Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
445
UXUS97 KBOU 080128
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1926 MDT Tuesday, October 7, 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, October 8, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 73.8 F/23.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 822 ft/min (4.2 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14394 ft MSL (9113 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 78.0 F/26.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8810 ft MSL (3529 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/09..... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 17089 ft MSL (11808 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 10/09........ Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:03:14 / 18:30:30 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 27 min 16 sec (687 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:46:52 MDT... 43.93 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/08/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13614 ft MSL (8333 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16997 ft MSL (11716 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16242 ft MSL (10961 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.6
K index......................... +0.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 275 49 25 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
45000 -57.2 -71.0 275 60 31 4.5 2.5 M M M M M
40000 -50.5 -58.9 270 62 32 3.1 1.7 M M M M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 270 56 29 2.6 1.4 M M M M M
36000 -47.3 -53.1 270 50 26 2.6 1.4 M M M M M
34000 -44.7 -48.5 265 45 23 5.7 3.1 M M M M M
32000 -41.2 -42.2 270 42 22 5.7 3.1 M M M M M
30000 -36.6 -33.9 270 40 20 7.5 4.1 38.8 101.9 10.1 M M
29000 -34.4 -29.9 270 39 20 7.5 4.1 38.0 100.3 9.5 M M
28000 -32.1 -25.8 270 37 19 7.5 4.1 37.2 99.0 9.1 M M
27000 -29.9 -21.8 265 35 18 7.6 4.2 36.3 97.4 8.5 M M
26000 -27.6 -17.7 265 33 17 7.6 4.2 35.4 95.8 7.9 M M
25000 -25.3 -13.5 260 30 16 7.5 4.1 34.7 94.5 7.4 M M
24000 -23.0 -9.4 260 28 14 8.1 4.4 34.0 93.2 6.9 M M
23000 -20.6 -5.1 260 26 14 8.1 4.4 33.3 92.0 6.4 M M
22000 -18.2 -0.8 265 24 13 8.2 4.5 32.8 91.1 6.0 M M
21000 -15.9 3.4 270 24 12 7.1 3.9 31.9 89.5 5.4 M M
20000 -13.8 7.2 275 25 13 7.1 3.9 31.0 87.8 4.6 M M
19500 -12.7 9.1 275 25 13 7.1 3.9 30.6 87.0 4.3 M M
19000 -11.7 10.9 280 26 13 7.0 3.8 30.2 86.3 3.9 M M
18500 -10.7 12.7 280 27 14 6.9 3.8 29.6 85.4 3.5 M M
18000 -9.6 14.7 280 29 15 6.9 3.8 29.2 84.5 3.1 M M
17500 -8.6 16.5 280 30 15 6.8 3.7 28.6 83.6 2.6 M M
17000 -7.6 18.3 280 31 16 6.8 3.7 28.1 82.6 2.2 M M
16500 -6.6 20.1 280 31 16 7.1 3.9 27.7 81.8 1.8 M M
16000 -5.5 22.1 280 31 16 7.2 4.0 27.2 81.0 1.4 M M
15500 -4.5 23.9 280 30 16 7.2 4.0 26.8 80.2 1.0 M M
15000 -3.4 25.9 275 28 15 7.2 4.0 26.4 79.5 0.6 M M
14500 -1.8 28.8 275 25 13 7.7 4.2 25.8 78.4 -0.0 821 4.2
14000 -0.7 30.7 275 23 12 8.0 4.4 25.5 77.8 -0.3 771 3.9
13500 0.5 32.9 275 20 10 8.4 4.6 25.2 77.3 -0.6 721 3.7
13000 1.8 35.2 270 18 9 9.0 4.9 25.0 77.1 -0.7 666 3.4
12500 3.2 37.8 270 16 8 9.1 5.0 24.9 76.9 -0.9 612 3.1
12000 4.5 40.1 270 15 8 9.3 5.1 24.8 76.7 -1.0 556 2.8
11500 5.9 42.6 265 15 8 9.2 5.0 24.8 76.6 -1.1 500 2.5
11000 7.2 45.0 265 13 7 8.5 4.7 24.6 76.3 -1.2 446 2.3
10500 8.5 47.3 260 11 6 6.7 3.7 24.5 76.0 -1.4 392 2.0
10250 8.9 48.0 260 11 6 4.1 2.3 24.1 75.3 -1.8 375 1.9
10000 9.3 48.7 260 10 5 8.4 4.6 23.8 74.8 -2.1 354 1.8
9750 10.1 50.2 255 10 5 11.7 6.4 23.8 74.9 -2.1 324 1.6
9500 10.8 51.4 250 10 5 8.4 4.6 23.9 75.0 -2.0 293 1.5
9250 11.3 52.3 250 9 5 4.0 2.2 23.6 74.5 -2.3 273 1.4
9000 11.5 52.7 250 9 5 4.6 2.5 23.1 73.6 -2.8 258 1.3
8750 11.9 53.4 250 8 4 7.2 3.9 22.8 73.1 -3.1 238 1.2
8500 12.4 54.3 250 8 4 4.1 2.2 22.6 72.7 -3.4 217 1.1
8250 12.5 54.5 245 7 4 0.9 0.5 22.0 71.5 -4.1 207 1.1
8000 12.5 54.5 245 7 4 1.3 0.7 21.3 70.3 -4.8 198 1.0
7750 12.5 54.5 245 6 3 0.4 0.2 20.6 69.1 -5.5 191 1.0
7500 12.4 54.3 245 6 3 -0.9 -0.5 19.9 67.8 -6.3 186 0.9
7250 12.3 54.1 240 5 3 -1.6 -0.9 19.0 66.2 -7.2 183 0.9
7000 12.1 53.8 240 5 2 -1.3 -0.7 18.2 64.7 -8.1 180 0.9
6750 11.9 53.4 235 4 2 -2.9 -1.6 17.3 63.1 -9.1 179 0.9
6500 11.6 52.9 225 4 2 -3.6 -2.0 16.3 61.3 -10.1 181 0.9
6250 11.4 52.5 225 5 3 -2.7 -1.5 15.3 59.5 -11.1 180 0.9
6000 11.2 52.2 220 6 3 -3.5 -1.9 14.3 57.8 -12.1 180 0.9
5750 10.7 51.3 220 6 3 -8.2 -4.5 13.2 55.8 -13.3 185 0.9
5500 9.8 49.6 215 5 2 -14.0 -7.7 11.6 52.9 -15.0 205 1.0
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/08/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/08/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.9 | CAPE... +12.3 LI... +3.7
CINH... -0.0 K Index... -3.3 | CINH... -41.0 K Index... -3.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.7 -82.7 280 45 23 4.0 2.2 | -64.2 -83.6 275 42 21 4.3 2.3
45000 -57.0 -70.6 275 59 31 5.2 2.8 | -57.3 -71.1 280 57 29 4.9 2.7
40000 -49.3 -56.7 275 68 35 2.6 1.4 | -50.0 -58.0 275 66 34 2.7 1.5
38000 -48.2 -54.8 270 61 32 2.0 1.1 | -48.6 -55.5 270 61 31 2.3 1.3
36000 -47.0 -52.6 270 55 28 2.0 1.1 | -47.2 -53.0 270 56 29 2.3 1.3
34000 -44.5 -48.1 270 52 27 5.5 3.0 | -44.6 -48.3 270 52 27 5.5 3.0
32000 -40.8 -41.4 270 49 25 5.6 3.0 | -41.0 -41.8 270 49 25 5.5 3.0
30000 -36.7 -34.1 275 46 24 7.4 4.1 | -36.4 -33.5 270 45 23 8.4 4.6
29000 -34.4 -29.9 275 44 22 7.4 4.1 | -33.9 -29.0 270 42 22 8.4 4.6
28000 -32.2 -26.0 275 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -31.4 -24.5 270 40 21 8.4 4.6
27000 -29.8 -21.6 270 39 20 8.2 4.5 | -29.0 -20.2 270 38 20 7.8 4.3
26000 -27.4 -17.3 270 37 19 8.1 4.5 | -26.7 -16.1 265 36 18 7.8 4.3
25000 -24.9 -12.8 270 35 18 8.2 4.5 | -24.4 -11.9 265 34 17 7.8 4.3
24000 -22.6 -8.7 270 32 17 7.5 4.1 | -22.0 -7.6 265 32 16 7.8 4.3
23000 -20.3 -4.5 265 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -19.7 -3.5 265 29 15 7.8 4.3
22000 -18.1 -0.6 265 27 14 7.5 4.1 | -17.4 0.7 265 27 14 7.9 4.3
21000 -15.8 3.6 265 25 13 7.5 4.1 | -15.1 4.8 270 27 14 7.3 4.0
20000 -13.6 7.5 270 25 13 7.5 4.1 | -13.0 8.6 270 26 13 7.3 4.0
19500 -12.5 9.5 270 24 12 7.5 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 275 26 13 7.3 4.0
19000 -11.4 11.5 275 24 12 7.2 4.0 | -10.8 12.6 275 26 13 6.8 3.7
18500 -10.3 13.5 275 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -9.8 14.4 275 26 13 6.6 3.6
18000 -9.3 15.3 275 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -8.8 16.2 275 26 13 6.6 3.6
17500 -8.3 17.1 280 26 13 6.7 3.7 | -7.3 18.9 275 26 13 6.8 3.7
17000 -6.8 19.8 280 27 14 6.8 3.7 | -6.3 20.7 280 26 13 6.8 3.7
16500 -5.7 21.7 280 27 14 7.2 3.9 | -5.3 22.5 275 26 13 6.5 3.6
16000 -4.7 23.5 280 27 14 7.2 3.9 | -4.4 24.1 275 26 13 6.5 3.6
15500 -3.6 25.5 280 27 14 7.4 4.1 | -3.4 25.9 275 25 13 7.3 4.0
15000 -2.5 27.5 280 27 14 7.4 4.1 | -2.3 27.9 275 24 13 7.3 4.0
14500 -1.4 29.5 280 26 13 7.6 4.2 | -1.2 29.8 275 24 12 7.8 4.3
14000 -0.3 31.5 280 24 13 7.7 4.2 | -0.0 32.0 275 22 12 8.1 4.4
13500 0.9 33.6 280 23 12 7.9 4.3 | 1.2 34.2 275 21 11 8.2 4.5
13000 2.0 35.6 280 21 11 8.1 4.5 | 2.4 36.3 270 20 10 8.3 4.6
12500 3.2 37.8 275 20 10 8.2 4.5 | 3.6 38.5 270 18 9 8.4 4.6
12000 4.5 40.1 275 19 10 8.4 4.6 | 4.9 40.8 270 16 8 8.6 4.7
11500 5.7 42.3 275 17 9 8.4 4.6 | 6.2 43.2 265 15 8 8.6 4.7
11000 6.9 44.4 270 15 8 8.2 4.5 | 7.4 45.3 265 13 7 8.5 4.6
10500 8.2 46.8 270 14 7 6.1 3.3 | 8.7 47.7 260 11 6 5.6 3.1
10250 8.5 47.3 270 13 7 4.1 2.2 | 9.0 48.2 260 11 6 4.8 2.6
10000 9.0 48.2 270 12 6 9.2 5.0 | 9.6 49.3 255 10 5 10.3 5.6
9750 9.8 49.6 265 11 6 12.2 6.7 | 10.4 50.7 250 10 5 11.8 6.5
9500 10.6 51.1 260 10 5 9.4 5.1 | 11.2 52.2 245 9 5 9.5 5.2
9250 11.2 52.2 260 9 5 5.4 3.0 | 11.8 53.2 245 8 4 5.8 3.2
9000 11.6 52.9 255 9 4 7.1 3.9 | 12.3 54.1 240 7 4 8.3 4.6
8750 12.3 54.1 250 8 4 10.5 5.7 | 13.1 55.6 235 7 4 11.7 6.4
8500 13.0 55.4 245 8 4 7.3 4.0 | 13.8 56.8 230 7 4 8.7 4.8
8250 13.3 55.9 245 8 4 4.4 2.4 | 14.4 57.9 225 7 3 6.1 3.3
8000 13.7 56.7 240 7 4 4.9 2.7 | 14.8 58.6 220 6 3 7.6 4.2
7750 14.0 57.2 240 7 4 4.3 2.3 | 15.5 59.9 220 6 3 9.3 5.1
7500 14.2 57.6 240 7 4 1.1 0.6 | 16.1 61.0 215 7 3 5.7 3.1
7250 14.1 57.4 235 7 4 -1.0 -0.6 | 16.3 61.3 210 6 3 2.4 1.3
7000 14.0 57.2 235 7 4 -0.1 -0.0 | 16.5 61.7 210 6 3 4.3 2.4
6750 13.9 57.0 230 7 4 -2.9 -1.6 | 16.9 62.4 205 6 3 7.3 4.0
6500 13.5 56.3 230 7 4 -6.1 -3.3 | 17.4 63.3 205 5 3 6.2 3.4
6250 13.0 55.4 235 7 3 -4.3 -2.4 | 17.7 63.9 205 4 2 5.3 2.9
6000 12.5 54.5 235 6 3 -9.8 -5.4 | 18.0 64.4 200 3 2 2.6 1.4
5750 11.6 52.9 230 5 3 -9.2 -5.1 | 18.1 64.6 195 2 1 8.0 4.4
5500 11.4 52.5 230 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 19.4 66.9 195 2 1 27.1 14.9
10/08/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/08/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.3
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +11.3 | CINH... -0.4 K Index... +12.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.5 -84.1 275 44 23 3.6 2.0 | -65.3 -85.5 275 46 23 3.5 1.9
45000 -58.5 -73.3 275 60 31 5.1 2.8 | -59.0 -74.2 280 64 33 6.2 3.4
40000 -50.8 -59.4 275 62 32 4.5 2.5 | -49.6 -57.3 275 72 37 4.4 2.4
38000 -48.1 -54.6 275 60 31 4.5 2.5 | -46.9 -52.4 275 66 34 4.5 2.4
36000 -45.4 -49.7 275 58 30 4.5 2.5 | -44.2 -47.6 280 60 31 4.5 2.5
34000 -42.6 -44.7 275 51 26 4.1 2.3 | -41.3 -42.3 275 53 27 5.0 2.7
32000 -40.1 -40.2 265 43 22 4.2 2.3 | -38.3 -36.9 275 46 24 5.0 2.8
30000 -35.6 -32.1 265 39 20 8.7 4.8 | -34.6 -30.3 275 41 21 6.8 3.7
29000 -33.0 -27.4 265 38 20 8.7 4.8 | -32.6 -26.7 270 38 20 6.8 3.7
28000 -30.4 -22.7 265 37 19 8.5 4.7 | -30.5 -22.9 270 36 19 6.7 3.7
27000 -28.0 -18.4 265 36 18 7.8 4.3 | -27.7 -17.9 270 34 18 7.7 4.2
26000 -25.7 -14.3 265 35 18 7.8 4.3 | -25.4 -13.7 270 33 17 7.7 4.2
25000 -23.4 -10.1 270 34 17 7.8 4.3 | -23.1 -9.6 265 32 16 7.8 4.3
24000 -21.0 -5.8 270 32 17 8.0 4.4 | -20.9 -5.6 265 29 15 7.4 4.1
23000 -18.6 -1.5 270 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -18.6 -1.5 265 25 13 7.4 4.1
22000 -16.2 2.8 270 29 15 8.3 4.6 | -16.4 2.5 260 22 11 7.3 4.0
21000 -14.3 6.3 270 29 15 5.9 3.2 | -14.6 5.7 260 21 11 5.8 3.2
20000 -12.5 9.5 275 30 15 6.0 3.3 | -12.9 8.8 260 22 11 5.9 3.2
19500 -11.6 11.1 275 30 16 6.0 3.3 | -12.1 10.2 265 22 12 5.9 3.2
19000 -10.8 12.6 275 31 16 5.7 3.1 | -11.2 11.8 265 23 12 6.5 3.5
18500 -9.9 14.2 270 30 15 5.7 3.1 | -10.3 13.5 265 24 12 6.6 3.6
18000 -9.1 15.6 270 29 15 5.8 3.2 | -9.3 15.3 260 24 13 7.1 3.9
17500 -8.1 17.4 270 28 15 7.6 4.1 | -8.1 17.4 260 24 13 8.6 4.7
17000 -7.0 19.4 270 28 14 7.4 4.1 | -6.9 19.6 260 24 12 8.5 4.6
16500 -5.9 21.4 265 27 14 8.1 4.4 | -5.6 21.9 260 24 12 9.7 5.3
16000 -4.1 24.6 265 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -4.1 24.6 260 23 12 9.7 5.3
15500 -2.9 26.8 265 24 12 9.1 5.0 | -2.7 27.1 265 22 11 9.5 5.2
15000 -1.5 29.3 260 22 11 9.1 5.0 | -1.3 29.7 265 21 11 9.3 5.1
14500 -0.2 31.6 260 20 10 8.9 4.9 | 0.1 32.2 265 19 10 9.2 5.1
14000 1.1 34.0 255 18 9 8.8 4.8 | 2.1 35.8 265 18 9 9.2 5.0
13500 2.4 36.3 255 16 8 8.6 4.7 | 3.5 38.3 265 16 8 9.0 4.9
13000 3.7 38.7 250 14 7 8.4 4.6 | 4.8 40.6 260 15 8 8.9 4.9
12500 4.9 40.8 245 12 6 8.5 4.7 | 6.1 43.0 260 13 7 8.8 4.9
12000 6.2 43.2 240 10 5 8.7 4.8 | 7.4 45.3 255 11 6 8.8 4.8
11500 7.5 45.5 230 9 5 8.7 4.8 | 8.7 47.7 250 10 5 8.8 4.8
11000 8.8 47.8 220 8 4 8.6 4.7 | 10.0 50.0 240 8 4 8.5 4.7
10500 10.1 50.2 210 8 4 5.3 2.9 | 11.3 52.3 230 7 4 4.3 2.4
10250 10.4 50.7 205 8 4 5.6 3.1 | 11.5 52.7 225 7 4 5.6 3.1
10000 11.1 52.0 205 7 4 11.1 6.1 | 12.3 54.1 220 6 3 12.0 6.6
9750 11.9 53.4 195 7 4 11.1 6.1 | 13.0 55.4 210 6 3 11.0 6.0
9500 12.7 54.9 190 7 4 8.9 4.9 | 13.8 56.8 200 5 3 8.6 4.7
9250 13.2 55.8 185 7 3 5.7 3.1 | 14.3 57.7 195 5 2 5.4 3.0
9000 13.7 56.7 185 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 14.8 58.6 185 4 2 8.9 4.9
8750 14.5 58.1 175 6 3 12.3 6.8 | 15.6 60.1 165 4 2 11.6 6.3
8500 15.4 59.7 170 5 3 9.5 5.2 | 16.4 61.5 145 4 2 8.8 4.8
8250 16.0 60.8 165 5 3 6.7 3.7 | 16.9 62.4 130 3 2 6.0 3.3
8000 16.5 61.7 160 5 3 9.4 5.2 | 17.4 63.3 120 3 2 8.6 4.7
7750 17.4 63.3 160 5 2 12.6 6.9 | 18.2 64.8 105 4 2 11.2 6.1
7500 18.2 64.8 155 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 19.0 66.2 090 4 2 9.2 5.1
7250 18.8 65.8 150 4 2 7.5 4.1 | 19.6 67.3 085 4 2 7.5 4.1
7000 19.5 67.1 150 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 20.1 68.2 075 4 2 8.8 4.8
6750 20.3 68.5 145 4 2 11.9 6.5 | 20.9 69.6 065 5 2 10.2 5.6
6500 21.1 70.0 145 4 2 10.6 5.8 | 21.6 70.9 060 5 2 9.1 5.0
6250 21.8 71.2 140 3 2 8.5 4.7 | 22.2 72.0 055 5 2 7.4 4.1
6000 22.5 72.5 140 3 2 10.8 5.9 | 22.8 73.0 050 5 3 10.2 5.6
5750 23.5 74.3 135 3 2 14.4 7.9 | 23.5 74.3 045 5 2 5.8 3.2
5500 24.6 76.3 130 3 1 15.3 8.4 | 23.4 74.1 040 4 2 -8.5 -4.7
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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