090
FXUS61 KBOX 281814
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
214 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry this afternoon, though a rogue shower or
  thunderstorm remains possible through sunset.

- A fall-like feel with seasonable temperatures and very low
  humidity Saturday, becoming more summer-like Sunday. The
  weekend remains dry, with increasing clouds late Sunday.

- Cloudy and unsettled early to mid next week with several
  opportunities for showers and storms. While Monday now looks
  cloudy but generally dry, better chances for showers and
  storms are anticipated for Tue through Thurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry this afternoon, though a rogue shower or
thunderstorm remains possible through sunset.

Seasonably warm and muggy this afternoon, though many locations will
remain dry. Earlier cloud cover resulted in lower CAPE values and,
in some instances, a weak cap along and east of I-95. However, that
cap is eroding, with isolated showers and garden-variety
thunderstorms developing. With the approach of a cold front this
afternoon, a rogue pop-up shower or thunderstorm remains possible;
however, coverage should be sparse.

Storms should remain sub-severe, though sufficient DCAPE of 800-1000
J/kg exists mainly west of I-495 in MA and across northern and
central CT. Any storms that develop in these areas could produce
gusty straight-line winds. The best timing for storms is between 2
and 8 PM. With the loss of daytime heating, any storms that develop
will quickly diminish. That being said, there is nothing worth
canceling outdoor plans over.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A fall-like feel with seasonable temperatures and
very low humidity Saturday, becoming more summer-like Sunday. The
weekend remains dry, with increasing clouds late Sunday.

A post-cold-frontal air mass arrives overnight, ushering in
refreshing conditions and setting the stage for a nice weekend. High
pressure moves in from the northwest, leading to dry weather both
Saturday and Sunday.

Dew points Saturday will be fall-like, mainly in the 50s. However,
the lower humidity will be short-lived, as southwest flow returns
Sunday and brings dew points back into the middle and upper 60s.
Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonable Saturday, with highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, then slightly warmer Sunday,
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned, Sunday remains dry, though clouds increase during the
afternoon ahead of the next chance for rain. A few cool nights are
also expected, allowing for a break from the air conditioning.
Temperatures fall into the 50s overnight into Saturday morning and
again Saturday night into Sunday morning, though urban centers
remain in the lower 60s.

Additionally, there is a moderate risk for rip currents Saturday.
Those heading to the beach should check with beach staff or
lifeguards regarding rip current conditions before entering the
water.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cloudy and unsettled early to mid next week
with several opportunities for showers and storms. While Monday
now looks cloudy but generally dry, better chances for showers
and storms are anticipated for Tue through Thurs.

Still looks unsettled during the early to middle part of the
workweek. A backdoor cool front looks to build westward through
Southern New England on Mon with generally dry but cloudy weather,
then remain to our southwest Tue and Wed. Periods of showers and
storms now seem more favored around Tue and Wed versus Mon. Thurs
may offer a better shot at widespread showers and storms regionally,
as a cold front looks to progress the stalled frontal boundary
southward. Expect a narrower range in high/low temps Mon through
Wed, with highs running a little cooler than normal and lows
slightly milder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z...Moderate confidence.

Low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings. A rogue shower or thunderstorm remains
possible across much of southern New England, and PROB30 groups have
been included for TSRA this afternoon. The threat diminishes after
sunset. A weak sea breeze is expected along the eastern MA coast;
otherwise, winds will be W to NW.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Light N winds.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5 to 8 kt, with a sea breeze possible across eastern
MA during the day. Winds shift to the SW overnight, with speeds less
than 5 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence.

Offshore sea breeze is about to reach the terminal. Spot showers
remain possible this afternoon through sunset.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

A cold front clears the coast tonight, with winds shifting from SW
to N by Saturday. However, winds over the waters off the eastern MA
coast remain E due to a localized sea breeze. In general, ideal
boating conditions are expected Saturday.

Winds shift to SSW by Sunday, with gusts of 20 to 25 kt, especially
in areas prone to funneling, such as Vineyard Sound and Buzzards
Bay. Seas during this period will generally range from 2 to 4 ft,
with the highest waves over the outer waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/Dooley
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley