592
FXUS61 KBOX 241847
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
247 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers today begin to die off heading into tonight. Dry
conditions expected Sunday, but an occasional pop-up shower is
possible. Couldn`t rule out a stray shower on Memorial Day, too,
in interior Southern New England, and while still cooler than
normal, Monday should feature a bit more sun. A warming trend
then begins on Tuesday and into Wednesday with temperatures
trending near to above normal. Although timing details are still
a little uncertain, better chances for showers or embedded
storms should exist late in the week into early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Cool and cloudy tonight

Spotty convective showers from today will start to die off as
the sun sets. Winds will diminish but remain from the northwest,
continuing to usher in drier air. Cloud cover will remain as
well. Lows tonight expected to be in the 40s across southern New
England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Cloudy, but slightly warmer and mostly dry

* Gusts around 20 mph possible across the interior, occasionally
  across eastern MA

The low from the late part of the week continues its slow exit
to the northeast into the Maritimes. 925 mb temperatures remain
primarily around 5C, improving to close to 10C heading into
early Monday morning. Highs Sunday improve slightly to the mid
60s as a warming trend begins to take hold, but still remain
below normal. Spotty showers will remain possible and winds
will continue to be northwesterly for much of the day. Gusts to
20 mph will be possible particularly across the interior, but an
occasional gust to 20 mph across the eastern part of the region
cannot be ruled out.

Winds decrease significantly heading into Sunday night with
continued cloud cover. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in
the mid to upper 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Still slightly cooler than normal for Memorial Day Monday, but
  with a bit more sun than over the weekend.

* Warming trend Tue and Wed with mainly dry weather.

* Better chances for showers/t-storms late week into the
  weekend, but timing details are still unclear. Temps around or
  slightly above normal to close out May, then cool off into
  the latter half of the weekend.

Details:

Monday/Memorial Day:

Still under influence of 500 mb troughing for Mon. 925-850 mb temps
are still cooler than normal as well, but we do start a modest warm
advection pattern later in the day. Still wouldn`t rule out a shower
or two in interior Southern New England but the net coverage should
be less than that compared to the rest of the Memorial Day weekend.
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs still in the mid 60s to
low 70s, a couple degrees cooler than normal.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Warming trend then continues in earnest for Tue and Wed with more
sun on Tue and 925 mb temps warming to around +14C. Probably see a
bit more cloud cover on Wed compared to Tue, but think NBM-based
PoPs are also a little overdone based on multi-member ensemble
trends which show a majority of members holding off PoPs until very
late Wed night/early Thurs at earliest. This has been a trend over
the past couple days in the ensembles, and given the NBM looks at
the previous 12-hours worth of guidance it`s probably too slow to
catch up to this trend. Think there is a target of opportunity here
so I opted to reduce PoP toward a drier look Wed, then slowly
increasing them to slight chance range for 2nd half of Wed
night/early Thurs.

Temps finally recover back to more seasonable levels or even
slightly above normal with highs well into the 70s on each day.

Late This Week / Next Weekend:

Still a little uncertain when it comes to the day-to-day specifics
but as 500 mb ridging transitions to one of longwave troughing, this
looks to be yet another unsettled late-week/early-weekend weather
pattern as we close out the month of May. Kept PoPs in the Chance
range given 500 mb trough axis to our west; though it won`t be
raining the whole period of time, there could be a few opportunities
at showers/possible storms with southerly flow offering a rather
moist airmass.

Temps should continue to run around or just above seasonable to
close the month, but then start to cool off and we may start the
month of June with temps running cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

Rest of Today and Tonight...High confidence.

VFR persists into tonight. Scattered showers will continue
through the rest of the day with occasional MVFR possible from
time to time. WNW wind gusts to 20 kt, up to 25 kt over the
Islands.

Tomorrow...High confidence.

VFR. Winds from the NW sustained around 10 kts with gusts to 20
kts possible during the day across southern New England.

BOS TAF...High confidence.

BDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Memorial Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories continue on the southern outer waters through
tonight.

W to NW gusts 15-25 kt with seas 3-5 ft through tonight, on the
higher end of those ranges on the southern waters. Scattered mostly
diurnal showers will continue thru sundown. Similar overall
conditions for Sunday as well, though gusts would be more in the 15-
20 kt range.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Memorial Day through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto