335
FXUS61 KBOX 051136
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
736 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather with low humidity continues today. Very warm
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and rising humidity
levels will lead to high heat indices Sunday and Monday. Unsettled
weather makes a return Monday night, off and on through much of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry today with more sun than clouds.

Mid level height rises will lead to dry weather as surface high
pressure begins to sink to our south. This placement directs light
SW winds into SNE, though WAA doesn`t kick in in earnest until
Sunday when a trough of low pressure passes in closer proximity. A
weak warm front in the mid levels will lead to increasing high
clouds during the day, but there will be more sun than clouds,
helping push high temperatures up into the mid 80s (lower on the
south coast where onshore flow keeps temps in check). Tonight partly
cloudy skies should keep radiational cooling from being as much of
an issue as Friday night, keeping lows about 10 degrees warmer (in
the mid 60s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Hotter with increasing humidity.

The mid level ridge axis crosses New England on Sunday placing us
beneath increasingly breezy SW flow. Warm air and and moisture is
advected north pumping up both the heat and humidity. So, while it
will be breezier, gusting 20 to 30 mph, it will feel much hotter
than Saturday. Dewpoints increase from the 50s to the upper 60s
while high temperatures make it back into the 90s; highest
temperatures will be in the CT and Merrimack valleys while the
coolest spots are on the south coast, thanks again to onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Peak of the heat and humidity Monday.

* Periodic chances of unsettled weather late Monday through the
  week.

Steering flow becomes rather zonal to start the week keeping warm SW
flow around. While no rain is expected during the day, what will be
notable is the 70F+ dewpoints that will make it feel very humid
outside. A weak shortwave moving through the steering flow around
Tuesday with a surface frontal system will bring more clouds heading
into Tuesday along with the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. It remains difficult to nail down when these periodic
bouts of unsettled weather move through, but another trough looks to
move through around Thu/Fri. Temperatures are more seasonable after
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Light wind becoming SSW 8 to 12 knots, some gusts after 18z
may reach 18 to 20 knots. Sea breeze may develop in eastern MA
and coastal RI, confidence in this part of the forecast is low.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. SSW winds across eastern-half of southern New England will
are 10 knots, while western areas are 5 to 8 knots. The SSW flow
ushers in higher humidity, could lead to a FEW or SCT group of
IFR clouds across southern RI and SE MA.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. SSW to SW wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR, SSW to S winds
this morning, have low confidence with a sea breeze, opt`d to
include a PROB30 for ESE wind between 15Z and 19z. Winds aloft
increase 18z to 20z, which should steer the wind direction back
to the SSW 10 to 12 knots, continuing into the overnight. Wind
gusts expected with mixing of the boundary layer Sunday morning
and continues through the afternoon 20 to 25 knots.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday: High confidence.

Tranquil boating weather conditions through Saturday night. SW winds
around 10-15 kt today and tonight. Seas 4 ft or less all waters, and
around 1-2 ft nearshore. No obstructions to visibility expected. SW
winds increase on Sunday, gusting 20-25 kts, as high as 30 kts on
eastern waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     MAZ003>007-010>019-026.
RI...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...BW