536
FXUS61 KBOX 190722
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
322 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Monitoring potential for downpours
Tuesday and Wednesday along with hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday, although
  dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing
  beaches.

- Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night.
  Another round of soaking downpours is possible, to go along
  with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high surf.

- Drying out late-week with a return to more seasonable
  temperatures and lower humidity levels into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday,
although dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing
beaches.

As of early this morning we`re still watching some lingering showers
and t-storms out on Cape Cod and the Islands, but the anticipated
strong cold front is now working its way central New York, Vermont
and New Hampshire. This feature`s passage before sunrise will bring
about northwesterly breezes (upwards of 25 mph), decreasing cloud
cover and rapidly falling dewpoint temps/humidity levels. In fact
dewpoints in northern New York and Vermont are now in the mid
50s, and diurnal mixing should push these down into the upper
40s! Full sun today with 850 mb temps in the upper single digits
to low teens, but mid-July sun angle and downsloping should
still support highs in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s. We`ll
also have clear air and not the smoky conditions we`ve dealt
with of recent. If you`re headed to the southern beaches though,
swell of 4-7 ft from yesterday`s SW winds will still support a
high risk for rip currents, with rip current statement in
effect for today. That`s the only fly in the ointment though.
Not sure if today qualifies as the pick of summer 2026, but it`s
certainly in the running. Enjoy!

High pressure continues to ridge in tonight and shifts just to our
south on Mon. With easing winds and strong radiational cooling
wouldn`t rule out patchy fog given the wet conditions over the last
24 hrs, but dewpoints will be falling into tonight. Monday`s a touch
warmer but still sunny and pleasant in the low to mid 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday
night. Another round of soaking downpours is possible, to go
along with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high
surf.

Still some details to iron out but weather looks poised to turn
more humid and unsettled again by Tue, continuing potentially
into Wed/Wed night. The next rather strong northern- stream
mid/upper- level disturbance draws northward tropical moisture
from the northeast Gulf Tue into Tue night, along/ahead of a
surface cold front/frontal occlusion which moves offshore into
early Wed. Strong moisture convergence should favor Tue/Tue
night as having the greatest potential for downpours and heavy
rain footprints. Global ensemble QPF probabilities show moderate
to high (40-70%) probs of 24-hour total rains of an inch or
greater, highest over southeast New England, with low (<30%)
probs of 2-inch 24 hr totals. Wind fields also improve too, but
it`s debatable if that translates to severe weather, as most of
the machine learning progs don`t offer much potential. By Wed,
more instability type showers and storms are favored underneath
the upper trough before it begins to pull away later Wed/Wed
night.

Will also make a mention for mariners/beachgoers that southwest
winds pick up substantially Tue night and Wed; ensemble 34-kt
wind progs out on the waters are in the 40-70% range so it`s
very possible gale watches could be needed in the coming days.
Seas expected to build and become rough, reaching upwards of
12 ft on the southern outer waters, so that could support a
need for high surf headlines for south-facing beaches in the
coming days too.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drying out late-week with a return to more
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels into next weekend.

Cyclonic flow aloft will still govern our weather late this week
into the weekend but surface high pressure building in should
support dry weather, lower humidity levels and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Sunday: High confidence.

Initial MVFR/VFR ceilings improve to VFR as a cold front moves
southeastward from 08-12z Sunday. Windshift to NW around 10-12
kt with gusts in the 20-23 kt range.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, gradually easing
late in the day.

Tonight: High confidence.

Mainly VFR; can`t rule out patchy fog/mist toward daybreak given
recent rains, but uncertain on development. NW winds 7-10 kt
early ease to light WSW.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. WSW winds increase to 5-10 kt; potential for a seabreeze at
BOS late morning to midafternoon but it could be short-lived.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

SCAs continue on most waters today as winds shift to NW with
gusts in the 25 to possibly 30 kt range early, but then
gradually decrease into the afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft which will be
slowly decreasing today.

NW winds decrease tonight to 10 kt or less. Good boating weather
Monday as winds turn SW around 10-15 kt.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers, chance
of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MAZ020-022>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ230>237-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto