845
FXUS61 KBOX 100513
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
113 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures trend cooler Thursday with continued chances for
showers and storms. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday,
continuing through the weekend before summertime heat and
humidity make a return for the start of the week along with
unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Mild and cloudy with scattered showers and thunder possible

Cloudy skies expected to remain across the region with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up heading into the
evening hours. Cloud cover is expected to build back in over the
interior tonight where some clearing has occurred this afternoon.
Patchy fog across southern New England may also develop overnight.
Lows expected to be in the 60s for most, with some spots approaching
70 in the CT Valley and RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Showers with the potential for heavy downpours throughout the day

A quasi-stationary front makes its way to southern New England then
settles in overhead. Some clearing over western parts of the
interior is possible tomorrow, which could aid in providing some
daytime heating that would favor convective development in the
early afternoon through the evening hours. Highs in western MA
and CT may reach the low 80s while the rest of the region sits
in the low to mid 70s. This area is still in a Marginal risk for
severe weather per SPC, but aside from that, chances for severe
weather remain low. HREF thunder probs are very low across the
region, though a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.
Onshore flow will keep the cooler and cloudier conditions over
eastern MA into RI, which will help limit the convective
potential over this area. Torrential downpours are more likely
as PWATs remain elevated, sitting at around 1.5" to just over
2". It`s worth noting WPC has southern New England under a
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall as we remain under this
moist and warm airmass.

For Thursday night, lows once again sit in the mid 60s with cloudy
skies. Rain clears out heading into Friday as a small low to the
south exits northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Trending drier Friday through the weekend
* Summertime heat and humidity return early next week, with highs in
  the upper 80s to low 90s possible Monday through Wednesday
* Daily chances for isolated, non-severe showers and thunderstorms


Friday through Sunday

After a wet and unsettled week, well begin transitioning to drier
weather Friday into the weekend as an area of high pressure settles
over the coastal waters to our east. This will support
east/southeast flow through Sunday, resulting in relatively cooler
temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s) east of I-495 along with sunny
and dry conditions.

Across the interior, temperatures will be near normal, with daily
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Elevated dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support diurnal instability west of I-495, leading
to a slight chance of a pop-up afternoon shower or thunderstorm
across the interior this weekend.

At this time, there are no signals indicating a risk for severe
thunderstorms, as weak wind fields should suppress the wind shear
needed to support deep moist convection. Any storms that do develop
should collapse relatively quickly. Minimal, if any, thunderstorm
activity is expected across eastern areas, as onshore flow/marine
air should help stabilize the atmosphere.

Monday through Wednesday

Prevailing southwest flow returns on Monday, which will support
rising temperatures across southern New England. Highs will reach
the mid to upper 80s on Monday. A few scattered thunderstorms may
also develop across the interior, as a pulse of shortwave energy
could move through the Northeast Monday afternoon.

There is still no strong signal for the presence of deep-layer wind
shear needed to support severe weather, but some uncertainty remains
this far out.

By Tuesday, ensemble guidance suggests increasing heat, with a
40 to 50% chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees
across southern New England on both Tuesday and Wednesday. While
there is no clear signal for widespread precipitation during
the middle of next week, the typical slight chance for a diurnal
thunderstorm remains possible.

Stay tuned for further details.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...


Tonight...Moderate to high confidence.

IFR/LIFR for much of the region, with low end MVFR/IFR in the CT
river valley. Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to
move into western MA. These cells will be capable of producing
very heavy rain with near zero visibility. Heaviest rain should
end across western terminals around sunrise, while arriving in
eastern terminals between 09-11z.

Thursday...Moderate confidence.

IFR/LIFR with moderate to heavy rain with some embedded thunder
continuing across eastern terminals through 12-15z, 15-18z for
the Cape and Islands. Lingering light rain likely continues past
18z in the east, meanwhile, western terminals could see
isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon, closer to 20-23z.
Unlikely cloud cover clears enough across eastern terminals for
afternoon thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...

IFR/LIFR ceilings return with light/variable easterly. Some
showers/storms possible along the south coast.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence

Ceilings coming down to LIFR with onshore flow. Moderate to
heavy rain with embedded thunder possible this morning through
about 16z, then lighter rain and IFR CIGS for the remainder of
the day. LIFR possible again tonight with onshore flow

KBDL Terminal... High Confidence

MVFR/IFR this morning with moderate to heavy showers and
thunderstorms through about sunrise, then lingering light
showers though the rest of the morning. Isolated thunderstorms
possible this afternoon, mainly after 20-21z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, patchy BR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy FG.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy FG.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy FG.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy FG.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, patchy FG.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy FG.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

Winds to just under 10 kts out of the SW on the southern waters
and out of the NE on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday to Thursday Night: Moderate confidence.

Winds 10-15 kts out of the SSE on the southern waters and out of
the E to NE on the eastern waters. Winds closer to the shores
along the south coast may be more NE. Seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog, slight chance of
rain showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/RM
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Hrencecin/RM