance show this batch quickly moving east
and out of the area by early evening. Current SPC mesoanalysis not
showing much in the way of instability, so current thinking is
that any embedded thunder will be quite localized with this
activity. Guidance is also trending toward a second batch of
post frontal precipitation after 00Z this evening, mainly for
southern portions of the CWA. Total rainfall amounts of just a
few tenths for most, with higher amounts in any thunderstorms.
Best chances for the amounts, and attendant embedded thunder,
are across the Berkshires and points north and west.

Cloud cover and precip will limit high temperatures today, relative
to the past few days, in the mid and upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cool down to near seasonable temperatures with unsettled
conditions this weekend through early next week.

Drying behind the front Thursday into Friday with high building to
the south. Temperatures will be in the 60s (cooler in the
mountains, warmer at the coast) Thursday, with chilly lows on
Friday morning in the upper 30s and low 40s, under good
radiational cooling conditions away from from the coast.

Conditions then look unsettled for the weekend. The next
opportunity for rain arrives sometime early Saturday as a mid-
level trough and weak surface low pressure system passes through
the northeast. Raw type of day with highs in the lower 60s;
probabilities of rain of half an of an inch or more is around
20- 30% per NBM. Mother`s Day for now is trending dryer for the
area, with low to mid 70s under partly to mostly cloud skies.
Thereafter a series of shortwaves traverse the region, with
uncertainty on the sensible weather. Rain chances increase
Sunday night into Monday with rain likely by Monday afternoon.
NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" are between 30-50%, but only
10-20% for more than in inch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

This afternoon and Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Terminals remain mainly VFR this afternoon as MVFR cigs have been
slow to materialize. Gradual transition to MVFR later this afternoon
to IFR conditions by the evening with pockets of LIFR for
Cape/Islands and potentially south coast. Showers move offshore
tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions improve from west to east late
tonight into early Thursday morning.

Thursday: High confidence.

VFR. Wind WNW 8-12 kt, localized sea breeze possible.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR with MVFR or lower possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High confidence.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue into this afternoon,
then gradually improve tonight. Seas remain elevated on the southern
waters into early Thursday afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ231>235-
     237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

UPDATE..DBR