Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
136
FNUS75 KBOU 271038
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Preserve Piles...Elk Creek FPD
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
338 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers will be relatively frequent this morning, with generally
light to moderate intensity. Coverage and frequency of snow showers will
diminish substantially by the afternoon and end completely by this evening.
Additional accumulations between 2 and 5 inches are expected for the unit
from now (0330) through this afternoon.
Prevailing wind direction will be from the northeast most of the day
following an early morning cold front, with gusts up to 15 mph. Expect
wind direction to become more variable between 2-5PM before it transitions
to light west-northwest drainage flow by this evening. Winds on Thursday
will be light.
Cloud cover will clear overnight, with mostly sunny sky conditions for
Thanksgiving.
Due to very light transport winds, smoke dispersal is anticipated to be
poor for the majority of the day, although a brief window of Fair conditions
is possible (60% chance) between 11am-3pm. Similar dispersal conditions are
expected Thursday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow until 1400,
then snow likely until 1700.
CWR.................74 percent decreasing to 3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 28.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph until 1700, then
west around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph until 0800, then light until
0900, then north 8 to 14 mph until 1600, then
light.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 99 99 94 90 86 82 78 74
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70 70 70 70 20 20 20 30 30 30 0
Chc of pcpn (%).90 90 90 90 80 80 80 50 50 50 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............25 26 26 27 27 26 26 26 26 23 19
RH..............93 85 83 79 74 71 71 68 68 74 80
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 10 13 13 12 9 9 9 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6 1.4 1.2
Transp wind dir.N NE N N N N N N N E N
Transp wind spd.8 7 10 14 15 15 15 11 8 7 5
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 17 29 41 44 40 27 18 9 5
SmokeDispersion.P P P P F F F P P P P
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 1900, then
partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 9 above.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph until 2000, then west 8 to
11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........61 48 35 30 26 21 21 22 22 18 15 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............17 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 11
RH..............79 79 75 71 68 65 62 60 62 62 66 66
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 16 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.6 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P P P P P P P
.THANKSGIVING DAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 33.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to around 20
mph until 1200, then variable up to 5 mph until
1300, then northwest around 5 mph until 1500,
then variable up to 5 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 2700 ft AGL
until 1700, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph until 1500. Light after 1700.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10 10 9 11 13 15 14 12 11 12 13 13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............10 12 15 19 24 29 31 33 32 30 27 23
RH..............69 63 58 54 50 44 43 41 43 44 48 54
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W NW NW NW W W
20 FT wind spd..10 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.16 20 18 16 14 12 10 10 10 9 8 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 8 7 7 6
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 6 6 11 23 38 40 40 21 14 8 4
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P F F P P P P
$$
Forecaster...Rodriguez
Requested by...Jayson Papenfus
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427397.0/BOU
.DELDT 11/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpapenfus@elkcreekfire.org