415
FXUS65 KBOU 061946
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
146 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms through mid
  evening.

- Severe storms possible this afternoon with hail and damaging
  wind gusts the primary threats, mainly south and east of the
  Denver area.

- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms.

- Sunday into next week, near normal temperatures with chances for
  showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Shortwave trough will continue to trigger numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There`s ample shear and moisture to
support strong to severe thunderstorms. The biggest question mark
is instability. Morning showers and cloud cover has kept northern
parts of the Front Range and the plains east of them cool with
noon temperatures only in the 50s. Best chance for severe
thunderstorms will be where it warmed into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Looking at satellite and observations, this roughly just east
of the Denver area and south of I-70. Primary threat will be
large hail, up to 2 inches in diameter, at first. As storms
increase, a cluster or two could produce damaging winds to 70 mph.
An isolated tornado is possible, mainly along a boundary across
Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties. Showers and storms are
expected to be east of the Denver area by 8PM and east of the
forecast area by midnight. Skies clear overnight which could lead
to patchy fog in low lying areas.

Drier subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail over the area
Saturday. Other than patchy morning fog in the South Platte River
Valley north of Denver, skies will be mostly sunny to start the
day. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid
80s across northeast Colorado. High-based cumulus clouds are
expected to form during the afternoon hours and could produce a
few isolated dry microbursts with winds to 30 mph.

A weak push from the north Saturday night will help to increase
low level moisture over northeast Colorado and bring cooler
temperatures for Sunday. Highs for Sunday look to reach the lower
to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. The increase in moisture
will also help fuel isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

For Monday, an upper level ridge will reside over the Great Basin
with weak north-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. This ridge
slides over the Central Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly
warm up Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching the lower to mid
80s Tuesday. The latest model trends keep most/all of the showers
and thunderstorms over the central and southwest Colorado
mountains. With ridging overhead and weak flow aloft, little to no
forcing is expected. This seems reasonable, and will be lowering
PoPs and keeping the low PoPs confined to over/near the higher
terrain.

For Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east
of the region and is replaced with a west-southwest flow aloft.
We`ll likely see a return to isolated/scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms under this pattern, most
numerous over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be near normal
to slightly above with highs reaching the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Stratocumulus clouds continue to lift and scatter out. Skies to
stay sct-bkn with cumulus clouds forming ahead of a shortwave
trough with ceilings heights reaching 5000 to 7000 feet. The main
thunderstorm threat time across the Denver area looks to be
20-01Z. Outflow winds will likely produce a gusty wind shift or
two.

Skies become mostly clear mid to late evening 04-06Z and are
expected to stay mostly clear through Saturday morning. There is a
threat for fog, especially north of DEN toward GXY and FNL. If
south winds persist through the night and Saturday morning as
expected this should keep fog from forming. Some high-based
cumulus may form Saturday afternoon and produce dry microbursts
with gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier