482
FXUS65 KBOU 141125
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
525 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with showers and thunderstorms over northern areas
  of the plains by mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts from 55 to
  65 mph may occur with the stronger storms.

- Although very windy conditions and low humidity levels will
  occur over the Palmer Divide and east central plains this
  afternoon, recent green up may decrease the fire danger
  somewhat.

- Potential for strong winds in and near the foothills late
  tonight through mid morning on Thursday.  A few gusts from
  70 to 75 mph may occur in the normal windy areas.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm activity expected again
  starting Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Today Through Thursday Morning/
...Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

A complex upper level trough will move across the the central and
nrn Rockies today through tonight.

Things to watch include the following:

1. Potential for strong wind gusts associated with late aftn/early
evening showers and tstms across nrn portions of the plains.  Hi res
data has been very consistent showing a band of 50-60 mph winds,
with a few gusts from 65-70 mph, moving across portions of nern CO
from nern Weld county into Morgan county and points eastward. In
addition, certainly can`t rule out a few gustnadoes occurring along
the leading edge of the activity as well.

2. Elevated fire conditions will occur across the Palmer Divide
and east central plains this aftn due to gusty SW winds and low
humidity. However, green up has begun which may help reduce the
potential fire threat.

3. There appears to some threat for a brief period of strong winds
late tonight thru mid morning on Thu, in and near the base of the
foothills, as favorable subsidence develops along with with cross
barrier flow in the 45-50 kt range. Confidence level isn`t high
enough to issue a High Wind Watch, however, wouldn`t be surprised
to see a few wind gusts from 70-75 mph between 5 am and 9 am Thu
morning in the normal windy areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds have become ESE early this morning and may trend more
northeast by 14z as a boundary moves in.  Winds should then
become more easterly by 16z and then back to ESE by 19z. Latest
data keeps a sfc low and boundary to the SW of DIA so that may
allow winds to remain more ESE before cold front moves across by
22z or 23z. Still expect a few hours of gusty NW winds behind
front with speeds up to 45 mph possible. By 00Z winds will become
more northerly with gusts up to 30 mph thru 02z. Later this
evening winds will eventually go to drainage. Finally will just
keep in VCSH for now as it appears most shower and tstm activity
will stay to the north from 22z to 02z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK