566
FXUS61 KBOX 012309
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
709 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry weather for most of Wednesday with below normal
temperatures, then an approaching warm front will bring a period
of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with pockets
of mixed wintry precipitation possible across the interior at
the onset Wednesday night. Milder conditions arrive Thursday
into Friday, then trend cooler next weekend with unsettled
conditions returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Colder tonight with below normal temperatures

High pressure over eastern Canada builds into New England
tonight. Gusty NW winds will diminish, and establish rather good
radiational cooling conditions to go along with modest cold air
advection for the first part of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry for most Wed with below normal temperatures
* Low risk for some spotty freezing rain or light snow Wed night

Strong high pressure moves off to the east Wednesday. A low
pressure over the upper Midwest should approach the Great Lakes
by Wednesday evening. The warm front associated with this low
pressure should then approach southern New England late in the
day. Increasing clouds for sure during this time, but not as
confident in the timing or type of precipitation.

Forecast soundings are supportive of a mostly rain scenario.
However, there are windows for some light snow or icing across
the higher terrain of central and western MA. This time of year,
the pavement tends to be a little warmer, so not quite as
concerned about impacts. However, will continue to monitor this
possibility.

Below normal temperatures expected to continue Wednesday, then
should trend closer to normal Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warm front passes through Thu with widespread showers and
  warmer conditions.

* Cooler and drier Fri behind a cold front.

* Unsettled weekend expected with a nearby frontal boundary.

* Trough and cooler temperatures settle in early next week.

Thursday Night and Friday

Broad upper-level ridge builds over the southeast CONUS
Thursday. This will allow return flow from the south to advect
warm moist air back into southern New England. Closer to the
surface, a warm front will allow warmer air to overrun
antecedent cooler air in place. As a result, we can expect
lingering shower chances through much of the day Thursday into
Thursday evening. During the day Thursday, south/southwest flow
will lift a warm front through the region with spotty showers.
925 hPa temps rise to between 15 and 20 Celsius, which even with
the extensive cloud cover, should support high temperatures in
the mid 60s at the surface. Coastal locations stay cooler in the
mid to upper 50s.

A cold front then pushes through the region Thursday night into
Friday which will usher drier air over the region. High pressure
will gradually over the region through the day with dry
northwesterly winds. Push of drier air will allow for widespread
sunshine by the mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures remain mild on
Friday in the mid 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Unsettled weather returns this weekend as a nearby frontal
boundary provides a path for a series of disturbances to track
near Southern New England. Expect generally wet conditions with
periods of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.
Temperatures will be cooler with day time highs in the upper
40s/lower 50s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Ensemble mean 72-hour forecasts between Saturday and Monday
supports 0.5 to 1 inches of new rainfall by Monday morning.

Monday and Tuesday

By early next week, ensembles show a deep trough digging over
the northeast CONUS. Impacts to sensible weather may include
below normal temperatures with scattered rain, and perhaps
elevation snow, showers. We will have to watch for the chance
of an embedded shortwave to enhance precipitation chances by
next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

VFR, dry weather and diminishing winds.

Wednesday...High Confidence

VFR. NE wind 5-10 kt becoming SE-S in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher
terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but some risk for -SHSN or -FZRA
across the interior.

BOS TAF...High confidence. Chance for -SN to mix in at the onset
of precipitation.

BDL TAF...High confidence. Chance for -SN to mix in at the
onset of precipitation.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night...High confidence.

High pressure builds across the waters late tonight into
Wednesday. While winds diminish, seas will take longer to
subside. Small Craft Advisories continue. Increasing southeast
winds behind a warm front Wednesday night should result in
building seas once more.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain showers likely.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
showers likely.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231-235-
     237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/FT
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...Belk/FT