


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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754 FXUS65 KBOU 020156 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 756 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated threat for wind gusts to 60 mph from thunderstorms over the far northeast plains yet this evening. - Hot Wednesday. Any thunderstorm activity confined to mountains. - Storm chances increase Thursday and Thursday night. - A chance of thunderstorms and normal temperatures are expected for the Fourth of July and Independence Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Convective inhibition was weakening on the plains per latest SPC analysis, and we`re starting to see some surface based cumulus on the plains. Thus, we still expect isolated to scattered storms to develop onto the lower elevations with a bit more surface heating. Those will continue through early evening, slowly migrating eastward before the airmass stabilizes again late this evening. The main hazard will be strong, gusty microburst winds given DCAPE of 1400-1600 J/kg, and a couple severe gusts of 60 mph over the northeast plains. For Wednesday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward across the forecast area. This means a stronger cap, hot temperatures (mid 90s for the plains), and less convective activity. While a few showers/weak storms are still expected over the mountains, the plains will almost certainly stay dry with southerly flow aloft keeping the convection confined to the high country. For Thursday, we`re still on track to see a plume of sub-tropical moisture move northward into Colorado, in the southerly flow between the upper level high shifting into the Southern Plains and a weak trough lifting across the Desert Southwest. As a result, Thursday`s convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase, with likely the best chance (30-60%) of rain this week. With regard to the Independence Day weather, we`re still seeing mixed signals in the ensemble output. Most have the Desert Southwest trough ejecting northeast across the forecast area by mid day, while a few are still slower. The slower ones (about 20-30% of output) would suggest a higher chance of thunderstorms, at least for the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the majority (70-80%) being faster would suggest less coverage of somewhat weaker storms, and also an earlier departure for evening events. Typical summer weather is then expected through the Independence Day weekend, with temperatures at/just above normal levels and a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon and evening. MLCAPE does build across the plains, so a couple strong/severe storms would be possible mainly east of the I-25 Corridor during this time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 751 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The plethora of boundary causing wind shifts at DIA has appeared to have subsided for the evening. Winds should eventually get to normal drainage patterns by 04Z-05Z. There will be no ceiling issues. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION.....rjk