224
FXUS61 KBOX 152000
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
300 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

After a dry Saturday, a frontal system will bring a period of rain
tonight, then drying out and becoming windy Sunday. Blustery and
below average temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Moderating trend
in temperatures with decreasing winds through the midweek.
Frontal system arrives late in the week bringing the next chance
for meaningful precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages...

* A quick shot of rain showers overnight, ending by early Sunday
  morning.

Our dry, quiet weekend will be briefly interrupted tonight thanks to
a quick mid level trough and surface frontal system which dives
through SNE tonight and Sunday. This will lead to a night of mild
low temperatures in rainy conditions before drying out by early
Sunday morning. We`ll see cloudcover increasing this afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching warm front which arrives after 21z,
moving from south to north with increased moisture overspreading the
region. Dewpoints rise into the upper 40s (interior) and 50s (south
coast). Isentropically forced precipitation then arrives after 6pm
aided by convergence ahead of a 50 kts LLJ. It will be a minimal
impact event given the quick nature, in after 6pm and largely out by
6am. Storm total rainfall looks to be anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50
inches and some limited elevated instability could lead to some
localized downpours.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Sunday is windy with gusts of 30-40 mph most likely, up to 45 mph
  in the high terrain.

The cold front drops through early Sunday morning ushering a much
drier post frontal airmass with PWATs quickly crashing from 1+" to
<0.4". This should allow for quickly clearing skies by mid morning.
However, expect a mix of clouds and sun for much of the day as a
layer of moisture around 850mb combined with the lingering cold
pool/trough aloft will keep diurnal clouds around. This feature will
also be enough to produce some spotty showers during the day, so
while the vast majority will be dry, you may encounter a passing
shower. The other thing of note on Sunday will be gusty winds. Cold
advection behind the front leads to a well mixed boundary layer,
tapping into the 45 kt 850 mb jet. Thus, expecting widespread wind
gusts 30-40 mph with sporadic gusts of 45-50 mph possible in the
east slopes of the Berkshires. Sunday night, not much change as
things stay quite breezy. However, lows will be colder thanks to the
cooler airmass, in the 20s compared to the mid 30s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Mainly dry and windy Mon-Tue with below normal temps
* Less wind and a bit milder Wed-Thu
* Unsettled weather with seasonable temps Friday

Monday

Outgoing frontal system matures into a fairly deep cyclone as it
moves into the Maritimes Sunday night. Incoming area of high
pressure from the Midwest results in a steep pressure gradient and
pressure rises. BUFKIT forecast soundings show ideal profiles for
gusty winds starting Sunday night with a deep mixed layer up to
850mb and average wind speeds around 40kts through the layer. The
limiting factor will be the strength of the low level jet. Guidance
has remained fairly steady with keeping the magnitude between 40 and
45kts at the top of the mixed layer. So, while it will be windy
Sunday and Monday, most areas will likely fall shy of wind advisory
criteria. Greatest chance of reaching criteria will be in the higher
terrain, particularly on the lee of the Berkshires where downslope
winds may be locally higher. Future forecast updates will continue
to monitor trends in guidance.

Midweek

Dry pattern for the midweek period as PWATs are low with no
significant shortwave passages. By the end of the week, moisture
will be approaching from the west ahead of low pres moving through
the Great Lakes so may see some wet weather develop Friday. Will see
moderating temps and less wind through Wed-Thu as high pres builds
into the region. Mildest day will be Friday as increasing SW flow
brings seasonable temps back to SNE. Watching an approaching frontal
system for later Friday into Saturday. This will likely bring the
next best chance for meaningful precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

This afternoon...High confidence.

VFR with gradually lowering cigs late today in the west. NW wind
5-10 kt becoming W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in timing.

Cigs lowering to MVFR then IFR-LIFR with rain overspreading
00-03z. Rain exits 07-10z with improving conditions toward
daybreak. S-SW wind 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt developing along
immediate south coast and Cape/Islands becoming SW-W toward
daybreak.

Sunday...High confidence.

Lingering MVFR improving to VFR by mid morning. A few rain or
snow showers possible in western MA in the afternoon. Increasing
W winds with gusts to 35 kt developing in the afternoon.

Sunday night...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty W winds continue gusting 20-30 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings for Sunday into Mon

A developing low level jet will bring increasing SW winds
tonight with gusts to 25-35 kt after midnight, strongest gusts
over southern waters where brief gales are possible. Then on
Sunday winds shift to W with gale force gusts to 35-40 kt on
most of the waters. Building seas tonight and Sunday reaching
8-12 ft Sunday afternoon over the southern waters. Winds and
seas remain elevated Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ231-
     251.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ250.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 2 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/FT
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJC/FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW/FT