751
FXUS65 KBOU 231922
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
122 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing strong winds,
  heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding.

- Storm coverage expected to decrease for Friday into Saturday but
  may increase again by Sunday, with highest coverage over the
  higher terrain.

- Temperatures will rise back into the upper 90`s to lower 100`s
  over northeast Colorado for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered to numerous storms are expected across the area today. As
of early this afternoon, dewpoints are in the 50s to mid 60s for
much of the plains and portions of the mountains. PWs are still
sitting near the 99th percentile to the climatological max for
this time of the year. Flow aloft is a bit faster today compared
to yesterday, so storms will be moving quicker (which will help
lower the flash flooding potential). However, since quite a few
areas have seen rain the past few days, certain areas will have
lower flash flood thresholds and will be more susceptible to flash
flooding with any heavy rain that moves over. Along with the
heavy rain and flash flooding threat, we`ll also need to monitor
storms for strong winds associated with microbursts or strong
outflows. Most areas will likely see around a half an inch or
less, but there will be localized areas that see multiple inches
of rain today.

The upper level ridge will start to build east over the area on
Friday. The ridge will continue to build into the weekend, with the
center of the high sitting near or over Colorado Saturday and
Sunday. As of the most recent model runs, the majority of
ensemble members of the GFS and Euro have temperatures at or above
100 degrees for Denver on Sunday. Even warmer temperatures are
expected across the eastern plains on Sunday, with a few spots in
the northeastern plains sitting at a 30-50% chance of highs
reaching 105. A Heat Advisory may be needed across portions of the
Urban Corridor and NE plains for Sunday if the forecast holds.

The upper high will weaken slightly and shift a bit more east and
south for early next week. This could be enough to let a few weak
disturbances move through the flow aloft. We could also start to
see an increase in moisture Sunday into early next week, helping
bring rain chances back to the plains. Temperatures next week are
still a bit uncertain. Some models are holding onto the triple
digit temperatures through Monday, while others drop temperatures
a few degrees with the weakening of the thermal ridge and
increased precip chances. There will likely be a surface low near
the region next week, which could bring a weak front through the
area. The impact of the front will be pretty minimal, but it
could drop temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

North to northeast are expected to continue the next few hours
ahead of the thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected this afternoon and early evening, mainly 20-02Z
across the Denver area. Very heavy rain and strong outflow winds
to 45 knots will accompany the stronger thunderstorms. Outflow
winds likely produce a wind shift or two through 02Z. Winds then
settle a southerly wind direction 02-04Z. Threat for storms Friday
will be lower, and later (after 00Z Saturday).

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...12