523
FXUS65 KBOU 051948
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
148 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains
  this afternoon.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Friday
  afternoon.

- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms.

- Sunday into next week, near normal temperatures with chances for
  showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms first started forming over the higher
terrain late this morning. Low clouds may have delayed showers and
storms moving off the higher terrain by an hour or two, but
scattered to numerous showers and storms are still on track to for
the urban corridor and eastern plains this afternoon and evening
as a shortwave trough tracks across the region. MLCAPE is up to
1000 J/kg and there`s plenty of moisture and shear to support
strong, to occasionally severe thunderstorms with hail a little
over 1 inch in diameter. Many runs of the HRRR and the last couple
of the NAMNest show a strong/severe storm forming over northern
Weld County and then tracking southeast across Morgan and
Washington Counties through the afternoon hours. This is where the
highest severe weather threat will be. Elsewhere, heavy rain,
small hail (mostly), and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible
with the stronger storms. The storms come to an end mid to late
evening as the airmass stabilizes and storms move off to the east.
A few light showers will be possible after midnight.

Another shortwave trough is on track to trigger scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday. It will remain moist
with dew points in the lower to mid 50s over northeast Colorado.
Similar to today, instability will be marginal for severe
thunderstorms with MLCAPE up to 800 J/kg. The strongest storms are
expected to produce hail up to around 1 inch in diameter and
brief heavy rainfall. The first storms of the day form over the
mountains late in the morning and then spread eastward during the
afternoon hours. Showers and storms progress east of the urban
corridor by early to mid evening and then east of the area by
midnight.

On Saturday, we are still looking for drier northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s under mostly
sunny skies. We see a cold front push south through the area
during the evening, but with a drier and more stable airmass in
place, do not expect this to produce any showers or thunderstorms.
North to northeast flow behind the front will slowly increase
moisture across the area.

Better moisture and instability will be over the area again
Sunday. This combined with a shortwave embedded in the northwest
flow aloft will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures cool a little for Sunday
as well with highs across northeast Colorado in the 70s.

For Monday and Tuesday, a weak upper level ridge tracks across
the Great Basin and Central Rockies. This will bring warmer
temperatures with highs returning to the lower to mid 80s across
northeast Colorado by Tuesday. With enough moisture and
instability in place, we expect daily afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms. Though coverage may end up a little less than
we`ve seen this week.

The ridging slides east of the area by Wednesday and west-
southwest flow aloft is expected to prevail for Wednesday and
Thursday. Chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
continue. Increased coverage of showers/storms will be possible if
we see a more organized shortwave trough. Temperatures look to be
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are still on track for this afternoon
and evening, mainly during 21Z to 03Z. Multiple rounds of
showers/storms are expected. Ceilings are expected to fall below
6000 feet this evening, ~03Z. Clouds continue to lower overnight
with ceilings bottoming out 500 to 1500 feet 12-15Z Friday.
Ceilings slowly rise through the morning hours, but will likely
keep a ceiling below 3000 feet through 18Z Friday.

After 18Z Friday, more showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Models favor at least two rounds of thunderstorms, with the first
one in the 19-21Z window.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier