003
FXUS61 KBOX 071118
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
618 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold today. An arctic front moves through overnight
tonight into Monday morning with a low chance for brief
scattered snow showers, primarily for northern MA. Well below
normal temperatures Monday with an arctic airmass overhead. More
unsettled overall next week with a few systems moving through
the region. This will bring periodic chances for rain/snow
showers starting Tuesday night, continuing into Saturday. Very
gradual warming trend into Tuesday with highs around normal
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

* Mix of sun and clouds through the day

High pressure builds in for the start of the day ahead of a weak
mid-level shortwave moving in from the west. Light winds prevail for
much of the day with high pressure overhead, coming from mainly the
NW for the first half of the day. Some brief clearing is expected in
the mid morning hours before filling in through the afternoon ahead
of the shortwave. Highs supported by 925 mb temperatures around
-5C will likely be in the mid 30s for most, with low 40s for
 Cape Cod and the Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Low chance for scattered snow showers tonight

* Arctic air returns for Monday

Associated with the shortwave moving across the region late Sunday
is a moisture-starved cold front. This will usher in another arctic
airmass to start the week, with 925 mb temperatures tanking to
between -11C and -15C late tonight into Monday morning. Lows tonight
will dip back into the mid to upper teens for most and into the low
20s for Cape Cod and the Islands.

Latest guidance has trended precipitation chances over southern New
England down a bit and drier air aloft will aid in decreasing
chances for spot snow shower or two. At most, a low chance for some
snow showers lingers for northern MA.

NW winds pick up Sunday night into Monday post-front with good
mixing, so gusts between 20-30 MPH are possible through much of
Monday. The arctic airmass aloft remains over the region and high
pressure builds back in briefly post-front. So, not much improvement
from overnight temperatures is expected; 925 mb temperatures remain
around -11C through the day, so highs in the 20s and 30s can be
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Periodic chances for precipitation next week starting Tuesday
  night, continuing through Saturday.

* Uncertainty in pattern details (timing, amounts, precip type),
  especially Wednesday onward.

Details...

Surface high pressure shifts into the region Monday night helping
relax the pressure gradient. This will support decreasing winds;
however, elevated winds may linger a bit longer over the waters
overnight. Clear skies, light wind, and a well below normal airmass
aloft will support temperatures dropping into the single digits and
teens Monday night. Can`t rule out a few higher elevation spots
dropping a little below zero.

There is a consensus among ensemble guidance for shift to an active
pattern starting later Tuesday, continuing through next weekend. The
pattern features the passage of several embedded disturbances in the
flow aloft bringing periodic chances of rain/snow showers through
the week. However, there is still uncertainty in the details
including timing of showers and expected amounts, especially mid-
week onward.

The first shot at showers comes Tuesday night. Ensembles show light
amounts with scattered snow showers bringing mainly a trace to an
inch, with the greatest chance at an inch or greater for the higher
elevations of interior MA. For the south coast and Cape/Islands,
rain/snow showers are possible. Another round or two of showers is
likely sometime Wednesday into Thursday. Precip type will become
more clear as we gain more details about the system track and
timing. Temperatures lean warmer for Wednesday during the day. This
would favor rain or rain/snow showers higher up. The cold front
swings through Weds nigh which may bring another round of rain/snow
showers with it.

Some cold advection showers are possible later in the week. There is
potential for yet another wave to move through Friday-Saturday.
There is still plenty of uncertainty in the timing and track of the
wave and low pressure which will influence the precipitation
chances. Things will become more clear as we get closer. Something
that is higher confidence is the arrival of colder air by the end of
the weekend with below normal temperatures returning to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update:

Today...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. After 18z, winds briefly may go VRB
before shifting to the S and SE/ESE for BOS. Other terminals may
see a similar pattern. Winds continue to shift toward the W/WSW
after 00Z. Mid-level ceilings move in during the afternoon.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Mid-level ceilings early tonight. Winds shifting toward WSW
after 00z 5-10 kts. Frontal passage overnight between 05-09Z.
Gusts start to pick up after 06z at around 20 kts. Low chance
of -SN for northern terminals. Probabilities too low to include
in TAF.

Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds with gusts 20-30 kts. Winds gradually
decreasing after 18Z.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...High confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions expected through today, with winds
and seas below small craft advisory thresholds. Light S winds
continue into most of today, then become NW tonight around 10-15
kt. Seas 3 ft or less all waters thru Sun.

Winds pick up post-front tonight into Mon and seas build to 5-7
ft over the outer waters through Mon. Gusts between 20-30 kt
are possible across all waters Mon morning, with occasional
gusts to 35 kt possible for the northern outer waters. Small
Craft Advisories have been issued for the waters starting at 06z
tonight, continuing through 06z Tue for the outer waters and
ending at 21z today for the coastal waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Hrencecin/Mensch