133
FXUS61 KBOX 291835
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
135 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold weather continues Saturday night, along with a
diminishing wind. A warm front brings a period of rain and wind late
Sunday morning into the afternoon/evening, with rain moderate to
heavy at times, along with milder temperatures. A cold front ushers
in a return to drier and colder conditions Monday. Low pressure
tracking south of New England likely brings the seasons first
accumulating snow to interior portions of CT and MA. However,
details regarding the rain/snow line and specific accumulations are
still uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Another cold night with lows in the 20s

1030+ MB ridge west of New England continues to advect eastward this
afternoon, resulting in diminishing winds. This combined with a
mostly clear conditions and a dry airmass, with dew pts in the
teens, will support ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight.
Thus, we followed the colder MOS guidance for lows tonight, mainly
in the 20s regionwide. As WAA aloft commences later tonight,
increasing high clouds combined with surface winds becoming SE, will
likely result in temps leveling off late. Hence, coldest temps occur
late this evening to just after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Rain late Sunday morning into afternoon & evening

* Milder, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in SE MA

* Becoming breezy with south winds 15-25 mph

Chilly, but a dry start to the day Sunday. However, rain overspreads
the region from late morning into the early afternoon, as a warm
front approaches the area. Model soundings suggest the column may be
cold enough for the precip possibly to begin as a brief period of
snow across western/central CT/MA between 10 AM and 1 PM. This will
be short lived, as the boundary layer rapidly warms, with any snow
quickly changing to rain. Otherwise, strong thermal and moisture
advection results in a period of rain, briefly moderate to heavy at
times. Good model agreement on QPF totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.50,
with steadiest and heaviest rain from approximately 4P-10P, west to
east. A chilly rain for the interior, but in the coastal plain
(including the I-95 corridor), dew pts rise through the 40s to near
50, as the warm sector advects northeast. This will yield a
noticeably milder day, with highs in the 40s regionwide and low 50s
possible over southeast MA.

Becoming breezy Sunday afternoon & evening, especially in the
coastal plain, as warm sector overspreads the region. Model
soundings support south winds 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph
across southeast MA possible, including Cape Cod and the Islands.
Less wind across the interior valleys, as it takes longer to scour
out/erode today/tonight cold air.

The system remains progressive, with FROPA occurring later Sunday
night and dry weather overspreading SNE, along with increasing CAA
toward Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key Messages:

*  A wintry event remains possible Tue into early on Wed. Confidence
   remains low on the details. Greatest chance for snowfall
   accumulations with possible impacts remains across interior
   Southern New England.

* Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures
  favored.

Latest guidance suite remained rather consistent with the overall
forecast theme for this time period. Still monitoring the potential
for some snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by colder and
drier conditions late next week.

That said, like most early season winter storms, timing is
everything. We are still at the time of year where snowfall is more
likely at night than during the day. This is largely due to
temperatures. These are just the details that are just not known
with enough certainty to get specific on potential snowfall
accumulations. The latest NationalBlend had a 6-7 inch spread in
snowfall accumulations between the 25th and 75th percentile, which is
a sign of this uncertainty.

To put it another way, there is a rather high probability of at
least 1 inch of snowfall across interior southern New England,
generally about 70-90%, within the 48-hour period ending 7 AM
Thursday. However, the probability of more than 6 inches of snowfall
is only 30-50% for that same period. Closer to the coasts, the
probability for 1 inch of snowfall is less than 50%, with the
probability for 6 inches of snow dropping to less than 20%.

It is expected that these probabilities will change with later
forecasts, as the details become better known.

Once this low pressure passes by later Wednesday, colder air should
then arrive for late next week. Early indications are this will be a
significant cooldown, with temperatures some 10-20 degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW winds diminish.

Sunday...High confidence on trends, somewhat uncertain on exact
timing.

VFR to start the day, but rain and MVFR conditions quickly
overspread CT/MA/RI between 15z-18z from west to east. Then a period
of IFR/LIFR possible 20z-02z from west to east, in moderate to heavy
rain, low cigs and areas of fog. Light SE winds in the morning,
become S 15-25 KT afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 30 kt
along the south coast. This should minimize LLWS, however the core
of the low level jet may yield marginal LLWS 21z Sun to 03z Mon over
southeast MA, WS020/18045KT.

Sunday night...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing.

MVFR/IFR at 00z, but quickly improving to VFR with FROPA and the
wind shift to the west 15-25 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF through Sunday morning.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF through 12z Sunday, then some
uncertainty on exact timing details.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, slight chance
SN.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

130 PM update...

Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence.

Gusty WNW winds diminish Saturday evening and overnight. Dry weather
and good vsby prevail into Sunday morning. Then a warm front results
in a period of rain from late Sunday morning into Sunday evening,
with rain and fog limiting vsby to 1-3 miles at times. Light SE
winds Sunday morning, become south in the afternoon and evening,
increasing with gusts up to 30 kt. Then a cold front sweeps across
the RI/MA waters later Sunday night, ushering in dry weather and a
wind shift to the west, with speeds 15-25 kt.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Nocera
MARINE...Belk/Nocera