541
FXUS65 KBOU 151738
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1038 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions today for portions of the
  eastern plains. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
  likely again on Monday for much of the eastern plains and
  southern I-25 corridor.

- Very windy with critical to extremely critical fire weather
  conditions possible Tuesday for the lower foothills eastward
  across all of the eastern Colorado plains.

- Additional fire weather concerns for elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

- Snow returns to the mountains early Tuesday. Snow and blowing
  snow will likely lead to travel impacts across most of the
  higher elevations beginning Tuesday. Additional mountain snow
  possible Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1143 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Near record high temperatures are forecast for Sunday as a ridge
axis sits over the region. Mid-level (700mb) temperatures are
expected to warm to about +3 to +5C this afternoon, with enough of
a westerly downslope component to the flow aloft to push
temperatures into the mid to upper 60s. With most of the CWA right
on the northern extent of the thermal ridge, the warmer
temperatures will likely end up south of I-76 with temperatures
closer to the low/mid 60s for Fort Collins and Greeley. Some
elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely across
the plains, but will be somewhat localized to where gustier
southwesterly winds are able to develop.

We`ll gradually start to see more influence from a trough over
the Pacific coast by Monday, as southwesterly flow aloft begins to
develop and strengthen. Once again warm mid-level temperatures
will lead well above normal temperatures, with upper 60s to
perhaps low 70s possible across the plains. The combination of
warm and dry conditions will lead to some fire weather concerns
yet again, but winds look to be considerably weaker across most of
the I-25 corridor during the afternoon hours. We did consider
trimming the areal extent of Monday`s fire weather watch, but left
it as is. See the Fire Wx section of the AFD for additional
details on all of our current highlights.

The first shortwave associated with the broader western US trough
ejects into Colorado by Tuesday. While moisture depths aren`t
particularly impressive across the mountains, well-aligned west-
southwesterly flow combined with steepening sfc-400mb lapse rates
should lead to a gradual increase in snow showers across the
mountains during the day. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will
be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially with support
(albeit brief) from increasing PVA/QG ascent and our favorable,
left exit quadrant of a 150kt jet streak. Across the plains, fire
weather will be the main concern for Tuesday... though model
trends have slowly started to back away from the higher end
scenarios shown over the last couple of days. While the overall
synoptic trends are subtle, it is at least worth discussing.
First, the timing of the shortwave and the subsequent cold air
advection/bora remains up in the air... with a subsident regime
(which would favor better mixing/gusty winds) potentially holding
off until late in the afternoon or evening. On a similar note,
some guidance is rather bullish developing at least scattered
showers across the foothills/I-25 corridor Tuesday AM, again
likely aided by the favorable jet position at the time. Most of
the 00z deterministic guidance has backed off quite a bit with
maximum wind gusts Tuesday afternoon as a response, and it will be
worth monitoring if that trend continues.

As we get to mid-week and beyond, the forecast pattern remains
relatively consistent over the mountains but considerably less
certain across the plains. At least two additional shortwaves are
expected to race across the CWA on Wednesday/Wednesday night and
again Friday into Friday night, leading to additional rounds of
light to moderate mountain snow. We`ll likely need some winter
highlights through most of the week for most of the mountain
zones, but it`s still a little early to try to sort out the best
way to handle the multiple periods of snow/blowing snow. Across
the plains, the main question will be where the main surface
baroclinic zone and subsequent lee cyclogenesis sets up. The
general consensus across guidance is that each shortwave will
shove that zone further south - meaning that the surface low may
develop right over our CWA on Wednesday and closer to southeast
Colorado by Friday/Saturday. Gusty winds and elevated/critical
fire weather conditions are likely to the south wherever the low
develops, though again we appear to be trending towards the
cooler/wetter(?) side of this regime as we get through the week.
A couple models are actually pretty close to producing some snow
across the lower elevations towards the end of the week, which
would be a welcome pattern change (at least in this forecaster`s
opinion).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1033 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today...VFR. We hold onto the southerly winds a tad longer before
a more northwest push occurs closer to 21Z at all the terminals.
There will likely be a period, maybe an hour, where the winds go
light and variable during the transition. Winds then continue to
turn more northeast during the evening pushes over the TRACON
airspace. High confidence.

Tonight/Monday...VFR. Light and variable leading to drainage winds
tonight into mid-Monday morning is expected. Some guidance is
hinting at a possible DCVZ, albeit weak, developing late morning.
We introduce a stronger west of south wind for the afternoon
hours, 19-20Z, based on the DCVZ placement. Medium to high
confidence.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

An extended period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions
remains likely through at least Tuesday. Sunday will feature some
elevated to critical conditions, mainly along a narrow corridor
from roughly Limon to Akron to Julesburg during the afternoon
hours.

Monday`s fire weather forecast remains rather difficult. While
confidence in the well above normal temperatures and low humidity
is high, the wind forecast remains challenging during the daytime
hours. As a general rule, southwesterly flow aloft often shelters
most of the urban corridor and some of the adjacent plains
(typically along/north of I-76), while some of the exposed
portions of the southern Foothills can tap into the flow aloft.
Unsurprisingly, our initial look at the overnight CAMs would
support that pattern... with most of the Denver metro and
foothills below ~7000ft remaining sheltered through most of the
day. While we did not make any changes to the existing Fire
Weather Watch, I suspect that we`ll eventually need to trim the
extent of that as we get closer to Monday. We would favor the
Palmer Divide, eastern Adams/Arapahoe and most of
Lincoln/Washington counties as the most likely spot for critical
fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

Tuesday remains the most likely day for widespread critical fire
weather conditions as more widespread wind develops across the
lower elevations. Again, the main questions in this period are (1)
how much moisture spills over into the foothills/I-25 corridor,
and (2) just how strong are the winds going to get during the
afternoon? If the last couple model cycles are to be believed, our
forecast is a bit drier/windier than a multi-model consensus (see
the main discussion section for what`s changed), but nonetheless
virtually every model would support fairly widespread critical
conditions across the lower elevations, especially east of I-25
where better overlap of the gusty winds/low RH is forecast.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may also be possible
Wednesday or Thursday, though again recent trends would support a
quicker transition to a cooler/unsettled pattern across the
foothills and plains in this period. We`ll continue to monitor
forecast trends but at this time no additional fire weather
highlights are planned beyond Tuesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ216-240-241-244>247-249.

Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ246-
249>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Heavener
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris