185
FXUS65 KBOU 050526
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1126 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Monday with a chance of light showers late day
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the plains
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Unsettled weather pattern Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Skies are clear across the forecast area at this time.  Winds are
mainly light from the south and southeast across the plains with
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Upper ridging aloft west of Colorado is progged to push slowly
eastward through Sunday on into the CWA by Monday morning as it
flattens out. Weak west-northwesterly flow aloft is expected over
the CWA tonight through Tuesday. Upper troughing is progged to
move in late Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing west-
northwesterly flow aloft. This will bring a cold front across the
plains Tuesday night.

The QG Omega fields show benign synoptic scale energy over the
forecast area from now through Tuesday night, with some upward
energy progged late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Moisture is sparse for the CWA overnight tonight through Monday with
just some upper level cloudiness here and there. Cross sections
show moisture deepening somewhat Monday night and Tuesday. There
may be enough instability around later Monday, Tuesday and late
day Wednesday to warrant a 20-50% chance of showers. Chances will
be highest in the mountains. Significant precipitation is not
expected.

Humidity levels will drop into the 12-20 percent range Wednesday
afternoon.  Winds gust speeds will be around 20 knots so elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours
mainly over the plains.

Temperatures look to be running a bit above normals Sunday through
Tuesday, with highs in the 60s over the plains all three days.
Wednesday`s highs could be a tad more than 10 degrees above seasonal
normals reaching the lower 70s on the plains.

For the later periods, Thursday through Sunday, southwesterly
flow aloft is progged on Friday through Sunday with upper troughing
in play for Monday. Confidence is low by the end of the period with
various medium range models in poor agreement.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the forecast period.
Winds have been light throughout today. GOES satellite imagery
shows mid-level cloud cover well north of all three sites- closer
to a Greeley to Fort Morgan line. The latest hi-res models have
varying wind directions late tonight into tomorrow, but there is
strong agreement that wind speeds will remain light (at or below
10 kts). Therefore, we have VRB winds for the early hours of
Sunday through Sunday morning at KDEN and KAPA. At KBJC, winds
will be light and VRB this evening before eventually turning NW
early tomorrow morning, but staying light. Tomorrow afternoon,
winds should move from SE to E around 21-23z. Then, winds will
turn to S around 2z-4z with light wind speeds continuing (at or
below 10 kts). Soundings and humidity cross sections show low
moisture tomorrow, so expect clear conditions with a few mid to
high level clouds possible tomorrow evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...MV